Foresight as a governance tool to help shape the next production revolution

The next production revolution (NPR; also called Industry 4.0 elsewhere) is likely to trigger complex changes via the interactions of new technologies, materials, processes, and business models. These changes would affect R&D and innovation activities; the labour market; income distribution and well-being; skill requirements; as well as several fields of regulation. Furthermore, digitalisation can be a major enabler of the circular economy. The policy implications of the NPR are so wide-ranging that it is difficult to mention a major policy domain, which would remain untouched by these sweeping changes. The need for policy orchestration is, therefore, rather strong. Foresight, a specific type of forward-looking activities (FLA), can assist policy-makers in dealing with these complex changes. First, it facilitates a systemic approach, considers multiple futures and draws on the diverse set of knowledge of participants. Second, a shared vision, developed – and thus ‘owned’ – by the participants, can reduce the uncertainties generated by NPR, and it helps building commitment among participants as an additional factor to keep up the momentum of orchestrated policy design and implementation. Third, a transformative foresight process, considering and assisting systemic changes triggered by NPR, can contribute to reshaping the prevailing power structures and invigorating policy rationales, decision-making processes, and thus improving the efficacy of policies. FLA projects dealing with NPR issues vary in their thematic coverage and their breadth of participation. Combining these distinctions, four different archetypes of FLA are identified – and illustrated by actual cases – in the paper. The expected impacts on policy-making vary by the type of prospective analyses. Participatory processes mobilise a wider set of knowledge, aspirations, and worldviews compared to an expert-based project. Hence, more novel ideas can be expected, contested from various angles, hence tested more thoroughly, given the diversity of participants. FLA projects focusing on innovation and manufacturing systems consider a broader set of issues than S&T-centred projects. Given the complex issues brought about by the NPR, such a systemic approach seems to be more appropriate as a foundation for devising effective policies. In certain contexts, S&T-centred FLA can also be useful, but different and only more limited benefits and impacts can arise from this approach. Foresight benefits are far from being automatic: the paper considers eight critical factors to achieve those. An astute embedding of foresight into policy-making enhances the likelihood of impact, but foresight recommendations are no substitute for policy decisions and actions

The role of foresight in shaping the next production revolution

Foresight can be a highly useful tool to address the opportunities and challenges triggered by the next production revolution. As shown by the various country cases considered in this chapter, it facilitates debating and systemic thinking about multiple futures and helps shaping the future through the process of participation and engagement. Given its participatory nature, key actors are mobilised to form shared views about the future, negotiate their future stakes and interests, and agree on actions aligned to their shared vision. The next production revolution requires quick and proactive policy-making, as well as better orchestration across different policy domains. Foresight can assist policy-makers by providing foundations for robust policies, fostering new framing of policy issues, as well as translating long-term concerns into aligned policy priorities. Furthermore, policy implementation is likely to be faster and more effective when key stakeholders are involved early on in shaping these policies. Foresight benefits, however, are far from being automatic: the chapter considers eight factors critical to achieving those. An astute embedding of a foresight process into policy-making enhances the likelihood of impact, but foresight recommendations are no substitute for policy decisions and actions

The ‘fit’ between forward-looking activities and the innovation policy governance sub-system: A framework to explore potential impacts

Forward-looking activities (FLAs) can influence innovation systems in various ways to a significant extent. This paper focuses on changes induced by FLAs in the innovation policy governance sub-systems (IPGSs) of the national innovation system (NIS). Our knowledge is surprisingly limited even on this subset of FLA impacts, despite several decades of practice and non-negligible analytical efforts. We propose new taxonomies of FLAs and IPGSs and explore hypotheses on the likely 'fit' between different types of FLAs and various IPGSs. Countries selected to illustrate the relevance of our analytical framework include Germany, Greece, and Hungary. Our intention is contribute to a more refined theory building concerning the role and likely impacts of FLAs. Further, as a better understanding of impacts supports the design of more appropriate and effective FLAs, as well as more insightful evaluation of FLAs, this approach is of practical relevance, too

