The responsiveness of criminal networks to intentional attacks: Disrupting darknet drug trade.

Physical, technological, and social networks are often at risk of intentional attack. Despite the wide-spanning importance of network vulnerability, very little is known about how criminal networks respond to attacks or whether intentional attacks affect criminal activity in the long-run. To assess criminal network responsiveness, we designed an empirically-grounded agent-based simulation using population-level network data on 16,847 illicit drug exchanges between 7,295 users of an active darknet drug market and statistical methods for simulation analysis. We consider three attack strategies: targeted attacks that delete structurally integral vertices, weak link attacks that delete large numbers of weakly connected vertices, and signal attacks that saturate the network with noisy signals. Results reveal that, while targeted attacks are effective when conducted at a large-scale, weak link and signal attacks deter more potential drug transactions and buyers when only a small portion of the network is attacked. We also find that intentional attacks affect network behavior. When networks are attacked, actors grow more cautious about forging ties, connecting less frequently and only to trustworthy alters. Operating in tandem, these two processes undermine long-term network robustness and increase network vulnerability to future attacks

The responsiveness of criminal networks to intentional attacks: disrupting darknet drug trade.

Physical, technological, and social networks are often at risk of intentional attack. Despite the wide-spanning importance of network vulnerability, very little is known about how criminal networks respond to attacks or whether intentional attacks affect criminal activity in the long-run. To assess criminal network responsiveness, we designed an empirically-grounded agent-based simulation using population-level network data on 16,847 illicit drug exchanges between 7,295 users of an active darknet drug market and statistical methods for simulation analysis. We consider three attack strategies: targeted attacks that delete structurally integral vertices, weak link attacks that delete large numbers of weakly connected vertices, and signal attacks that saturate the network with noisy signals. Results reveal that, while targeted attacks are effective when conducted at a large-scale, weak link and signal attacks deter more potential drug transactions and buyers when only a small portion of the network is attacked. We also find that intentional attacks affect network behavior. When networks are attacked, actors grow more cautious about forging ties, connecting less frequently and only to trustworthy alters. Operating in tandem, these two processes undermine long-term network robustness and increase network vulnerability to future attacks

Pubertal Development and Physical Victimization in Adolescence

Although much research has established a link between pubertal development and adolescent involvement in offending, drug use, and other adverse outcomes, no research has examined whether puberty is associated with experiences of violent physical victimization. This is an unfortunate oversight because researchers are only beginning to understand the range of adverse outcomes associated with puberty—and information on this front bears relevance for public health discussions regarding the consequences of pubertal development. Here, the authors use data from Add Health to examine whether puberty is associated with victimization and whether the effect of puberty on victimization is moderated by peer context (i.e., the proportion of deviant, opposite-sex, and older friends in the peer social network). In addition, the authors examine whether these associations operate similarly or dissimilarly for male and female adolescents. Findings indicate that among both males and females, puberty is associated with victimization net of a series of controls, though the effect is stronger among males. Analyses also indicate that for boys, puberty has a weaker effect when their friendship network has a higher proportion of girls in it. The effect of puberty on victimization was not moderated by peer context variables among females. Future theoretical and empirical research directions are suggested

Dating and substance use in adolescent peer networks

AimsThe current report examined associations between romantic partner, peer and individual substance use behaviors in a sample of American adolescents.DesignThe report used two waves of data (8th and 9th grades) from the Partnerships to Enhance Resilience (PROSPER) intervention project and focused on dating couples and their friends in 54 sampled school-cohorts. Hierarchical logistic regression models examined the associations between friend, partner and friend-of-partner substance use and daters' future drinking and smoking.SettingSurveys administered in rural Pennsylvania and Iowa secondary schools.ParticipantsA total of 744 dating couples.MeasurementsStudent participants completed questionnaires that assessed substance use, background characteristics and dating and friend nominations. Friend, partner and friend-of-partner substance use were assessed at each wave directly from respective reports.FindingsConsistent with a bridging hypothesis, friends-of-partner drinking had a strong and independent association with subsequent drunkenness (b = 1.40, P < 0.01) and drinking (b = 0.82, P < 0.01) among daters, and these associations did not vary by gender. A similar association was not observed for smoking, where partner (b = 0.77, P < 0.01) and direct friends (b = 1.19, P < 0.05) smoking showed strong and significant associations with future smoking, but friends-of-partner smoking did not (b = -0.44, P > 0.10).ConclusionRomantic partner and peer behaviors have substantially different associations with adolescent drinking and smoking. Intervention efforts aimed at reducing teenage smoking should be aimed at proximal peer and romantic relationships, whereas interventions of teenage drinking should also include the wider circle of indirect friends

