Estimating marginal cohort working life expectancies from sequential cross-sectional survey data

This article applies recently developed health expectancy methodologies to estimate the average duration of future work life in different states of work ability. Data on working capacity obtained from sequential cross-sectional samples of the cohort population were available from Finnish surveys conducted among active municipal employees. We used these data to estimate cohort marginal probabilities and expected occupancy times in the work ability states. One finding is that the proportion of workers with excellent or good work ability decreased monotonically with advancing age for both genders, but men were prone to have worse work ability and a shorter work career than women. Transition from poor to good or excellent work ability state was estimated to increase working life expectancy of a 45-year-old person by four years for both genders. This study indicates that the work ability of aging Finnish workers deteriorates prematurely, leading to serious socio-economic consequences. Thus it is important to examine the development of work ability already at an early age when it is still possible to intervene in the process

Estimating cohort health expectancies from cross-sectional surveys of disability

A life history can be regarded as a random process that evolves with age through various states of health before terminating with absorption into the state of death. Health expectancies are the occupation times of the non-absorbing states and their estimation is of interest. A continuing major problem has been the lack of satisfactory longitudinal data on which to base estimates and as a result standard inferential techniques may not be relevant. Supposing only cross-sectional data available, we propose a method that is generally applicable and first estimates a logistic parametrization of the probabilities of the various states. A large sample approximation is obtained for the distribution of age specific log (odds). Parameters are estimated by weighted least squares, and this in turn leads to estimates of cohort health expectancies. A result of Liang and Zeger is used to find standard errors. The method is illustrated by application to Australian data from the health surveys of 1981, 1988 and 1993

On the Hydrodynamic Interaction of Shock Waves with Interstellar Clouds. II. The Effect of Smooth Cloud Boundaries on Cloud Destruction and Cloud Turbulence

The effect of smooth cloud boundaries on the interaction of steady planar shock waves with interstellar clouds is studied using a high-resolution local AMR technique with a second-order accurate axisymmetric Godunov hydrodynamic scheme. A 3D calculation is also done to confirm the results of the 2D ones. We consider an initially spherical cloud whose density distribution is flat near the cloud center and has a power-law profile in the cloud envelope. When an incident shock is transmitted into a smooth cloud, velocity gradients in the cloud envelope steepen the smooth density profile at the upstream side, resulting in a sharp density jump having an arc-like shape. Such a ``slip surface'' forms immediately when a shock strikes a cloud with a sharp boundary. For smoother boundaries, the formation of slip surface and therefore the onset of hydrodynamic instabilities are delayed. Since the slip surface is subject to the Kelvin-Helmholtz and Rayleigh-Taylor instabilities, the shocked cloud is eventually destroyed in $\sim 3-10$ cloud crushing times. After complete cloud destruction, small blobs formed by fragmentation due to hydrodynamic instabilities have significant velocity dispersions of the order of 0.1 $v_b$, where $v_b$ is the shock velocity in the ambient medium. This suggests that turbulent motions generated by shock-cloud interaction are directly associated with cloud destruction. The interaction of a shock with a cold HI cloud should lead to the production of a spray of small HI shreds, which could be related to the small cold clouds recently observed by Stanimirovic & Heiles (2005). The linewidth-size relation obtained from our 3D simulation is found to be time-dependent. A possibility for gravitational instability triggered by shock compression is also discussed.Comment: 62 pages, 16 figures, submitted to Ap

Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts

The 2021 Pacific Northwest heatwave was so extreme as to challenge conventional statistical and climate-model-based approaches to extreme weather attribution. However, state-of-the-art operational weather prediction systems are demonstrably able to simulate the detailed physics of the heatwave. Here, we leverage these systems to show that human influence on the climate made this event at least 8 [2–50] times more likely. At the current rate of global warming, the likelihood of such an event is doubling every 20 [10–50] years. Given the multi-decade lower-bound return-time implied by the length of the historical record, this rate of change in likelihood is highly relevant for decision makers. Further, forecast-based attribution can synthesise the conditional event-specific storyline and unconditional event-class probabilistic approaches to attribution. If developed as a routine service in forecasting centres, it could provide reliable estimates of human influence on extreme weather risk, which is critical to supporting effective adaptation planning

