Inference of historical population-size changes with allele-frequency data

With up to millions of nearly neutral polymorphisms now being routinely sampled in population-genomic surveys, it is possible to estimate the site-frequency spectrum of such sites with high precision. Each frequency class reflects a mixture of potentially unique demographic histories, which can be revealed using theory for the probability distributions of the starting and ending points of branch segments over all possible coalescence trees. Such distributions are completely independent of past population history, which only influences the segment lengths, providing the basis for estimating average population sizes separating tree-wide coalescence events. The history of population-size change experienced by a sample of polymorphisms can then be dissected in a model-flexible fashion, and extension of this theory allows estimation of the mean and full distribution of long-term effective population sizes and ages of alleles of specific frequencies. Here, we outline the basic theory underlying the conceptual approach, develop and test an efficient statistical procedure for parameter estimation, and apply this to multiple population-genomic datasets for the microcrustacean Daphnia pulex

Comparative Analysis of Super-Kamiokande and SNO Solar-Neutrino Data and the Photospheric Magnetic Field

We analyze Super-Kamiokande, SNO, and photospheric magnetic-field data for the common time interval, namely the SNO D2O phase. Concerning rotational modulation, the magnetic-field power spectrum shows the strongest peaks at the second and sixth harmonics of the solar synodic rotation frequency [3 nu(rot) and 7 nu(rot)]. The restricted Super-Kamiokande dataset shows strong modulation at the second harmonic. The SNO D2O dataset shows weak modulation at that frequency, but strong modulation in the sixth-harmonic frequency band. We estimate the significance level of the correspondence of the Super-Kamiokande second-harmonic peak with the corresponding magnetic-field peak to be 0.0004, and the significance level of the correspondence of the SNO D2O sixth-harmonic peak with the corresponding magnetic-field peak to be 0.009. By estimating the amplitude of the modulation of the solar neutrino flux at the second harmonic from the restricted Super-Kamiokande dataset, we find that the weak power at that frequency in the SNO D2O power spectrum is not particularly surprising. Concerning 9.43 yr-1, we find no peak at this frequency in the power spectrum formed from the restricted Super-Kamiokande dataset, so it is no surprise that this peak does not show up in the SNO D2O dataset, either.Comment: 32 pages, 8 tables, 16 figure

Constraints on the Variation of the Fine Structure Constant from Big Bang Nucleosynthesis

We put bounds on the variation of the value of the fine structure constant $\alpha$, at the time of Big Bang nucleosynthesis. We study carefully all light elements up to $^7$Li. We correct a previous upper limit on $|\Delta \alpha / \alpha|$ estimated from $^4$He primordial abundance and we find interesting new potential limits (depending on the value of the baryon-to-photon ratio) from $^7$Li, whose production is governed to a large extent by Coulomb barriers. The presently unclear observational situation concerning the primordial abundances preclude a better limit than |\Delta \alpha/\alpha| \lsim 2\cdot 10^{-2}, two orders of magnitude less restrictive than previous bounds. In fact, each of the (mutually exclusive) scenarios of standard Big Bang nucleosynthesis proposed, one based on a high value of the measured deuterium primordial abundance and one based on a low value, may describe some aspects of data better if a change in $\alpha$ of this magnitude is assumed.Comment: 21 pages, eps figures embedded using epsfig macr