Race, the Economic Maturity Gap, and Criminal Offending in Young Adulthood

While research has documented that racial and ethnic groups are differentially involved in juvenile and adult crime, little research has examined whether economic and employment well-being can explain Black and White adolescents' persistence in criminal activity into young adulthood. One potential explanation emerges from Moffitt, who posits an economic maturity gap to explain Blacks' greater persistence in offending in young adulthood. To evaluate this hypothesis, we draw on three waves of data available in the National Longitudinal Survey of Adolescent Health to examine whether economic and employment well-being in young adulthood can account for the racial gap, and persistence in offending. Findings are consistent with Moffitt's hypothesis and indicate that economic and employment well-being in young adulthood explain Blacks' greater involvement in criminal and violent offending in young adulthood. In addition, results indicate that the greater tendency of Blacks, compared to Whites, to persist in violent offending is also driven by the reduced economic and employment well-being that Blacks face in young adulthood

Network integration within a prison-based therapeutic community

Prison-based therapeutic communities (TCs) are a widespread, effective way to help incarcerated individuals address substance abuse problems. The TC philosophy is grounded in an explicitly relational paradigm that entails building community and conditioning residents to increasingly take responsibility for leadership therein. Although TCs are based on cultivating a network that continuously integrates new residents, many common structural features can jeopardize TC goals and are hence discouraged (e.g., clustering, homophily). In light of this tension, analyzing the TC from a network perspective can offer new insights to its functioning, as well as to broader questions surrounding how networks integrate new members. In this study we examine a men's TC unit in a Pennsylvania prison over a 10-month span. Using data on residents' informal networks, we examine: (1) how well individuals integrate into the TC network across time, (2) what predicts how well residents integrate into the TC, and (3) how well the TC network structure adheres to theoretical ideals. Results suggest that individual integration is driven by a range of hypothesized factors and, with limited exceptions, the observed TC is able to foster a network structure and integrate residents consistent with TC principles. We discuss the implications of these results for evaluating TCs and for understanding the process of network integration

Where “Old Heads” Prevail: Inmate Hierarchy in a Men’s Prison Unit

Research of inmate social order is a once-vibrant area that receded just as American incarceration rates climbed and the country's carceral contexts dramatically changed. This study reengages inmate society with an abductive mixed methods investigation of informal status within a contemporary men's prison unit. The authors collect narrative and social network data from 133 male inmates housed in a unit of a Pennsylvania medium-security prison. Analyses of inmate narratives suggest that unit "old heads" provide collective goods in the form of mentoring and role modeling that foster a positive and stable peer environment. This hypothesis is then tested with Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGMs) of peer nomination data. The ERGM results complement the qualitative analysis and suggest that older inmates and those who have been on the unit longer are perceived by their peers as powerful and influential. Both analytical strategies point to the maturity of aging and the acquisition of local knowledge as important for attaining informal status in the unit. In sum, this mixed methods case study extends theoretical insights of classic prison ethnographies, adds quantifiable results capable of future replication, and points to a growing population of older inmates as important for contemporary prison social organization

Evaluating peer-influence processes in a prison-based therapeutic community: a dynamic network approach

BackgroundThe Therapeutic Community (TC) is a common treatment modality for incarcerated individuals with substance use disorders. TCs rely on peer group processes to promote lasting behavioral and identity change, yet prior research has not adequately tested the peer influence mechanisms underlying the theoretical model. This study applied dynamic network analysis to estimate peer influence processes central to TC philosophy.MethodsA stochastic actor-oriented model (SAOM) was applied to ten months of social network data collected from prisoner surveys within a TC unit (N = 62) in a medium-security Pennsylvania prison. Respondents (N = 177, 84% of unit) completed at least one prison survey and provided network and community role model nominations.ResultsAlthough residents' levels of treatment engagement were significantly correlated with their nominated peers, estimates of peer influence for treatment engagement were non-significant in longitudinal network models. Nor were estimates of peer influence significantly greater for peers perceived as community role models. Rather, inmates connected with peers who were of similar treatment engagement as themselves (i.e., a peer selection process), and the latter primarily resulted from racial homophily in the TC social network.ConclusionsInconsistent with the desired treatment model, treatment engagement diffusion was not evident in the sampled TC. Results suggested that highly-engaged residents clustered together at the center of the TC's social structure but had little impact on less-engaged and peripheral inmates. The relatively short (i.e., four-month) program length and moderate-to-low treatment fidelity likely contributed to the lack of peer influence processes