The development and application of a freight transport flow model for South Africa

Thesis (DPhil (Logistics))--University of Stellenbosch, 2007.South Africa currently experiences the double jeopardy problem of catching up to global economic competitiveness whilst at the same time feeling the pressures of sustainability management spearheaded by a global agenda. Global sustainability is defined as growth that is shared without depleting natural resources or damaging the environment. Academic disciplines are challenged to make a contribution and economics as such should contribute by providing the lead and lag indicators for the planning and measurement of scarce resources usuage. This integrative view includes economic sub-disciplines, such as logistics. This integrative view is an acknowledged part of the economics discipline, except that the macro-economic context of some sub-disciplines, such as logistics, often receives less attention during the course of academic activities. The distribution of resources and outputs in the economy is a logistics controlled cross-cutting factor, but suffers from a lack of macro-economic perspective, and lead and lag orientated measurement. This state of the affairs is a historic backlog of logistics and its specific position within economics. During the primary economic era the world began to configure networks and markets, which became more pronounced and settled with the dawn and settling of the industrial era. Logistics then was a “given” and did not receive much thought even as industrial, market economies developed. Transport was regarded as an administered cost, i.e. inefficiencies in logistics systems were evenly distributed between competitors, not giving any specific entity an advantage. With the advent of global competition and the diminishing returns on other cost saving measures, companies began to collaborate and integrate logistics functions within value chains, but the administered part of transport costs failed to receive the attention it required. In this way, global competitors did begin to experience disadvantages on a national level as whole economies suffered from inefficiencies in logistics and specifically transport systems

Logistics and the future: The rise of macrologistics

Background: The components of national freight logistics costs are still optimised in isolation, instead of systemic optimisation between logistics and other supply chain elements. The risk is the tragedy of the commons effect, where a positive return for economic activities in isolation could lead to a negative collective result in the long-term. Therefore, there is a need to elevate the systemic view of logistics to the macroeconomic realm. Objectives: The primary objective of this study was to further the macrologistics discipline through its formal definition and to develop an instrumentation construct to support macroeconomic trade-off analysis. The secondary objective was to apply instrumentation outputs to national-level logistics challenges. Method: A review of macrologistics was conducted, followed by a discussion on macrologistics instrumentation, which is twofold: a freight-flow model and a related logistics costs model. A disaggregated national input–output table was developed, followed by gravity modelling, to determine freight flows. Logistics cost calculations relate these flows to the costs of fulfilling associated logistics functions. Results: This review contributes to the developing theory of macrologistics, while the instrumentation outputs improve the systemic understanding of the national freight-flow landscape, enabling informed debate and prioritisation analysis. This systemic view enabled macrologistics proposals to address South Africa’s logistics challenges, including proposals regarding a domestic intermodal strategy externality cost internalisation; international trade facilitation; infrastructure investments; and rail branch line revitalisation. Conclusion: The elevation of logistics to the macroeconomic realm will enable the management of logistics as a national production factor, thereby contributing to reducing national freight logistics costs and improving national competitiveness

Motivating Users to Build Heritage Collections Using Games on Social Networks

Efforts to motivate user participation and contribution towards digital libraries, such as heritage collections, are often unsuccessful, resulting in empty or underutilized collections. These collections have the potential to improve heritage preservation and education. However,without growth, they are of little use to society. Using a Facebook application, different techniques were compared for motivating user participation and contribution of content towards a heritage collection. It was found that direct competition outperformed a badge system and successfully motivated users to contribute. These results are particularly interesting since, in a developing country, such as where this research was carried out, community and collaboration are usually valued and favoured over competition

Forecasting South African containers for international trade : a commodity-based approach

The original publication is available at http://www.jtscm.co.za/index.php/jtscm/article/view/72The most common approach used internationally for forecasting international trade containers is models based on the correlation between container trade and economic growth. While the strong historical correlation is indisputable, this paper argues that there will be saturation in the propensity to containerise as all the suitable volumes of the underlying commodities shift to containers over time. In addition, the link between freight transport and GDP will decouple as more sustainable approaches to economic development, and therefore freight transport, are necessitated by economic and environmental realities. A commodity-based model, taking into account the underlying drivers of containerisation, is proposed here as a more realistic forecast of container demand. This could have a material impact on how large-scale investment decisions are directed.Publishers' Versio

