An Evaluation of the Intermediation Role of Hong Kong in Chinese Foreign Trade

Two different data sources can be used to study Hong Kong's role in intermediating China's foreign trade. One is the bilateral trade statistics between Hong Kong and the Chinese Mainland reported by National Bureau of Statistics of China, and the other is the bilateral trade statistics published by Census and Statistics Department, Hong Kong. The corresponding statistics are not comparable to each other because of the different statistical criteria adopted by each source. Hong Kong's intermediation role has been declining since the mid-1990s. A major long-run factor contributing to the decline is the structural change in Hong Kong's industry led by Hong Kong direct investment in China. The Chinese currency appreciation will have a further negative effect on Hong Kong's intermediation role. Hong Kong's offshore trade has increased rapidly in recent years, but its impact is not strong enough to offset the declining share of Hong Kong in Chinese foreign trade.Bilateral trade statistics, Intermediation role, China and Hong Kong

Globalisation Effect on Inflation in the Great Moderation Era: New Evidence from G10 Countries

The effect of globalisation on inflation is modeled and simulated for ten countries from G10 during the Great Moderation period. The results are supportive of the globalisation hypothesis. In particular, the results show that dynamic channels and magnitudes of globalisation to domestic inflation are highly heterogeneous from country to country, that increases in trade openness could be either inflationary or deflationary, while increased imports from low-cost emerging-market economies have been mostly deflationary, and that there has been almost no direct globalisation impact as far as inflation persistence is concerned while the impact on inflation variability can be positive as well as negative. Overall, globalisation is shown to have contributed positively to the aspect of low inflation rather than that of stable inflation during the Great Moderation era

Is the Chinese Currency Substantially Misaligned to Warrant Further Appreciation?

This study provides quarterly time-series estimates of the misalignment in the REER of the Renminbi (RMB). The estimation is based on a commonly used economic approach, but with a wider and more up-to-date coverage of data and a more extensive use of econometric modelling techniques. Our estimates corroborate and explain most of the previous estimates. More importantly, our estimates demonstrate that there is no significant undervaluation in the REER of the RMB though downward misalignment exists in the trilateral rates between the RMB, US$ and euro. The finding refutes the claim that RMB appreciation is the primary and necessary solution to the current global trade imbalance.Real exchange rate misalignment

Globalisation effect on inflation in the great moderation era: new evidence from G10 countries

The effect of globalisation on inflation is modelled and simulated for ten countries from G10 during the Great Moderation period. The results are supportive of the globalisation hypothesis. In particular, the results show that dynamic channels and magnitudes of globalisation to domestic inflation are highly heterogeneous from country to country, that increases in trade openness could be either inflationary or deflationary, while increased imports from low-cost emerging-market economies have been mostly deflationary, and that there has been almost no direct globalisation impact as far as inflation persistence is concerned while the impact on inflation variability can be positive as well as negative. Overall, globalisation is shown to have contributed positively to the aspect of low inflation rather than that of stable inflation during the Great Moderation era.Inflation dynamics; globalisation

Exchange Rate Misalignments: Historical Experience of Japan, Germany, Singapore and Taiwan Compared to China Today

This is a comparative study on the historical experience of real effective exchange rate (REER) misalignment of Japanese yen, Deutsche mark, Singapore dollar and Taiwan dollar, with regard to the recent dispute over the Renminbi (RMB) valuation. Panel-based misalignment estimates of the four economies show that net foreign asset build-up does not necessarily result in currency misalignment, and the recent misalignment of RMB is not unprecedented in terms of magnitude, duration or currency coverage, whereas volatility in REER misalignment is likely to propagate to inflation of the home economy concerned. The assertion of 'RMB rate manipulation' thus lacks empirical support.REER misalignment, RMB, Yen, D-mark, Singapore dollar, Taiwan dollar

Exchange rate misalignments: A comparison of China today against recent historical experiences of Japan, Germany, Singapore and Taiwan

