International income risk-sharing and the global financial crisis of 2008-2009

This report examines the impact of the global financial crisis on the degree of international income and consumption risk-sharing among industrial economies using returns on cross-border portfolio holdings (e.g., debt, equity, FDI). It splits the returns from the net foreign holdings as receipts (inflows) and payments (outflows) to investigate which of the two sides exhibited the greater resilience for income risk-sharing during the recent crisis.First, it finds that debt delivered better risk-sharing than equity, mainly reflecting the deficit deterioration in EMU countries during the post-crisis period. FDI, by contrast, did not correspond to noticeable risk diversification. Second, separating output shocks into positive and negative components reveals that debt holding receipts (equity liability payments) performed better under negative (positive) realizations of the shock variable. Third, the unwinding of capital flows resulted in a sharp fall in income dis-smoothing via the debt liability channel in the new EU countries

From Home Bias to Euro Bias: Disentangling the Effects of Monetary Union on the European Financial Markets

Following the launch of the Euro in 1999, integration among Euro area financial markets increased considerably. As a result, portfolio home bias declined across the European financial markets. However, greater market integration has generated a new bias: portfolio Euro bias, a situation where Euro investors tend to hold large proportion of assets issued within the Euro region. The first part of this paper presents an empirical analysis of the economic factors at play behind the switch from home bias to Euro bias. We find that decline in default risk and transaction cost are two key determinants of the rise in portfolio Euro bias. The second part of the paper goes deeper into the effects of Euro bias on Euro area bond and equity markets. We observe that both government and corporate bond markets revealed clear signs of strain during the recent financial turmoil. Our results also reveal that the risk-reduction potential from geographic diversification within the Euro equity market is lower than that of the Euro sector diversification.Financial integration; home bias; Euro bias; transaction costs.

New Zealand's Preferential Trading Arrangements: Implications for the New Zealand Dairy Industry

This paper discusses the economic implications of the preferential trade agreements that New Zealand is currently negotiating, using a computable general equilibrium modelling framework. The New Zealand dairy industry is a particular focus in the results, which come from the GTAP model produced by Purdue University. Results are discussed from the independent simulations of preferential trade agreements between New Zealand and Korea, New Zealand and India, New Zealand and Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, New Zealand and the Gulf Cooperation Council, and expansion of the Trans-Pacific Partnership to include Australia, Peru, Viet Nam, Malaysia, and the United States of America.New Zealand, dairy industry, preferential trade agreements, Agribusiness, Land Economics/Use, Production Economics,

Sectoral Equity Returns in the Euro Region: Is There any Room for Reducing the Portfolio Risk?

The economic integration among Euro members has important consequences for the factors driving asset pricing and asset trading within the financial markets. In particular, since the start of the Euro, cross-country equity index correlations in the region have showed upward trends and domestic investors have allocated their portfolios mostly inside of the region. This paper studies the impact of these recent structural changes on the Euro-wide sectoral equity indices. We modeled the return and volatility of the Euro sector equity indices between years 1992 and 2007. We documented that aggregate world equity or global sector equity indices have not been affecting the sector equity indices since the beginning of the Euro. Aggregate Euro stock index, however, still has been affecting most of the sector equity indices, even though its effect has been declining remarkably for some sectors. In particular, we found that financial sector indices (financial services, insurance, and banking) are being affected increasingly by the aggregate Euro equity index fluctuations after the start of the Euro. However, some ``basic industry sector'' indices, including basic resources, food and beverage, health-care, retail services, and oil & gas had become less dependent to the aggregate Euro index within the same period, suggesting that diversification across these sectors within the region would be much more effective tool for reducing portfolio risk

Sectoral Equity Returns in the Euro Region: Is There any Room for Reducing the Portfolio Risk?

