Brief Communication: Early season snowpack loss and implications for oversnow vehicle recreation travel planning

Oversnow vehicle recreation contributes to rural economies but requires a minimum snow depth to mitigate negative impacts on the environment. Daily snow water equivalent (SWE) observations from weather stations in the Lake Tahoe region (western USA) and a SWE reanalysis product are used to estimate the onset dates of SWE corresponding to ∼30&thinsp;cm in snow depth (SWEmin). Since 1985, median SWEmin onset has shifted later by approximately 2 weeks. Potential proximal causes of delayed onset are investigated; rainfall is increasing during October–January with dry days becoming warmer and more frequent. Adaptation strategies to address oversnow vehicle management challenges in recreation travel planning are explored.</p

Derivatives and Credit Contagion in Interconnected Networks

The importance of adequately modeling credit risk has once again been highlighted in the recent financial crisis. Defaults tend to cluster around times of economic stress due to poor macro-economic conditions, {\em but also} by directly triggering each other through contagion. Although credit default swaps have radically altered the dynamics of contagion for more than a decade, models quantifying their impact on systemic risk are still missing. Here, we examine contagion through credit default swaps in a stylized economic network of corporates and financial institutions. We analyse such a system using a stochastic setting, which allows us to exploit limit theorems to exactly solve the contagion dynamics for the entire system. Our analysis shows that, by creating additional contagion channels, CDS can actually lead to greater instability of the entire network in times of economic stress. This is particularly pronounced when CDS are used by banks to expand their loan books (arguing that CDS would offload the additional risks from their balance sheets). Thus, even with complete hedging through CDS, a significant loan book expansion can lead to considerably enhanced probabilities for the occurrence of very large losses and very high default rates in the system. Our approach adds a new dimension to research on credit contagion, and could feed into a rational underpinning of an improved regulatory framework for credit derivatives.Comment: 26 pages, 7 multi-part figure

Cavity approach for real variables on diluted graphs and application to synchronization in small-world lattices

We study XY spin systems on small world lattices for a variety of graph structures, e.g. Poisson and scale-free, superimposed upon a one dimensional chain. In order to solve this model we extend the cavity method in the one pure-state approximation to deal with real-valued dynamical variables. We find that small-world architectures significantly enlarge the region in parameter space where synchronization occurs. We contrast the results of population dynamics performed on a truncated set of cavity fields with Monte Carlo simulations and find excellent agreement. Further, we investigate the appearance of replica symmetry breaking in the spin-glass phase by numerically analyzing the proliferation of pure states in the message passing equations.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figure

Replica symmetry breaking in the `small world' spin glass

We apply the cavity method to a spin glass model on a `small world' lattice, a random bond graph super-imposed upon a 1-dimensional ferromagnetic ring. We show the correspondence with a replicated transfer matrix approach, up to the level of one step replica symmetry breaking (1RSB). Using the scheme developed by M\'ezard & Parisi for the Bethe lattice, we evaluate observables for a model with fixed connectivity and $\pm J$ long range bonds. Our results agree with numerical simulations significantly better than the replica symmetric (RS) theory.Comment: 21 pages, 3 figure

Solvable model of a phase oscillator network on a circle with infinite-range Mexican-hat-type interaction

We describe a solvable model of a phase oscillator network on a circle with infinite-range Mexican-hat-type interaction. We derive self-consistent equations of the order parameters and obtain three non-trivial solutions characterized by the rotation number. We also derive relevant characteristics such as the location-dependent distributions of the resultant frequencies of desynchronized oscillators. Simulation results closely agree with the theoretical ones

Dynamical replica theoretic analysis of CDMA detection dynamics

We investigate the detection dynamics of the Gibbs sampler for code-division multiple access (CDMA) multiuser detection. Our approach is based upon dynamical replica theory which allows an analytic approximation to the dynamics. We use this tool to investigate the basins of attraction when phase coexistence occurs and examine its efficacy via comparison with Monte Carlo simulations.Comment: 18 pages, 2 figure

Inference of kinetic Ising model on sparse graphs

Based on dynamical cavity method, we propose an approach to the inference of kinetic Ising model, which asks to reconstruct couplings and external fields from given time-dependent output of original system. Our approach gives an exact result on tree graphs and a good approximation on sparse graphs, it can be seen as an extension of Belief Propagation inference of static Ising model to kinetic Ising model. While existing mean field methods to the kinetic Ising inference e.g., na\" ive mean-field, TAP equation and simply mean-field, use approximations which calculate magnetizations and correlations at time $t$ from statistics of data at time $t-1$, dynamical cavity method can use statistics of data at times earlier than $t-1$ to capture more correlations at different time steps. Extensive numerical experiments show that our inference method is superior to existing mean-field approaches on diluted networks.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures, comments are welcom

Prospects for local co-governance

British local authorities and their partners are increasingly developing new ways of working together with local communities. The nature of this co-working, however, is complex, multi-faceted and little understood. This article argues for greater clarity of thinking on the topic, by analysing this co-working as a form of political co-governance, and drawing attention in particular to issues of scale and democracy. Using evidence from a study of 43 local authority areas, 16 authorities are identified where co-governance is practised, following three main types of approach: service-influencing, service-delivering and parish council developing. It is concluded that strengthening political co-governance is essential for a healthy democracy

Implosion hydrodynamics of fast ignition targets

Copyright 2005 American Institute of Physics. This article may be downloaded for personal use only. Any other use requires prior permission of the author and the American Institute of Physics. The following article appeared in Physics of Plasmas, 12(5), 056312, 2005 and may be found at http://dx.doi.org/10.1063/1.189695