Influence of Doubled CO2 on Ozone via Changes in the Brewer–Dobson Circulation

In this short note, the effect of enhanced circulation due to doubling CO2 on ozone is investigated. The difference of Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC) between the doubled CO2 and control run from an idealized atmospheric general circulation model is added to the BDC climatology derived from National Centers for Environmental Prediction—Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 (NCEP2) from 1979 to 2002. Then it is used to drive the California Institute of Technology/Jet Propulsion Laboratory (Caltech/JPL) two-dimensional chemistry and transport model. The results reveal that the total ozone increases by 7 and 3.5 Dobson units (DU) in the high latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, respectively, and decreases by 4 DU in the Tropics as a result of the increase in BDC associated with doubled CO2. If the change of eddy mixing coefficients after doubling CO2 is also considered, the total ozone will increase by 6.5 and 3 DU in the high latitudes of the Northern and Southern Hemispheres after combining both effects from the change in BDC and eddy mixing coefficients

Clouds and the atmospheric circulation response to warming

We study the effect of clouds on the atmospheric circulation response to CO2 quadrupling in an aquaplanet model with a slab-ocean lower boundary. The cloud effect is isolated by locking the clouds to either the control or 4xCO2 state in the shortwave (SW) or longwave (LW) radiation schemes. In our model, cloud-radiative changes explain more than half of the total poleward expansion of the Hadley cells, midlatitude jets, and storm tracks under CO2 quadrupling, even though they cause only one-fourth of the total global-mean surface warming. The effect of clouds on circulation results mainly from the SW cloud-radiative changes, which strongly enhance the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient at all levels in the troposphere, favoring stronger and poleward-shifted midlatitude eddies. By contrast, quadrupling CO2 while holding the clouds fixed causes strong polar amplification and weakened midlatitude baroclinicity at lower levels, yielding only a small poleward expansion of the circulation. Our results show that (a) the atmospheric circulation responds sensitively to cloud-driven changes in meridional and vertical temperature distribution, and (b) the spatial structure of cloud feedbacks likely plays a dominant role in the circulation response to greenhouse gas forcing. While the magnitude and spatial structure of the cloud feedback are expected to be highly model-dependent, an analysis of 4xCO2 simulations of CMIP5 models shows that the SW cloud feedback likely forces a poleward expansion of the tropospheric circulation in most climate models

Mechanisms of the negative shortwave cloud feedback in mid to high latitudes

Increases in cloud optical depth and liquid water path (LWP) are robust features of global warming model simulations in high latitudes, yielding a negative shortwave cloud feedback, but the mechanisms are still uncertain. We assess the importance of microphysical processes for the negative optical depth feedback by perturbing temperature in the microphysics schemes of two aquaplanet models, both of which have separate prognostic equations for liquid water and ice. We find that most of the LWP increase with warming is caused by a suppression of ice microphysical processes in mixed-phase clouds, resulting in reduced conversion efficiencies of liquid water to ice and precipitation. Perturbing the temperature-dependent phase partitioning of convective condensate also yields a small LWP increase. Together, the perturbations in large-scale microphysics and convective condensate partitioning explain more than two-thirds of the LWP response relative to a reference case with increased SSTs, and capture all of the vertical structure of the liquid water response. In support of these findings, we show the existence of a very robust positive relationship between monthly-mean LWP and temperature in CMIP5 models and observations in mixed-phase cloud regions only. In models, the historical LWP sensitivity to temperature is a good predictor of the forced global warming response poleward of about 45°, although models appear to overestimate the LWP response to warming compared to observations. We conclude that in climate models, the suppression of ice-phase microphysical processes that deplete cloud liquid water is a key driver of the LWP increase with warming and of the associated negative shortwave cloud feedback

Observational evidence for a negative shortwave cloud feedback in middle to high latitudes

Exploiting the observed robust relationships between temperature and optical depth in extratropical clouds, we calculate the shortwave cloud feedback from historical data, by regressing observed and modeled cloud property histograms onto local temperature in middle to high southern latitudes. In this region, all CMIP5 models and observational data sets predict a negative cloud feedback, mainly driven by optical thickening. Between 45° and 60°S, the mean observed shortwave feedback (−0.91 ± 0.82 W m−2 K−1, relative to local rather than global mean warming) is very close to the multimodel mean feedback in RCP8.5 (−0.98 W m−2 K−1), despite differences in the meridional structure. In models, historical temperature-cloud property relationships reliably predict the forced RCP8.5 response. Because simple theory predicts this optical thickening with warming, and cloud amount changes are relatively small, we conclude that the shortwave cloud feedback is very likely negative in the real world at middle to high latitudes

Classifying the tropospheric precursor patterns of sudden stratospheric warmings

Classifying the tropospheric precursor patterns of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) may provide insight into the different physical mechanisms of SSWs. Based on 37 major SSWs during the 1958–2014 winters in the ERA reanalysis data sets, the self-organizing maps method is used to classify the tropospheric precursor patterns of SSWs. The cluster analysis indicates that one of the precursor patterns appears as a mixed pattern consisting of the negative-signed Western Hemisphere circulation pattern and the positive phase of the Pacific-North America pattern. The mixed pattern exhibits higher statistical significance as a precursor pattern of SSWs than other previously identified precursors such as the subpolar North Pacific low, Atlantic blocking, and the western Pacific pattern. Other clusters confirm northern European blocking and Gulf of Alaska blocking as precursors of SSWs. Linear interference with the climatological planetary waves provides a simple interpretation for the precursors. The relationship between the classified precursor patterns of SSWs and ENSO phases as well as the types of SSWs is discussed

