The Conduct of Monetary Policy in Turkey in the Pre- and Post-crisis Period of 2001 in Comparative Perspective: a Case for Central Bank Independence

We document the role of independence for Central Bank of Republic of Turkey (CBRT) as it matters to successful implementation of monetary policy. We compare the implementation of monetary policy pre- and post-crisis periods within an empirical framework which allows us to measure the role of independence quantitatively. We estimate a Taylor rule with time varying coefficients by employing a dual extended Kalman filter. We find that the coefficient of inflation gap has increased substantially since CBRT gained de-juro independence.Taylor Rule, Kalman Filter, Monetary Policy

On the Political Economy of the Informal Sector and Income Redistribution

In this paper we analyze a general equilibrium model in which agents choose to be employed in formal or in the informal sector. The formal sector is taxed to provide income subsidies and the level of redistribution is determined endogenously through majority voting. We explore how the demand for redistribution determined by majority voting interacts with the incentive to work in the untaxed informal market. We also investigate how different levels of the informal sector wage can explain simultaneous changes in the size of the informal sector and level of redistribution. The model is simulated to produce qualitative results to illustrate the differences between economies with different distributional features. The model accounts for the different sizes of informal sector and income redistribution in Mexico and United States.Informal Sector, Income Redistribution, Median Voter

Estimating Central Bank Behavior in Emerging Markets: The Case of Turkey

Design of policy rules for an an emerging market central bank (EMCB) operating in an inflation-targeting framework presents additional challenges beyond those for describing the behavior of a central bank in a developed economy. Even though an inflation-targeting regime entails abolishing the exchange rate target in favor of an inflation target, it is more difficult for an EMBC to ignore movements in exchange rates given the relatively shallow depth of financial markets and the the high degree of dollarization. Additionally the EMCB may be forced to change the pursued exchange rate regime following a capital account reversal so that linear Taylor rules may be inadequate for describing EMCB reactions. We develop an empirical framework that addresses these issues and propose a new methodology to estimate unobserved variables such as expected inflation and potential output within the rule. Specifically, we employ a structural, nonlinear Kalman filter algorithm to estimate time-dependent parameters and unobserved variables, and we experiment with various exchange rate mechanisms that can be employed by an EMCB. This approach allows us to track any changes in EMCB behavior - including regime shifts - following a switch to inflation targeting. Using post-2001 data from Turkey, which is a fairly dollarized small open economy, we document that the Central Bank of Turkey has given relatively more importance to the inflation gap than to the output gap or to exchange rates, but not until some time after it had switched to an inflation-targeting framework.Dual Extended Kalman Filter, Taylor Rule, inflation targeting, emerging markets

Deciphering the Immune Landscape in Renal Cell Carcinoma and in Anti-PD-1 Therapy

Antigen recognition and T-cell mediated cytotoxicity are major tenets of cancer immunology that are not fully understood in clear-cell renal cell carcinoma (ccRCC). We evaluated multiregional treatment naïve nephrectomy samples from 27 patients as well as bloods samples from 21 and normal kidney tissue from 11 patients from the TRACERx Renal (TRAcking Cancer Evolution through therapy [Rx]) study via high dimensional flow cytometry. Results showed that the T cells in the tumour, normal kidney and blood have different phenotypes and differentiation patterns. A predominantly exhausted CD8 cell phenotype with expression of PD-1, TIM-3, Eomes, CD38 and CD39 was seen in the tumour immune microenvironment. ADAPTeR is a phase II study evaluating nivolumab (anti-PD1 antibody) in patients with treatment-naive metastatic ccRCC. Immunophenotyping by using high dimensional flow cytometry and multiplex immunofluorescence in addition to T cell receptor (TCR) sequencing was performed on 93 pre- and post-treatment, multi-region tumour and peripheral blood samples from 15 patients. We showed that an increased Granzyme B production in the CD8 cells and higher B cell infiltration at baseline were associated with response to Nivolumab. TCR sequencing analysis showed that maintenance of expanded TCR clones during the anti-PD1 treatment which were present pre-treatment and increased clustering of TCR clonotypes are associated with response to therapy. Comparing a responder patient with a non-responder by using single cell RNA Sequencing (SC RNA Seq) showed a more dysfunctional phenotype in the responder. In addition, Nivolumab bound CD8 cells in the responder also had higher Granzyme B and TCF7 expression suggesting a more cytotoxic and progenitor-like phenotype is associated with response. This study provides important data that needs to be validated in a bigger cohort to identify biomarkers of response to anti-PD-1 therapy in ccRCC

Consumer Preferences for Experiential Marketing and Wine Tourism Experience: Evidence from Turkey and Italy

openThe goal of the research is to examine consumer preferences for the wine tourism experience in Italy and Turkey, namely two countries with different cultures to understand how visitors interact with the vineyards, the winemakers, and the wine-tasting experience. The study investigates wine tourists in these two countries and identifies the factors that contribute to their satisfaction and loyalty.The goal of the research is to examine consumer preferences for the wine tourism experience in Italy and Turkey, namely two countries with different cultures to understand how visitors interact with the vineyards, the winemakers, and the wine-tasting experience. The study investigates wine tourists in these two countries and identifies the factors that contribute to their satisfaction and loyalty