The prevalence of prosperous shrinking cities.

The majority of the shrinking cities literature focuses solely on instances of population loss and economic decline. This article argues that shrinking cities exist on a spectrum between prosperity and decline. Taking a wider view of population loss, I explore the possibility of prosperous shrinking cities: if they exist, where they exist, and under what conditions shrinking cities can thrive. Examining census place data from the 1980 to 2010 U.S. Census and American Community Surveys, 27 percent of 886 shrinking cities were found to have income levels greater than their surrounding regions. Shrinking and prosperous shrinking cities of all sizes were found across the United States. Shrinkage was most prevalent in the Rust Belt region and prosperous shrinkage in coastal regions. Prosperous shrinking cities were overwhelmingly found within megapolitan regions and were rarely principal cities. Multivariate regression analysis found that both population (city size) and the severity of shrinkage (magnitude of population loss) had no effect on economic prosperity. Talent (location quotient of education) was found to be the strongest predictor of prosperous shrinkage

Remaking the Rust Belt: The Postindustrial Transformation of North America

Book review by Maxwell Hartt of Remaking the Rust Belt: The Postindustrial Transformation of North America, Tracy Neumann author

The diversity of North American shrinking cities

Demographically and economically, there is an ongoing global shift that has resulted in the uneven development and distribution of monetary, human and knowledge capital. This paper first examines and consolidates economic, social and urban theories of growth and decline and demonstrates how globalisation has conceptually shifted the spatial scale and trajectory of urban change theories. The examination of the population trajectories of the 100 largest American cities from 1980 to 2010 demonstrates that the majority either grew or shrank continuously. This trend counters early cyclical models and supports the argument that globalisation has altered population trajectories. Second, conceptualisations of urban shrinkage trajectories are reviewed and a two-dimensional trajectory typology encompassing both economic and demographic change is presented. The diversity of urban shrinkage experiences is demonstrated through the application of the typology to the 20 largest shrinking American cities, 12 of which experienced overall population loss and simultaneous economic growth

Local Scale Population Projection Methods: Shrinking and Aging Communities

Poster Presentation The emergence of a globalized economy has given rise to ‘global cities’ where knowledge, resource and human capital conglomerate – often at the cost of outmigration of resources in smaller cities. In the Canadian context, the growth of a few major centers is contrasted with many smaller and peripheral cities that may be coping with shrinking populations and economic decline. These effects are increasingly compounded by a second demographic transition, which is characterized by falling birth rates and an aging population. Continued loss of population, changing demographic structure, and economic decline can lead to a myriad of challenges, including underused infrastructure, high vacancy rates, and socio-economic inequality. As Statistics Canada’s population projections are limited to the provincial, territorial and national level, individual municipalities are left to calculate their own projections, which could be hindered by a lack of resources, the complexity of calculating local-scale migration rates, or simply may not be done. This paper reviews the methodological differences reflected in the approaches taken by various levels of government and concludes that more complex, time consuming and expensive models are used at higher levels of governance and in larger cities and are more likely to provide more accurate and precise results. Smaller and peripheral cities tend to use simpler, less time- and resource-intensive methods. An assessment framework of nine criteria concluded that the share capture method is the best methodological alternative for local scale population projection. The share capture model is applied to every municipality (with population above 10,000) in Ontario and projected dependency ratios are calculated to ascertain the future distribution of aging communities in Ontario

Urban Transformations: Centres, Peripheries and Systems

Book review by Maxwell Hartt of Urban Transformations: Centres, Peripheries and Systems, Daniel P. O'Donoghue, editor

Shifting perceptions in shrinking cities: The influence of governance, time and geography on local (in)action.

