Has the Amplitude of Business Cycles Deepened in the Post-World War II Era? A Variance Analysis of Thirty-Five Countries

According to Karl Marx, business cycles in capitalist economies should increase in amplitude over time. In this hypothesis, income and wealth inequality should increase within a capitalist system, resulting in increased economic instability. Thanks to Keynesian policy recommendations, governments and central banks have discovered policy options for correcting downturns in the economy. However, if Marx is correct, policy makers will face business cycle movements ever-increasing in severity. In this article, we review Marx’s hypothesis in the literature. Further, we briefly look at recent (post-war) data to see if empirical evidence supports Marx’s original claim

Keynes’ Unscientific Theory of Consumption Function and Its False Policy Implication for the Multiplier Effect: A Review of Disaggregated Evidence

The assumption that the Marginal Propensity to Consume (MPC) and the resulting multiplier are fairly stable at the aggregate level irrespective of the time frame, commonly articulated in some post-Keynesian literature and introductory macroeconomic texts and universally used as the building block of fiscal policy decisions, are false concepts. In this enquiry, we examine the robustness of this proposition using disaggregated disposable income to demonstrate that neo-Keynesians’ generalization that consumers in different income brackets would react similarly to a change in income is refuted by the weight of historical evidence. We derive estimates of the MPC in the short-run and the long-run using recent data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). We show that the whole is not the sum of its parts when it comes to the MPC. This insight should give teachers a more accurate description of short-run consumption behavior. Our objective is to extend students’ understanding of the complexity of the economy and reveal that there are many intricate mysteries that are yet to be expounded (Note 1)

THE EMPIRICAL CORRELATION BETWEEN US-CHINA TRADE BALANCE AND CHANGES IN THE YUAN-DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATE: A SURVEY OF THE EVIDENCE

The alleged undervaluation of yuan is blamed to be the main cause of rising levels of trade deficits in the United States. The major objective of the present research is to investigate and further analyze if and how changes in the value of China’s currency in the last 31 years (for which we have reliable monthly data) has produced an imbalance in the US-China trade patterns. This research is designed to clarify and empirically assess the extent to which the relative value of yuan against the US dollar has impacted United States imports from China