Estimating performance characteristics through observed nash equilibria

This article uses simple game models to investigate penalty kick shootouts in soccer. As opposed to existing research, which mainly focuses on empirical/experimental problems, the game itself is the main focus here. Interesting ndings include a proposed Nash equilibrium invariance for possible preference di erences between penalty kick Executors and Keepers as well as identi cation and demonstration of how game models may be used in order to estimate player performance characteristics through observed Nash equilibria outcomes. A non-mixed strategy Nash equilibrium is also shown to be possible with potential interesting consequences for goal keepers

The health queuing game

This paper studies agent-to-agent games in competition for a free public resource. The resource is not evidently scarce, scarcity may, however, be the equilibrium outcome. The agents' attributes may di er as well as quality parameters between di erent public resources. The examples are taken from the health sector. Based on simple two-player simultaneous games of complete information, results regarding agent equilibrium quality choices are derived. Most notably, Nash equilibria of the type: very ill patients choose low quality hospitals (denoted adverse patient allocation in the paper) are demonstrated. Furthermore, it is argued that a situation characterized by patients with relatively mild diseases but large patient variability (big di erences between patients regarding the given disease) and a health system with medium competition are prime candidates for Nash equilibria characterized by such Adverse patient allocation e ects

Point score systems and football coaching secrecy

In this paper, a game between two football (soccer) teams is analysed. The focus is on how the choice of point score system may affect Nash equilibria in a given simultaneous game and a corresponding sequential version. The reason for this choice, is (to some extent) experience related to the growing secrecy on pre-game strategic choices among football coaches. It is demonstrated by the relatively simple game theory, that the point score system plays a vital role in how teams (coaches) will “play” such games, given that they are rational and recognize Nash equilibrium as a reasonable game prediction. In fact, some evidence on an increased tendency for more pre-game strategic secrecy is logically established in a move from a 2-1-0 point score system to a 3-1-0 point score system.publishedVersio

Uncertainty of outcome and varying fan preferences : a game theoretic approach

This paper applies simple game theory to investigate an equilibrium link between composition of football clubs’ fans preferences and the clubs’ talent acquisition decisions. Such a link is identified, and wealth of the clubs turns out to be important for such equilibria to be established. However, even poor clubs can reach equilibria where they end up being winners of the “talent-acquisition-game”, given that their fans are ‘die-hard’ enough. In short; clubs with a long history and a dedicated fan base are much better prepared for successful competition in the football market.publishedVersio

Uncertainty of outcome and financial inequality : is the obvious not so obvious?

The article reports a series of regressions between various proxies for financial inequality and uncertainty of outcome in English football. The main finding is that no significant association between these two variables are identified. Potential alternative explanatory factors for uncertainty of outcome are also discussed, and a significant association between corruption and uncertainty of outcome is identified. Keywords: uncertainty of outcome, financial inequality, European football, gini index, corruption indexacceptedVersio

The alleged causality between number of teams in a league and national team quality

This article presents a simple linear regression between national football team quality and uncertainty of outcome in associated national leagues. The main results indicate no significant causal relationship between the variables, a conclusion somewhat contradictive to many practitioners argument on improving competitive balance in local leagues as a mean of improving national team quality. Keywords: Uncertainty of outcome, FIFA rank, number of teams in league, causality.acceptedVersio

Fighting doping through sport redesign

This commentary discusses how the rules of the game may affect doping positively and negatively. The link between rules and doping prevalence is established. Some examples are given, indicating what to do and not. The main scientific outcome of the paper is perhaps that the fight against doping can be performed cheaper than through classical means such as improved test quality/higher test frequency, or less progressive (more egalitarian) prize functions, or tougher sanctions. As such, the recommended strategy may be seen as a “Columbi Egg”. But, as always, nothing comes for free, and some serious creativity in sport redesign is needed to realize this method’s potential. Keywords: economics of doping, sport redesign, sport complexity, uncertainty of outcome, anti dopingacceptedVersio

90 years of Italian penalties : trends, importance, VAR, and adjusting the 12-yard mark

This article discusses an alternative to Video Assisted Refereeing (VAR) in football. An alternative option of positively adjusting the distance from the penalty spot to the goal, leading to a decrease in penalty scoring probabilities is suggested. 90 years of empirics from Serie A in Italy is used to discuss the suggested method. The article concludes by an example illustrating the proposed method. Keywords: serie A, penalty kicks, VAR, football, 12-yard markacceptedVersio

Uncertainty of outcome and rule changes in European handball

In this article, a new set of rules in professional handball, introduced in July 2016 are discussed. The discussion is aided by a reasonably broad empirical analysis, comparing uncertainty of outcome between European handball and football (soccer). This analysis indicates that European handball, already before the introduction of the new rules, may have had problems with severe lack of uncertainty of outcome. Given this fact, we discuss the new rules, and conclude that they may lead to further increased competitive imbalance (reduced uncertainty of outcome) in handball. Such a conclusion should be of interest for handball officials, especially when the new set of rules, here identified as possibly harmful for uncertainty of outcome, still are under debate. Keywords: uncertainty of outcome, handball rules, uncertainty of outcome measurementacceptedVersio