The ability of local planners and decision-makers to effectively manage population loss and economic decline has been limited by the availability of shrinkage strategies in the planning toolbox and the stigma of shrinkage within the growth-oriented culture of planning. This paper assesses the applicability of a service rightsizing strategy in two shrinking Canadian municipalities in order to ascertain how local perception facilitates or impedes action. Although deemed theoretically applicable by the six key informants, the strategy was ultimately considered practically infeasible in both cities due to governance barriers. Despite similar conclusions, the local perception of shrinkage and response strategies was found to be influenced by the geographic location and longevity of shrinkage. The paper postulates that the duration of shrinkage processes and local perceptions are tied to the stage of deindustrialization and the changing demographic makeup of the city

City Size and Academic Focus: Exploring Trends in Canadian Urban Geography, Planning and Policy Literature

Between 1996 and 2001 almost half of the cities in Canada lost population. This uneven pattern of growthprompted an examination of the English-language urban geography, planning and policy-related academicliterature, which determined that Canadian urban academic journals fixated on large, growing metropolitanareas. Revisiting this literature a decade later, large cities have continued to dominate the academic discourse. Although articles dedicated to smaller and mid-sized cities are still relatively underrepresented in the literature, research focusing on more than one size of urban area has grown tremendously refl ecting an emerging interest in regional connectivity and a rise in the perception of urban areas as systems, rather than individual entities

Act Small and Think Big: Exploring the Plurality and Complexity of Shrinking Cities

Demographically and economically, there is an ongoing global shift that has resulted in the uneven development and distribution of monetary, human and knowledge capital, and the emergence of global and shrinking cities. The ability of local planners and decision-makers in shrinking cities to effectively manage population loss and economic decline has been limited by the deficiency of available strategies to address the challenges of shrinkage and the stigma of shrinkage within the growth-oriented culture of planning. Although the causes urban shrinkage have been widely discussed, little research has explored the complexity and diversity of the various processes contributing to urban shrinkage. A two-dimensional shrinking city trajectory typology encompassing both economic and demographic change is developed as a baseline approach to discussing, depicting and classifying shrinking cities. The diversity of urban shrinkage experiences is demonstrated through the examination of the twenty largest American cities to lose population between 1980 and 1990 - fifteen of the twenty cities experienced varying degrees of population loss while simultaneously showing signs of economic growth. The diversity and complexity of urban shrinkage is further explored using a novel cross-correlation network analysis approach to disentangle the complex processes contributing to and stemming from population loss. Two Canadian shrinking municipalities, Chatham-Kent, Ontario and Cape Breton Regional Municipality, Nova Scotia are examined over a period of seventeen years (1997-2013). Results indicate that factors in the urban shrinkage process are strongly interrelated and exhibit circular trends and feedback mechanisms. The analysis also shows significant regional differentiation as each case study has a unique set of processes that preceded population loss. However there were commonalities between the distinct cross-correlation networks. Specifically, unemployment, employment and labor participation rates were indicative of immigration and emigration trends, changes in unemployment were inversely related to housing permit rates and intraprovincial migration was strongly linked to changes in housing starts and completions. Lastly, a shrinkage strategy transferability framework is developed to explore the diversity of local decision-makers’ perceptions of the applicability of shrinkage strategies. The framework is applied to the two Canadian shrinking municipalities to evaluate the transferability of a service rightsizing strategy. Although deemed compatible and transferable by the author and six key informants, the strategy was ultimately considered inapplicable in both municipalities due to governance barriers. Despite similar conclusions, local perceptions of shrinkage and response strategies were found to be influenced by differences in geographic location and longevity of shrinkage. This dissertation contributes to our understanding of the diversity and complexity of urban shrinkage experiences by (1) challenging the reliance on population change as the sole indicator of urban shrinkage trajectories, (2) demonstrating the complexity and distinctiveness of urban shrinkage processes and (3) advancing that the duration of shrinkage and local perceptions are tied to the stage of deindustrialization and the changing demographic makeup of the municipality

Shrinking cities, shrinking households, or both?

Household size decline accounts for a substantial portion of population loss in shrinking cities, yet little research has focused on it. Much of the literature presents a simple growth/decline binary that is largely determined via population figures. In this paper, we highlight the importance and assess the impact of household size changes on population decline, and determine what types of household size declines are more acute in shrinking cities than other locales. We find that elderly households and households with school‐aged children are under‐represented in shrinking cities, while households with pre‐school‐aged children are over‐represented. More tellingly, we find the biggest source of household‐related loss in shrinking cities to be the growth of single‐person households now living in houses that were once home to entire families. These findings puncture the binary on which much of the shrinking cities discourse is based. The population dynamics of most cities are subtler than either practitioners or critical scholars assert. We argue that plans and development strategies for shrinking cities should reflect a range of demographic changes, including outmigration and internal household restructuring