INCORPORATING THE 1990 FARM BILL INTO FARM-LEVEL DECISION MODELS: AN APPLICATION TO COTTON FARMS: COMMENT

Crop Production/Industries,

AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF THE EMISSION REDUCTION MARKET SYSTEM IN CHICAGO

A mixed-integer programming model is used to investigate economic impacts of the permit trading market in Chicago and determine the equilibrium price. Unlike previous studies, the model determines unit pollution abatement cost endogenously depending on firms' technology adoption decisions. A sequential trading process is used to simulate firms' behavior under incomplete information. The results show that average shadow prices, a counterpart of conventional shadow prices in discrete problems, slightly underestimate the equilibrium prices. Moreover, the model predicts an over-supply of permits for the first two trading seasons.mixed-integer programming, ERMS, average shadow price, pollution permit, Environmental Economics and Policy,

EFFICIENCY LOSS AND TRADABLE PERMITS

This research presents a price endogenous mathematical programming model that incorporates the independent, optimizing behavior of individual participants to estimate the possible efficiency loss of a newly developed permit trading market for nitrogen oxides (NOx) control in southern Taiwan. The result shows that when control equipment decisions are indivisible, an efficiency loss may arise due to over-investment. The efficiency loss found here is not because of a bilateral trading process and/or insufficient information for finding trading partners, but it is due to not having full control ability of the installed equipment.Environmental Economics and Policy,

The Economic Potential of Second-Generation Biofuels: Implications for Social Welfare, Land Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Illinois

This paper develops a dynamic micro-economic land use model that maximizes social welfare and internalizes externality from greenhouse gas emissions to obtain the optimal land use allocation for traditional row crops and bioenergy crops (corn stover, miscanthus and switchgrass), the mix of cellulosic feedstocks and fuel and food prices. We use this carbon tax policy as a benchmark to compare the implications of existing biofuel policies on land use, social welfare and the environment for the 2007-2022 period. The model is operationalized using yields of perennial grasses obtained from a biophysical model, county level data on yields of traditional row crops and production costs for row crops and bioenergy crops in Illinois. We show that a carbon tax policy that is directly related to carbon intensity of fuels can generate the highest social welfare among alternative policy scenarios. The existing ethanol tax credits result in substantial deadweight losses and higher GHG emissions as compared to the baseline. Ethanol blending mandates with subsidies lead to further welfare losses and higher GHG emissions. To meet advanced biofuel blending mandates, corn stover and miscanthus are used but the mix of viable cellulosic feedstocks varies spatially and temporally. Corn stover is viable mainly in central and northern Illinois while miscanthus acres are primarily concentrated on southern Illinois. The blending mandates lead to a significant shift in acreage from soybeans and pasture to corn and a change in crop rotation and tillage practices.cellulosic ethanol, land use, social welfare, greenhouse gas emissions, Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy, Q42, Q24,

ENVIRONMENT, EQUITY AND WATERSHED MANAGEMENT

This paper presents a methodology for incorporating environmental and social equity objectives in an economic analysis of watershed management. Empirical results indicate that restricting agricultural pollution notably increases farm costs. The equity objective also adversely affects economic efficiency, but the cost increase due to social equity is less significant.Environmental Economics and Policy,

Economic Impacts of Soybean Rust on the US Soybean Sector

The spread of Asian Soybean Rust (ASR) represents a real threat to the U.S. soybean sector. We assess the potential impacts of ASR on domestic soybean production and commodity markets as well as the competitive position of the US in the soybean export market. We develop a mathematical stochastic dynamic sector model with endogenous prices to assess the economic impacts of ASR on US agriculture. The model takes into account the disease spread during the cropping season, the inherent uncertainty regarding the risk of infection, and the dichotomous decisions that farmers make (no treatment, preventive treatment, and curative treatment) facing the risk of infection. Our results suggest substantial impacts from potential ASR spread on agricultural output, prices and exports. Our simulation results suggest that substantial losses to the US soybean producers may be avoided by establishing effective soybean rust controls. ASR control policies can be particularly efficient if applied in the gateway regions on the path of the ASR spread. On the other hand, our results indicate a possible gradual shift in soybean production from lower-latitude states toward higher-latitude statesAsian Soybean Rust, Stochastic Models, Dynamic Models, Crop Production/Industries, C61, Q13,

Economic Impacts of Soybean Rust on the US Soybean Sector

The spread of Asian Soybean Rust (ASR) represents a real threat to the U.S. soybean sector. We assess the potential impacts of ASR on domestic soybean production and commodity markets as well as the competitive position of the US in the soybean export market. We develop a mathematical stochastic dynamic sector model with endogenous prices to assess the economic impacts of ASR on US agriculture. The model takes into account the disease spread during the cropping season, the inherent uncertainty regarding the risk of infection, and the dichotomous decisions that farmers make (no treatment, preventive treatment, and curative treatment) facing the risk of infection. Our results suggest substantial impacts from potential ASR spread on agricultural output, prices and exports. Our simulation results suggest that substantial losses to the US soybean producers may be avoided by establishing effective soybean rust controls. ASR control policies can be particularly efficient if applied in the gateway regions on the path of the ASR spread. On the other hand, our results indicate a possible gradual shift in soybean production from lower-latitude states toward higher-latitude states.Asian Soybean Rust, Stochastic Models, Dynamic Models, Agribusiness, Marketing, C61, Q13,

Meeting the Mandate for Biofuels: Implications for Land Use and Food and Fuel Prices

Biofuels have been promoted to achieve energy security and as a solution to mitigating climate change. This research presents a framework to examine the extent to which biofuel mandates and subsidies reduce gasoline consumption and their implications for the food and fuel prices. A dynamic, multi-market equilibrium model, Biofuel and Environmental Policy Analysis Model (BEPAM), is used to estimate the effects of these policies on cropland usage between food crops and fuel crops and food and fuel prices, and to analyze the incentives provided by alternative policies for the mix of biofuels from corn and various cellulosic feedstocks that are economically viable over the 2007-2022 period. The provision of biofuel subsidies that accompany the mandate under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) is found to significantly change this mix in favor of cellulosic biofuels produced from high yielding grasses and reduce the adverse impact of the RFS alone on food prices.Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Mathematical Programming Modeling of Agricultural Supply Response

Agricultural and Food Policy, Land Economics/Use,

OPTIMAL TARGETING OF CREP TO IMPROVE WATER QUALITY: DETERMINING LAND RENTAL OFFERS WITH ENDOGENOUS SEDIMENT DEPOSITION COEFFICIENTS

An integrated watershed management framework that combines detailed spatial biophysical attributes of land with a hydrologic model and an economic model is developed to study the cost-effective enrollment of land in the Conservation Reserve Enhancement Program (CREP). Compared with previous related studies that assumed exogenous sediment deposition coefficients related only to site specific characteristics, this research explicitly considers endogenous sediment deposition coefficients, that are determined by landuse decisions made by all land parcels in the run-off path, in determining land rental offers. The modeling framework is applied to one of the eligible watersheds, Court Creek, in Illinois. We find that the optimal targeting of land enrollment is much more cost-effective than a uniform land rental policy.Land Economics/Use, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,