Agent-Based Simulation of Mass Shootings: Determining How to Limit the Scale of a Tragedy

An agent-based simulation was created to examine key parameters in mass shootings. The goal of the simulation was to examine the potential effectiveness of Senator Dianne Feinstein\u27s (D-Calif.) assault weapons and high-capacity magazines bill. Based on the analysis, the proposed law would have a negligible effect on the number of people shot during mass shootings. The assault weapons portion of the proposed bill will have no effect on the number of people killed or wounded in a mass shooting. The assault weapons ban does not seek to decrease the rate of fire of any firearm. Of the parameters tested a weapon\u27s rate of fire has the greatest effect on the number of people wounded or killed by that weapon. However, a ban on high-capacity magazines will result in a small number of lives saved during a mass shooting. This paper demonstrates simulation\u27s ability to examine proposed policies and provide a framework for more meaningful discussions

The compound risk of heat and COVID-19 in New York City: riskscapes, physical and social factors, and interventions

Climate change is disrupting the fundamental conditions of human life and exacerbating existing inequity by placing further burdens on communities that are already vulnerable. Risk exposure varies by where people live and work. In this article, we examine the spatial overlap of the compound risks of COVID-19 and extreme heat in New York City. We assess the relationship between socio-demographic and natural, built and social environmental characteristics, and the spatial correspondence of COVID-19 daily case rates across three pandemic waves. We use these data to create a compound risk index combining heat, COVID-19, density and social vulnerability. Our findings demonstrate that the compound risk of COVID-19 and heat are public health and equity challenges. Heat and COVID-19 exposure are influenced by natural, built, and social environmental factors, including access to mitigation infrastructure. Socio-demographic characteristics are significant indicators of COVID-19 and heat exposure and of where compound vulnerability exists. Using GIS mapping, we illustrate how COVID-19 risk geographies change across the three waves of the pandemic and the particular impact of vaccinations before the onset of the third wave. We, then, use our compound risk index to assess heat interventions undertaken by the City, identify neighborhoods of both adequate and inadequate coverage and provide recommendations for future interventions

Modelling distributions of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus using climate, host density and interspecies competition.

Florida faces the challenge of repeated introduction and autochthonous transmission of arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Empirically-based predictive models of the spatial distribution of these species would aid surveillance and vector control efforts. To predict the occurrence and abundance of these species, we fit a mixed-effects zero-inflated negative binomial regression to a mosquito surveillance dataset with records from more than 200,000 trap days, representative of 53% of the land area and ranging from 2004 to 2018 in Florida. We found an asymmetrical competitive interaction between adult populations of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus for the sampled sites. Wind speed was negatively associated with the occurrence and abundance of both vectors. Our model predictions show high accuracy (72.9% to 94.5%) in validation tests leaving out a random 10% subset of sites and data since 2017, suggesting a potential for predicting the distribution of the two Aedes vectors

Polyunsaturated alkyl amides from Echinacea: Synthesis of diynes, enynes, and dienes

The synthesis of 20 alkyl amides, including 15 naturally occurring polyunsaturated alkyl amides previously identified from Echinacea spp. (1-13 and 62) or from Achilla sp. (55) and five previously unknown geometric isomers (23, 28, 67, 73, and 80), is described. Importantly, these amides include all of the major alkyl amides present in commercially used Echinacea extracts. The syntheses demonstrate methodology used for constructing alkyl amides containing conjugated diyne and isomerically pure enyne and diene moieties and may be adapted easily for the preparation of other alkyl amides present in Echinacea spp. Terminal-conjugated diynes were prepared by a Cadiot-Chodkiewitz coupling/deprotection sequence utilizing a protected bromoacetylene, and methyl-substituted diynes were made via a base-catalyzed rearrangement of terminal-skipped diynes. Conjugated dienes were prepared conveniently and with high stereoselectivity by the reduction of enynes or diynes with Rieke zinc. With the exception of 1-2 and 11-12, the alkyl amides are synthesized here for the first time, and their NMR data are consistent with that of the reported isolated natural compounds