The role of synoptic waves in the formation and maintenance of the Western Hemisphere circulation pattern

Previous studies have demonstrated that the NAO, the leading mode of atmospheric low-frequency variability over the North Atlantic, could be linked to Northeast Pacific climate variability via the downstream propagation of synoptic waves. In those studies, the NAO and the Northeast Pacific climate variability are considered as two separate modes that explain the variance over the North Atlantic sector and the East Pacific–North America sector, respectively. A newly identified low-frequency atmospheric regime — the Western Hemisphere (WH) circulation pattern—provides a unique example of a mode of variability that accounts for variance over the whole North Atlantic–North America– North Pacific sector. The role of synoptic waves in the formation and maintenance of the WH pattern is investigated using the ERA reanalysis datasets. Persistent WH events are characterized by the propagation of quasi-stationary Rossby waves across the North Pacific–North America–North Atlantic regions and by associated storm track anomalies. The eddy-induced low-frequency height anomalies maintain the anomalous low-frequency ridge over the Gulf of Alaska, which induces more equatorward propagation of synoptic waves on its downstream side. The eddy forcing favors the strengthening of the mid-latitude jet and the deepening of the mid-high latitude trough over the North Atlantic, whereas the deepening of the trough over eastern North America mostly arises from the quasi-stationary waves propagating from the North Pacific. A case study for the 2013/14 winter is examined to illustrate the downstream development of synoptic waves. The roles of synoptic waves in the formation and maintenance of the WH pattern and in linking the Northeast Pacific ridge anomaly with the NAO are discussed

Dynamics of Annular Variability (Extended Abstract)

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Does the Holton–Tan Mechanism Explain How the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation Modulates the Arctic Polar Vortex?

Idealized experiments with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) are used to explore the mechanism(s) whereby the stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) modulates the Northern Hemisphere wintertime stratospheric polar vortex. Overall, the effect of the critical line emphasized in the Holton–Tan mechanism is less important than the effect of the mean meridional circulation associated with QBO winds for the polar response to the QBO. More specifically, the introduction of easterly winds at the equator near 50 hPa 1) causes enhanced synoptic-scale Eliassen–Palm flux (EPF) convergence in the subtropics from 150 to 50 hPa, which leads to the subtropical critical line moving poleward in the lower stratosphere, and 2) creates a barrier to planetary wave propagation from subpolar latitudes to midlatitudes in the middle and upper stratosphere (e.g., less equatorward EPF near 50°N), which leads to enhanced planetary wave convergence in the polar vortex region. These two effects are mechanistically distinct; while the former is related to the subtropical critical line, the latter is due to the mean meridional circulation of the QBO. All of these effects are consistent with linear theory, although the evolution of the entire wind distribution is only quasi-linear because induced zonal wind changes cause the wave driving to shift and thereby positively feed back on the zonal wind changes. Finally, downward propagation of the QBO in the equatorial stratosphere, upper stratospheric equatorial zonal wind, and changes in the tropospheric circulation appear to be less important than lower stratospheric easterlies for the polar stratospheric response. Overall, an easterly QBO wind anomaly in the lower stratosphere leads to a weakened stratospheric polar vortex, in agreement with previous studies, although not because of changes in the subtropical critical line

Stratosphere-troposphere evolution during polar vortex intensification

Stratosphere-troposphere evolution associated with polar vortex intensification (VI) events is examined during the Northern Hemisphere winter. The incipient stage of a VI event is marked by anomalously low wave activity and descending westerly anomalies over the depth of the polar stratosphere. Reduced poleward planetary wave heat flux occurs as the circumpolar wind becomes strongest and pressure anomalies penetrate toward the surface. Descending pressure patterns project strongly onto the positive state of the Northern Hemisphere Annular Mode (NAM). Concurrently, anomalous poleward momentum flux develops in the upper troposphere, and the related tropospheric mean meridional circulation maintains the attendant wind and temperature anomalies against surface drag. The gross behavior of the composite VI event is similar in shape but opposite in sign to that associated with sudden stratospheric warming events (SSWs). However, the descent of the wind and temperature anomalies over the VI life cycle is generally weaker and slower than its SSW counterpart preceding the maximum vortex anomaly. Similarly, after the maximum wind event, the weakening of the winds is faster than the strengthening of the winds after a SSW. This is because stratospheric wind reduction anomalies are produced by wave driving, which can be rapid, and increases in wind speed are associated with the radiative cooling of the polar cap, which happens more gradually. While the contributions of the anomalous momentum fluxes by the quasi-stationary and synoptic eddies are similar to SSWs, the much stronger anomalous momentum flux observed during VI can be attributed to the larger role of eddies with timescales between 15 and 40 days and of wave number 2 scale. Notable differences between VI and SSW appear in the tropical region. In particular, anomalous vortex intensification seems to occur preferentially during La Niña conditions