South Africa's domestic intermodal imperative

The original publication is available at http://www.journals.elsevier.com/research-in-transportation-business-and-management/An integrated alternative to road only or rail only transport does not exist in South Africa for domestic freight. This is in spite of the fact that national freight logistics costs are high, road infrastructure is challenged and concern for the environmental impact of road transport is increasing. These factors have renewed interest in intermodal transport solutions, which are the focus of this article. The question is whether a viable domestic intermodal solution can be found through segmenting freight flows and developing a business case based on these segments. The research confirms that this is possible and the segmentation and subsequent business case is presented. The results demonstrate that building three intermodal terminals to connect the three major industrial hubs – Gauteng, Durban and Cape Town – through an intermodal solution could reduce transport costs (including externalities) for the identified 22.9 million tons of intermodal freight flows on the Cape and the Natal corridors by 64% (including externalities).Post-prin

The effect of an interprofessional clinical simulation on medical students

BACKGROUND. Teamwork as an outcome for graduates implies the understanding and appreciation of the roles, responsibilities and skills of other professions. An interprofessional education (IPE) event was initiated as a simulated management of a multiply traumatised patient in the acute phases of his injury, relevant to both medical and nursing students. The objective was to explore medical students’ reflections on the value of this clinical simulation. METHOD. A mixed-methods study was done, using a convenience sample of 5th-year medical students (N=96). Participants wrote a multiple-choice question (MCQ) test and either actively participated in the simulation or observed the actions through a one-way mirror. The simulations were facilitated by experienced skills trainers. On completion, the participants repeated the MCQ test and took part in a facilitator-led debriefing. The latter was audiotaped and students could submit written reflections. Written comments and transcripts of the audiotapes were analysed thematically. RESULTS. Participants’ average test scores improved significantly (p<0.001) from 63.5% before the simulation to 68.6% thereafter. Five themes emerged from the reflections: (i) difficulties with implementing knowledge and skills; (ii) importance of teamwork; (iii) skills necessary for teamwork; (iv) effect of being observed by peers; and (v) IPE in the curriculum. CONCLUSIONS. Medical students gained clinical knowledge during the simulation and became aware of their lack of skills, knowledge, and opportunities to acquire and practise skills required for effective teamwork.http://www.ajhpe.org.zahb201

Increased primary health care use in the first year after colorectal cancer diagnosis

OBJECTIVE: The view that the general practitioner (GP) should be more involved during the curative treatment of cancer is gaining support. This study aimed to assess the current role of the GP during treatment of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). DESIGN: Historical prospective study, using primary care data from two cohorts. SETTING: Registration Network Groningen (RNG) consisting of 18 GPs in three group practices with a dynamic population of about 30,000 patients. SUBJECTS: Patients who underwent curative treatment for CRC (n = 124) and matched primary care patients without CRC (reference population; n = 358). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Primary healthcare use in the period 1998-2009. FINDINGS: Patients with CRC had higher primary healthcare use in the year after diagnosis compared with the reference population. After correction for age, gender, and consultation behaviour, CRC patients had 54% (range 23-92%) more face-to-face contacts, 68% (range 36-108%) more drug prescriptions, and 35% (range -4-90%) more referrals compared with reference patients. Patients consulted their GP more often for reasons related to anaemia, abdominal pain, constipation, skin problems, and urinary infections. GPs also prescribed more acid reflux drugs, laxatives, anti-anaemic preparations, analgesics, and psycholeptics for CRC patients. CONCLUSIONS: The GP plays a significant role in the year after CRC diagnosis. This role may be associated with treatment-related side effects and psychological problems. Formal guidelines on the involvement of the GP during CRC treatment might ensure more effective allocation and communication of care between primary and secondary healthcare services