Pharmacological interventions for chronic pain in children:an overview of systematic reviews

We know little about the safety or efficacy of pharmacological medicines for children and adolescents with chronic pain, despite their common use. Our aim was to conduct an overview review of systematic reviews of pharmacological interventions that purport to reduce pain in children with chronic noncancer pain (CNCP) or chronic cancer-related pain (CCRP). We searched the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Medline, EMBASE, and DARE for systematic reviews from inception to March 2018. We conducted reference and citation searches of included reviews. We included children (0-18 years of age) with CNCP or CCRP. We extracted the review characteristics and primary outcomes of ≥30% participant-reported pain relief and patient global impression of change. We sifted 704 abstracts and included 23 systematic reviews investigating children with CNCP or CCRP. Seven of those 23 reviews included 6 trials that involved children with CNCP. There were no randomised controlled trials in reviews relating to reducing pain in CCRP. We were unable to combine data in a meta-analysis. Overall, the quality of evidence was very low, and we have very little confidence in the effect estimates. The state of evidence of randomized controlled trials in this field is poor; we have no evidence from randomised controlled trials for pharmacological interventions in children with cancer-related pain, yet cannot deny individual children access to potential pain relief. Prospero ID: CRD42018086900.</p

A consensus guide to capturing the ability to inhibit actions and impulsive behaviors in the stop-signal task

© Verbruggen et al. Response inhibition is essential for navigating everyday life. Its derailment is considered integral to numerous neurological and psychiatric disorders, and more generally, to a wide range of behavioral and health problems. Response-inhibition efficiency furthermore correlates with treatment outcome in some of these conditions. The stop-signal task is an essential tool to determine how quickly response inhibition is implemented. Despite its apparent simplicity, there are many features (ranging from task design to data analysis) that vary across studies in ways that can easily compromise the validity of the obtained results. Our goal is to facilitate a more accurate use of the stop-signal task. To this end, we provide 12 easy-to-implement consensus recommendations and point out the problems that can arise when they are not followed. Furthermore, we provide user-friendly open-source resources intended to inform statistical-power considerations, facilitate the correct implementation of the task, and assist in proper data analysis

ACCESS-OM2 v1.0: A global ocean-sea ice model at three resolutions

We introduce ACCESS-OM2, a new version of the ocean–sea ice model of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator. ACCESS-OM2 is driven by a prescribed atmosphere (JRA55-do) but has been designed to form the ocean–sea ice component of the fully coupled (atmosphere–land–ocean–sea ice) ACCESS-CM2 model. Importantly, the model is available at three different horizontal resolutions: a coarse resolution (nominally 1∘ horizontal grid spacing), an eddy-permitting resolution (nominally 0.25∘), and an eddy-rich resolution (0.1∘ with 75 vertical levels); the eddy-rich model is designed to be incorporated into the Bluelink operational ocean prediction and reanalysis system. The different resolutions have been developed simultaneously, both to allow for testing at lower resolutions and to permit comparison across resolutions. In this paper, the model is introduced and the individual components are documented. The model performance is evaluated across the three different resolutions, highlighting the relative advantages and disadvantages of running ocean–sea ice models at higher resolution. We find that higher resolution is an advantage in resolving flow through small straits, the structure of western boundary currents, and the abyssal overturning cell but that there is scope for improvements in sub-grid-scale parameterizations at the highest resolution.This research has been supported by the Australian Research Council (grant nos. LP160100073, CE170100023, FT13101532, DP160103130 and DE170100184), the International Space Science Institute (grant no. 406), and the Australian Antarctic Science (grant nos. 4301 and 4390)