Naturaleza, desarrollo y distribución en América Latina. Elementos de juicio sobre el papel de la geografía, el clima y los recursos naturales

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) La enorme riqueza de recursos naturales de América Latina tiene efectos en muchos países de la región. La apertura económica en varios países fue seguida por un crecimiento rápido de la inversión extranjera y exportaciones de productos en cuya elaboración se emplean recursos naturales intensivamente. El crecimiento de sectores manufactureros que hacen uso intensivo de la mano de obra fue mucho menor. ¿Qué significa el aumento de la dependencia en sectores basados en recursos naturales para las perspectivas de desarrollo y la distribución del ingreso?

Prevención de crisis y el contagio: aspectos fiscales y financieros

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) Desarrollos económicos recientes han puesto de manifiesto la vulnerabilidad de América Latina a los desajustes económicos y financieros producidos por sucesos que tienen lugar en puntos distantes del planeta. La crisis financiera de Asia que se inició en 1997 y la crisis de Rusia, más reciente, han dejado a la región profundamente sacudida y con el temor de un colapso a gran escala. Este contagio se ha producido a través de varios canales. El colapso de la demanda de Asia ha contribuido a la reciente baja de los precios mundiales de los productos básicos (commodities), lo que ha reducido los ingresos por concepto de exportación de las regiones que dependen de esos productos y ha afectado las finanzas públicas en numerosos países. La devaluación en Rusia ha hecho surgir el fantasma del incumplimiento soberano, lo que ha hecho que inversionistas en todo el mundo se sientan más temerosos de aumentar su exposición más allá de sus fronteras. Las crisis financieras de Asia y Rusia también han socavado gravemente los balances generales de los inversionistas de mercados emergentes, reduciendo su capacidad de invertir en la región y obligándolos a rematar inversiones en América Latina. En este trabajo se describen las políticas fiscales y financieras que pueden ayudar a proteger a las economías contra la clase de turbulencia financiera general que está experimentando el mundo actualmente. Las políticas cambiarias se tratan en un trabajo aparte.

Saving Behavior in Latin America: Overview and Policy Issues

This paper reviews and contributes to the policy debate on the issue of saving in Latin America, presenting an alternative perspective on the relationship between saving and growth, saving and inflation stabilization and structural reform, and saving and capital flows.

Asegurar la estabilidad y el crecimiento en una región propensa a las sacudidas: los retos de políticas para América Latina

(Disponible en idioma inglés únicamente) ¿Cuáles son los motivos y los costos de la inestabilidad en América Latina? Debido a que no existe el consenso sobre estas cuestiones fundamentales, no hay consenso sobre la respuesta más apropiada a la inestabilidad macroeconómica en América Latina y en países propensos a las sacudidas de otras regiones. Se presentan nuevos elementos de juicio sobre estos aspectos contenciosos y se tratan las implicaciones de políticas para la región.

The Roots of Banking Crises: The Macroeconomic Context

This paper discusses the ways in which macroeconomic developments can put stress on banks, and in extreme cases lead to banking crises. These macroeconomic causes of bank vulnerability and crisis have important implications for regulatory regimes, and for macroeconomic policy itself. Much of the discussion emphasizes the need for monetary policy to be set with an eye on the state of the domestic banking system as an occasionally important consideration. One purpose of this paper is to promote a discussion of how to do a better job of incorporating weak banking systems into macroeconomic policy management.

A Survey on IT-Techniques for a Dynamic Emergency Management in Large Infrastructures

This deliverable is a survey on the IT techniques that are relevant to the three use cases of the project EMILI. It describes the state-of-the-art in four complementary IT areas: Data cleansing, supervisory control and data acquisition, wireless sensor networks and complex event processing. Even though the deliverable’s authors have tried to avoid a too technical language and have tried to explain every concept referred to, the deliverable might seem rather technical to readers so far little familiar with the techniques it describes

On the conjecture of Kevin Walker

In 1985 Kevin Walker in his study of topology of polygon spaces raised an interesting conjecture in the spirit of the well-known question "Can you hear the shape of a drum?" of Marc Kac. Roughly, Walker's conjecture asks if one can recover relative lengths of the bars of a linkage from intrinsic algebraic properties of the cohomology algebra of its configuration space. In this paper we prove that the conjecture is true for polygon spaces in R^3. We also prove that for planar polygon spaces the conjecture holds is several modified forms: (a) if one takes into account the action of a natural involution on cohomology, (b) if the cohomology algebra of the involution's orbit space is known, or (c) if the length vector is normal. Some of our results allow the length vector to be non-generic, the corresponding polygon spaces have singularities. Our main tool is the study of the natural involution and its action on cohomology. A crucial role in our proof plays the solution of the isomorphism problem for monoidal rings due to J. Gubeladze

Make or Buy? Approaches to Financial Market Integration

The sharp differences between financial markets as they exist in Latin America and how we might expect them to look under full integration suggest that the financial constraints on Latin American economic development have much to do with the region`s financial markets` incomplete integration in the world financial system. This paper suggests that the underlying cause of Latin America`s limited integration with world financial markets is not explicit barriers to international financial transactions. Rather, weaknesses in the domestic financial markets that would be called upon to intermediate international capital flows impedes integration. An appropriate financial integration approach can strengthen and deepen the domestic financial system by permitting indirect imports of the requisite public goods (provided by the banks` home countries) and by allowing a greater diversification of national risks

Preventing Crisis and Contagion: Fiscal and Financial Dimensions

Recent economic developments highlight Latin America`s vulnerability to economic and financial turmoil that is triggered by events in distant corners of the globe. The Asian financial crisis that began in 1997 and the more recent Russian crisis have left the region profoundly shaken, and living in fear of a full-scale collapse. This contagion has occurred through a number of channels. The collapse of Asian demand has contributed to the recent slide in world commodity prices, cutting into the commodity-dependent region`s export income and undermining the public finances in a number of countries. The Russian devaluation has raised the spectre of sovereign default, making investors around the globe more wary of increasing their cross-border exposure. The financial crises in Asia and Russia have also severely undermined balance sheets of emerging-market investors, reducing their capacity to invest in the region, and forcing them into fire sales of their Latin American investments. In this paper we lay out the fiscal and financial policies that can help protect economies from the kind of global financial turbulence the world is now experiencing. Exchange rate policies are discussed in a separate paper

Macroeconomics of Capital Flows to Latin America: Experience and Policy Issues

This paper reviews recent experience with international capital flows in Latin America, and discusses the policy issues that surround them. The paper is predicated on three basic premises. Capital flows to the region are an important source of macroeconomic disturbance. Also, capital flows are very volatile. Large fluctuations in these flows are due in substantial part to factors external to Latin America. In addition, the fluctuations require a policy response. Policy should respond to sudden inflows or outflows of capital.