The familiar claim of Chinese currency manipulation is generally asserted without reference to empirical evidence. To investigate the legitimacy of the claim, we ask if the undervalued misalignment found in the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Chinese renminbi (RMB) over the past decade has any recent historical precedents. Four cases are examined: the Japanese yen, the Deutsche mark, the Singapore dollar and the Taiwan dollar. Panel-based misalignment estimates of the REER of the four currencies are obtained using quarterly data from the late 1970s to the early 2000s. Our estimates suggest that there are precedents to the recent misalignment of the RMB in terms of magnitude, duration or breadth of currency coverage, and that a net build-up in foreign asset does not necessarily result in currency misalignment. In addition to finding little empirical justification for the claim of Chinese currency manipulation, we note that REER misalignment runs a risk of propagating inflation in the home economy.REER misalignment; RMB; yen; D-mark; Singapore dollar; Taiwan dollar

Rolling bearing fault diagnosis by a novel fruit fly optimization algorithm optimized support vector machine

Based on the nonlinear and non-stationary characteristics of rotating machinery vibration, a FOA-SVM model is established by Fruit Fly Optimization Algorithm (FOA) and combining the Support Vector Machine (SVM) to realize the optimization of the SVM parameters. The mechanism of this model is imitating the foraging behavior of fruit flies. The smell concentration judgment value of the forage is used as the parameter to construct a proper fitness function in order to search the optimal SVM parameters. The FOA algorithm is proved to be convergence fast and accurately with global searching ability by optimizing the analog signal of rotating machinery fault. In order to improve the classification accuracy rate, built FOA-SVM model, and then to extract feature value for training and testing, so that it can recognize the fault rolling bearing and the degree of it. Analyze and diagnose actual signals, it prove the validity of the method, and the improved method had a good prospect for its application in rolling bearing diagnosis

LOW PHASE NOISE CMOS PLL FREQUENCY SYNTHESIZER DESIGN AND ANALYSIS

The phase-locked loop (PLL) frequency synthesizer is a critical device of wireless transceivers. It works as a local oscillator (LO) for frequency translation and channel selection in the transceivers but suffers phase noise including reference spurs. In this dissertation for lowing phase noise and power consumption, efforts are placed on the new design of PLL components: VCOs, charge pumps and sigma delta modulators. Based on the analysis of the VCO phase noise generation mechanism and improving on the literature results, a design-oriented phase noise model for a complementary cross-coupled LC VCO is provided. The model reveals the relationship between the phase noise performance and circuit design parameters. Using this phase noise model, an optimized 2GHz low phase noise CMOS LC VCO is designed, simulated and fabricated. The theoretical analysis results are confirmed by the simulation and experimental results. With this VCO phase noise model, we also design a low phase noise, low gain wideband VCO with the typical VCO gain around 100MHz/V. Improving upon literature results, a complete quantitative analysis of reference spur is given in this dissertation. This leads to a design of a charge pump by using a negative feedback circuit and replica bias to reduce the current mismatch which causes the reference spur. In addition, low-impedance charge/discharge paths are provided to overcome the charge pump current glitches which also cause PLL spurs. With a large bit-width high order sigma delta modulator, the fractional-N PLL has fine frequency resolution and fast locking time. Based on an analysis of sigma delta modulator models introduced in this dissertation, a 3rd-order MASH 1-1-1 digital sigma delta modulator is designed. Pipelining techniques and true single phase clock (TSPC) techniques are used for saving power and area. Included is the design of a fully integrated 2.4GHz §¢ fractional-N CMOS PLL frequency synthesizer. It takes advantage of a sigma delta modulator to get a very fine frequency resolution and a relatively large loop bandwidth. This frequency synthesizer is a 4th-order charge pump PLL with 26MHz reference frequency. The loop bandwidth is about 150KHz, while the whole PLL phase noise is about -120dBc/Hz at 1MHz frequency offset