A heavy goods vehicle fleet forecast for South Africa

CITATION: Havenga, J. H., Le Roux, P. P. T. & Simpson, Z. P. 2018. A heavy goods vehicle fleet forecast for South Africa. Journal of Transport and Supply Chain Management, 12:a342, doi:10.4102/jtscm.v12i0.342.The original publication is available at http://www.jtscm.co.zaPurpose: To develop and apply a methodology to calculate the heavy goods vehicle fleet required to meet South Africa’s projected road freight transport demand within the context of total surface freight transport demand. Methodology: Total freight flows are projected through the gravity modelling of a geographically disaggregated input–output model. Three modal shift scenarios, defined over a 15-year forecast period, combined with road efficiency improvements, inform the heavy goods vehicle fleet for different vehicle types to serve the estimated future road freight transport demand. Findings: The largest portion of South Africa’s high and growing transport demand will remain on long-distance road corridors. The impact can be moderated through the concurrent introduction of domestic intermodal solutions, performance-based standards in road freight transport and improved vehicle utilisation. This presupposes the prioritisation of collaborative initiatives between government, freight owners and logistics service providers. Research limitations: (1) The impact of short-distance urban movements on fleet numbers is not included yet. (2) Seasonality, which negatively influences bi-directional flows, is not taken into account owing to the annual nature of the macroeconomic data. (3) The methodology can be applied to other countries; the input data are however country-specific and findings can therefore not be generalised. (4) The future possibility of a reduction in absolute transport demand through, for example, reshoring have not been modelled yet. Practical implications: Provides impetus for the implementation of domestic intermodal solutions and road freight performance-based standards to mitigate the impact of growing freight transport demand. Societal implications: More efficient freight transport solutions will reduce national logistics costs and freight-related externalities. Originality: Develops a methodology for forecasting the heavy goods vehicle fleet within the context of total freight transport to inform government policy and industry actions.https://jtscm.co.za/index.php/jtscm/article/view/342Publisher's versio

Re-Irradiation in Patients with Recurrent Rectal Cancer is Safe and Feasible

BACKGROUND: There is no consensus yet for the best treatment regimen in patients with recurrent rectal cancer (RRC). This study aims to evaluate toxicity and oncological outcomes after re-irradiation in patients with RRC in our center. Clinical (cCR) and pathological complete response (pCR) rates and radicality were also studied. METHODS: Between January 2010 and December 2018, 61 locally advanced RRC patients were treated and analyzed retrospectively. Patients received radiotherapy at a dose of 30.0-30.6 Gy (reCRT) or 50.0-50.4 Gy chemoradiotherapy (CRT) in cases of no prior irradiation because of low-risk primary rectal cancer. In both groups, patients received capecitabine concomitantly. RESULTS: In total, 60 patients received the prescribed neoadjuvant (chemo)radiotherapy followed by surgery, 35 patients (58.3%) in the reRCT group and 25 patients (41.7%) in the long-course CRT group. There were no significant differences in overall survival (p = 0.82), disease-free survival (p = 0.63), and local recurrence-free survival (p = 0.17) between the groups. Patients in the long-course CRT group reported more skin toxicity after radiotherapy (p = 0.040). No differences were observed in late toxicity. In the long-course CRT group, a significantly higher cCR rate was observed (p = 0.029); however, there was no difference in the pCR rate (p = 0.66). CONCLUSIONS: The treatment of RRC patients with re-irradiation is comparable to treatment with long-course CRT regarding toxicity and oncological outcomes. In the reCRT group, less cCR was observed, although there was no difference in pCR. The findings in this study suggest that it is safe and feasible to re-irradiate RRC patients

A logistics barometer for South Africa : towards sustainable freight mobility

CITATION: Havenga, J. H., et al. 2016. A logistics barometer for South Africa: towards sustainable freight mobility. Transport and Supply Chain Management, 10(1), a228, doi:10.4102/jtscm.v10i1.228.The original publication is available at http://www.jtscm.co.zaENGLISH SUMMARY : Background: South Africa has a disproportionately high freight transport demand owing to industrial development far from ports, low domestic beneficiation and improper modal use. Historical freight transport policy supported primary economic development, failing to preempt the changing economic structure and the resulting freight transport needs, resulting in excessive transport costs and externalities. Objectives: To share the macroeconomic freight transport challenges revealed by South Africa’s Logistics Barometer, and to identify key interventions to address these. Method: Freight flows are modelled by disaggregating the national input–output model into 83 commodity groupings and 372 geographical areas, culminating in a 30-year forecast at 5-year intervals for three scenarios, followed by distance-decay gravity modelling to determine freight flows. Logistics costs are calculated by relating these flows to the costs of fulfilling associated logistic functions. Results: Long-distance transport remains the largest general freight typology and is, due to inefficient macro logistics design, extremely costly, both in terms of intrinsic and extrinsic costs. Conclusion: South Africa’s freight task will grow 2.5-fold by 2043. Logistics and externality costs are already untenable at current levels. The development of domestic intermodal solutions will support the drive towards sustainable freight mobility.http://www.jtscm.co.za/index.php/jtscm/article/view/228Publisher's versio