Modelling intensive care unit capacity under different epidemiological scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic in three Western European countries.

BACKGROUND: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed enormous strain on intensive care units (ICUs) in Europe. Ensuring access to care, irrespective of COVID-19 status, in winter 2020-2021 is essential. METHODS: An integrated model of hospital capacity planning and epidemiological projections of COVID-19 patients is used to estimate the demand for and resultant spare capacity of ICU beds, staff and ventilators under different epidemic scenarios in France, Germany and Italy across the 2020-2021 winter period. The effect of implementing lockdowns triggered by different numbers of COVID-19 patients in ICUs under varying levels of effectiveness is examined, using a 'dual-demand' (COVID-19 and non-COVID-19) patient model. RESULTS: Without sufficient mitigation, we estimate that COVID-19 ICU patient numbers will exceed those seen in the first peak, resulting in substantial capacity deficits, with beds being consistently found to be the most constrained resource. Reactive lockdowns could lead to large improvements in ICU capacity during the winter season, with pressure being most effectively alleviated when lockdown is triggered early and sustained under a higher level of suppression. The success of such interventions also depends on baseline bed numbers and average non-COVID-19 patient occupancy. CONCLUSION: Reductions in capacity deficits under different scenarios must be weighed against the feasibility and drawbacks of further lockdowns. Careful, continuous decision-making by national policymakers will be required across the winter period 2020-2021

Database of epidemic trends and control measures during the first wave of COVID-19 in mainland China.

OBJECTIVES: In this data collation study, we aimed to provide a comprehensive database describing the epidemic trends and responses during the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) throughout the main provinces in China. METHODS: From mid-January to March 2020, we extracted publicly available data regarding the spread and control of COVID-19 from 31 provincial health authorities and major media outlets in mainland China. Based on these data, we conducted descriptive analyses of the epidemic in the six most-affected provinces. RESULTS: School closures, travel restrictions, community-level lockdown, and contact tracing were introduced concurrently around late January but subsequent epidemic trends differed among provinces. Compared with Hubei, the other five most-affected provinces reported a lower crude case fatality ratio and proportion of critical and severe hospitalised cases. From March 2020, as the local transmission of COVID-19 declined, switching the focus of measures to the testing and quarantine of inbound travellers may have helped to sustain the control of the epidemic. CONCLUSIONS: Aggregated indicators of case notifications and severity distributions are essential for monitoring an epidemic. A publicly available database containing these indicators and information regarding control measures is a useful resource for further research and policy planning in response to the COVID-19 epidemic

Health, economic, and social impacts of substandard and falsified medicines in low- and middle-income countries:a systematic review of methodological approaches

Abstract Little is known about the adverse health, economic, and social impacts of substandard and falsified medicines (SFMs). This systematic review aimed to identify the methods used in studies to measure the impact of SFMs in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), summarize their findings, and identify gaps in the reviewed literature. A search of eight databases for published papers, and a manual search of references in the relevant literature were conducted using synonyms of SFMs and LMICs. Studies in the English language that estimated the health, social, or economic impacts of SFMs in LMICs published before June 17, 2022 were considered eligible. Search results generated 1,078 articles, and 11 studies were included after screening and quality assessment. All included studies focused on countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Six studies used the Substandard and Falsified Antimalarials Research Impact model to estimate the impact of SFMs. This model is an important contribution. However, it is technically challenging and data demanding, which poses challenges to its adoption by national academics and policymakers alike. The included studies estimate that substandard and falsified antimalarial medicines can account from 10% to ∼40% of total annual malaria costs, and SFMs affect rural and poor populations disproportionately. Evidence on the impact of SFMs is limited in general and nonexistent regarding social outcomes. Further research needs to focus on practical methods that can serve local authorities without major investments in terms of technical capacity and data collection

Efficacy of Bravecto® Plus spot-on solution for cats (280 mg/ml fluralaner and 14 mg/ml moxidectin) for the prevention of aelurostrongylosis in experimentally infected cats

Background!#!The feline lungworm Aelurostrongylus abstrusus affects the lower respiratory tract in cats worldwide. As infections may lead to chronic respiratory changes or even death, preventive treatment in cats with outdoor access is warranted.!##!Methods!#!The preventive efficacy of a spot-on solution (Bravecto® Plus spot-on solution for cats, MSD) against cat aelurostrongylosis was evaluated using three different preventive treatment regimes in a negative controlled, randomized and partially blinded laboratory efficacy study with 31 purposed-bred cats. The minimum recommended dose of 2.0 mg moxidectin + 40 mg fluralaner/kg bodyweight was applied once 12 (Group [G]1), 8 (G2) or 4 (G3) weeks before experimental infection with 300 third-stage larvae (L3) of A. abstrusus. Another group served as untreated control (G4). Individual faecal samples were analysed as of day 30 post infection (pi) to monitor larvae excretion. Necropsy was performed at days 47-50 pi. The lungs were examined macroscopically for pathological findings and (pre-)adult worms were counted to assess preventive efficacy.!##!Results!#!Beginning at day 32-40 pi, all cats of the control group were constantly shedding larvae of A. abstrusus, whereas only one animal of G1 excreted larvae at several consecutive days. In addition, two cats of G1 and G3 and three of G2 were positive on a single occasion. The geometric mean (GM) of the maximum number of excreted larvae was 7574.29 in the control group compared to 1.10 (G1), 1.19 (G2) and 0.53 (G3), resulting in a GM reduction of > 99.9% in all treatment groups. All lungs of the control animals showed severe or very severe alterations at necropsy, while in 94.44% of the treated cats lung pathology was rated as absent or mild. The GM number of (pre-)adult A. abstrusus retrieved from the lungs was 26.57 in the control group, 0.09 in G1 and 0.00 in G2 and G3. Thus, GM worm count reduction was 99.66% in G1 and 100% in G2 and G3.!##!Conclusions!#!A single application of Bravecto® Plus spot-on solution at a dose of 2.0 mg moxidectin + 40 mg fluralaner/kg bodyweight reliably prevents cat aelurostrongylosis for at least 12 weeks