6 research outputs found
A Re-Examination of Kaldor’s Engine-of-Economic Growth Hypothesis for the Turkish Economy
The purpose of this study is to re-examine the validity of Kaldor’s engine-of-economic growth hypothesis (1966) for the Turkish economy in the context of time series analyses. The data used in this study are quarterly and cover the period of 1998:Q1-2015:Q4. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to co-integration was used to investigate the long-run dynamic relationship between industrial and non-industrial aggregate outputs. The results identify the long-run relationship between industrial and non-industrial economic performance. The Toda-Yamamoto approach to Granger causality test was employed to detect the causal links between industrial output and non-industrial aggregate output. Causality test results also support the causal implication of the engine-of-growth hypothesis for the case of Turkey
Türkiye'de Enflasyon ve Enflasyon Belirsizliği: Kalman Filtre Yaklaşımı
Ekonomi literatüründe, Okun (1971) ile başlayan ve Friedman-Ball hipotezi olarak devam eden “enflasyon enflasyon belirsizliğini arttırmaktadır.” şeklindeki tartışma, iki değişken arasındaki ilişkinin yönü ve derecesi hakkında yeni tartışmaları beraberinde getirmiştir. Bu çalışmada enflasyon belirsizliği alternatif bir yöntemle elde edilerek, enflasyon belirsizliği ve enflasyon arasındaki olası ilişki literatürdeki teorik tartışmalar kapsamında araştırılmıştır. Çalışma Türkiye için aylık 1980-2012 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Çalışmada, enflasyon belirsizliğinin elde edilebilmesi için, Kalman Filtre analizi yöntemi kullanılarak, belirlenen en uygun ARIMA modeli tahmin edilmiştir. Enflasyon ile enflasyon belirsizliği arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi ise, modern zaman serisi analizleriyle sınanmıştı
The Relationship Between Inflation And Inflation Uncertainty In Turkey
In economic literature, the idea that inflation increases inflation uncertainty, starting by Okun (1971) and
later resuming as Friedman — Ball Hypothesis, has created new discussions about the degree and the direction
of the relationship between both variables. The aim of this study is to investigate the causal relationship
between inflation and inflation uncertainty and compare the causal relationship for high and low inflation
periods in Turkish Economy. The data used in the study are monthly and cover the period of 1988-2010. The
whole period has been divided into two sub-periods as 1988-2004 and 2004-2010 to compare high and low
inflation periods. In this study, in order to get data on the inflation uncertainty, the optimal ARIMA model
was estimated by using Kalman Filter analysis technique. The relationship between inflation and inflation
uncertainty was finally tested by using Granger Causality analysis for two periods
Comparing Equation of Exchange and Wage-Cost Mark-up Identity for Turkish Economy
In economic literature, Monetarists have argued that money growth over transactions growth would exactly cause the same growth in the price level. In contrast, Weintraub, one of the leading economists of the Post Keynesian School has believed that the effect of the money supply on the price level is not direct. The aim of this study is to empirically investigate and to compare the arguments of Monetarists and Post Keynesians on the inflation for the case of Turkey. The data used in the study are annual and cover the period of 1990-2013. In this study, the equations implied by both Schools were compared to each other in terms of their predictive powers, their statistical robustness and the validity of the hypotheses provided by them. In a result, strong support was found for WCMI especially in terms of its predictive power
A Re-Examination of Kaldor’s Engine-of-Economic Growth Hypothesis for the Turkish Economy
The purpose of this study is to re-examine the validity of Kaldor’s engine-of-economic
growth hypothesis (1966) for the Turkish economy in the context of time series analyses. The data used
in this study are quarterly and cover the period of 1998:Q1-2015:Q4. The Autoregressive Distributed
Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to co-integration was used to investigate the long-run dynamic
relationship between industrial and non-industrial aggregate outputs. The results identify the long-run
relationship between industrial and non-industrial economic performance. The Toda-Yamamoto
approach to Granger causality test was employed to detect the causal links between industrial output
and non-industrial aggregate output. Causality test results also support the causal implication of the
engine-of-growth hypothesis for the case of Turkey