The economic integration among Euro members has important consequences for the factors driving asset pricing and asset trading within the financial markets. In particular, since the start of the Euro, cross-country equity index correlations in the region have showed upward trends and domestic investors have allocated their portfolios mostly inside of the region. This paper studies the impact of these recent structural changes on the Euro-wide sectoral equity indices. We modeled the return and volatility of the Euro sector equity indices between years 1992 and 2007. We documented that aggregate world equity or global sector equity indices have not been affecting the sector equity indices since the beginning of the Euro. Aggregate Euro stock index, however, still has been affecting most of the sector equity indices, even though its effect has been declining remarkably for some sectors. In particular, we found that financial sector indices (financial services, insurance, and banking) are being affected increasingly by the aggregate Euro equity index fluctuations after the start of the Euro. However, some ``basic industry sector'' indices, including basic resources, food and beverage, health-care, retail services, and oil & gas had become less dependent to the aggregate Euro index within the same period, suggesting that diversification across these sectors within the region would be much more effective tool for reducing portfolio risk

Proceedings of the Conference on Human and Economic Resources

Recent studies about estimating half-lives of purchasing power parity argues that heterogeneity bias resulting from aggregating the real exchange rate across sectors is important and should be taken into account. However, they do not use appropriate techniques to measure persistence. In this paper we use the extended median-unbiased estimation method in panel context for each sector separately and calculate both point estimates and confidence intervals. We conclude that controlling for sectoral heterogeneity bias and small sample bias will not solve the PPP puzzle.PPP persistence, real exchange rate, heterogeneity bias extended median-unbiased estimation, panel data

Sectoral Equity Returns in the Euro Region: Is There any Room for Reducing the Portfolio Risk?

The economic integration among Euro members has important consequences for the factors driving asset pricing and asset trading within the financial markets. In particular, since the start of the Euro, cross-country equity index correlations in the region have showed upward trends and domestic investors have allocated their portfolios mostly inside of the region. This paper studies the impact of these recent structural changes on the Euro-wide sectoral equity indices. We modeled the return and volatility of the Euro sector equity indices between years 1992 and 2007. We documented that aggregate world equity or global sector equity indices have not been affecting the sector equity indices since the beginning of the Euro. Aggregate Euro stock index, however, still has been affecting most of the sector equity indices, even though its effect has been declining remarkably for some sectors. In particular, we found that financial sector indices (financial services, insurance, and banking) are being affected increasingly by the aggregate Euro equity index fluctuations after the start of the Euro. However, some ``basic industry sector'' indices, including basic resources, food and beverage, health-care, retail services, and oil & gas had become less dependent to the aggregate Euro index within the same period, suggesting that diversification across these sectors within the region would be much more effective tool for reducing portfolio risk

Forecasting airport passenger traffic: the case of Hong Kong International Airport

Hong Kong International Airport is one of the main gateways to Mainland China and the major aviation hub in Asia. An accurate airport traffic demand forecast allows for short and long-term planning and decision making regarding airport facilities and flight networks. This paper employs the Box-Jenkins Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methodology to build and estimate the univariate seasonal ARIMA model and the ARIMX model with explanatory variables for forecasting airport passenger traffic for Hong Kong, and projecting its future growth trend from 2011to 2015. Both fitted models are found to have the lower Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) figures, and then the models are used to obtain ex-post forecasts with accurate forecasting results. More importantly, both ARIMA models predict a growth in future airport passenger traffic at Hong Kong

Windfarms and residential property values

This study examines the effect that windfarm visibility has on residential property values using a hedonic regression model. The study area is Ashhurst, New Zealand, a township of approximately 900 dwellings. Ashhurst is located within eight kilometres of two separate windfarms that were developed between 1998 and 2007 comprising 103x660kW turbines, 31x3MW turbines, and 55x1.65MW turbines. The analysis uses the 945 open market house sales that occurred in Ashhurst between 1995 and 2008. Visual impact of turbines is studied to capture the impact of windfarms and it is assessed using GIS viewshed analysis and by field inspection. The hedonic models had satisfactory explanatory performance and in each case indicated that the turbines located between 2.5 and 6 kilometres from the township of Ashhurst had no significant impact on property value