Covariant Equilibrium Statistical Mechanics

A manifest covariant equilibrium statistical mechanics is constructed starting with a 8N dimensional extended phase space which is reduced to the 6N physical degrees of freedom using the Poincare-invariant constrained Hamiltonian dynamics describing the micro-dynamics of the system. The reduction of the extended phase space is initiated forcing the particles on energy shell and fixing their individual time coordinates with help of invariant time constraints. The Liouville equation and the equilibrium condition are formulated in respect to the scalar global evolution parameter which is introduced by the time fixation conditions. The applicability of the developed approach is shown for both, the perfect gas as well as the real gas. As a simple application the canonical partition integral of the monatomic perfect gas is calculated and compared with other approaches. Furthermore, thermodynamical quantities are derived. All considerations are shrinked on the classical Boltzmann gas composed of massive particles and hence quantum effects are discarded.Comment: 22 pages, 1 figur

Gauge Invariant Hamiltonian Formalism for Spherically Symmetric Gravitating Shells

The dynamics of a spherically symmetric thin shell with arbitrary rest mass and surface tension interacting with a central black hole is studied. A careful investigation of all classical solutions reveals that the value of the radius of the shell and of the radial velocity as an initial datum does not determine the motion of the shell; another configuration space must, therefore, be found. A different problem is that the shell Hamiltonians used in literature are complicated functions of momenta (non-local) and they are gauge dependent. To solve these problems, the existence is proved of a gauge invariant super-Hamiltonian that is quadratic in momenta and that generates the shell equations of motion. The true Hamiltonians are shown to follow from the super-Hamiltonian by a reduction procedure including a choice of gauge and solution of constraint; one important step in the proof is a lemma stating that the true Hamiltonians are uniquely determined (up to a canonical transformation) by the equations of motion of the shell, the value of the total energy of the system, and the choice of time coordinate along the shell. As an example, the Kraus-Wilczek Hamiltonian is rederived from the super-Hamiltonian. The super-Hamiltonian coincides with that of a fictitious particle moving in a fixed two-dimensional Kruskal spacetime under the influence of two effective potentials. The pair consisting of a point of this spacetime and a unit timelike vector at the point, considered as an initial datum, determines a unique motion of the shell.Comment: Some remarks on the singularity of the vector potantial are added and some minor corrections done. Definitive version accepted in Phys. Re

The tetralogy of Birkhoff theorems

We classify the existent Birkhoff-type theorems into four classes: First, in field theory, the theorem states the absence of helicity 0- and spin 0-parts of the gravitational field. Second, in relativistic astrophysics, it is the statement that the gravitational far-field of a spherically symmetric star carries, apart from its mass, no information about the star; therefore, a radially oscillating star has a static gravitational far-field. Third, in mathematical physics, Birkhoff's theorem reads: up to singular exceptions of measure zero, the spherically symmetric solutions of Einstein's vacuum field equation with Lambda = 0 can be expressed by the Schwarzschild metric; for Lambda unequal 0, it is the Schwarzschild-de Sitter metric instead. Fourth, in differential geometry, any statement of the type: every member of a family of pseudo-Riemannian space-times has more isometries than expected from the original metric ansatz, carries the name Birkhoff-type theorem. Within the fourth of these classes we present some new results with further values of dimension and signature of the related spaces; including them are some counterexamples: families of space-times where no Birkhoff-type theorem is valid. These counterexamples further confirm the conjecture, that the Birkhoff-type theorems have their origin in the property, that the two eigenvalues of the Ricci tensor of two-dimensional pseudo-Riemannian spaces always coincide, a property not having an analogy in higher dimensions. Hence, Birkhoff-type theorems exist only for those physical situations which are reducible to two dimensions.Comment: 26 pages, updated references, minor text changes, accepted by Gen. Relat. Gra