A comparison of short-term and long-term air pollution exposure associations with mortality in two cohorts in Scotland

Air pollution–mortality risk estimates are generally larger at longer-term, compared with short-term, exposure time scales. We compared associations between short-term exposure to black smoke (BS) and mortality with long-term exposure–mortality associations in cohort participants and with short-term exposure–mortality associations in the general population from which the cohorts were selected. We assessed short-to-medium–term exposure–mortality associations in the Renfrew–Paisley and Collaborative cohorts (using nested case–control data sets), and compared them with long-term exposure–mortality associations (using a multilevel spatiotemporal exposure model and survival analyses) and short-to-medium–term exposure–mortality associations in the general population (using time-series analyses). For the Renfrew–Paisley cohort (15,331 participants), BS exposure–mortality associations were observed in nested case–control analyses that accounted for spatial variations in pollution exposure and individual-level risk factors. These cohort-based associations were consistently greater than associations estimated in time-series analyses using a single monitoring site to represent general population exposure {e.g., 1.8% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.1, 3.4%] vs. 0.2% (95% CI: 0.0, 0.4%) increases in mortality associated with 10-μg/m3 increases in 3-day lag BS, respectively}. Exposure–mortality associations were of larger magnitude for longer exposure periods [e.g., 3.4% (95% CI: –0.7, 7.7%) and 0.9% (95% CI: 0.3, 1.5%) increases in all-cause mortality associated with 10-μg/m3 increases in 31-day BS in case–control and time-series analyses, respectively; and 10% (95% CI: 4, 17%) increase in all-cause mortality associated with a 10-μg/m3 increase in geometic mean BS for 1970–1979, in survival analysis]. After adjusting for individual-level exposure and potential confounders, short-term exposure–mortality associations in cohort participants were of greater magnitude than in comparable general population time-series study analyses. However, short-term exposure–mortality associations were substantially lower than equivalent long-term associations, which is consistent with the possibility of larger, more persistent cumulative effects from long-term exposures

Solving non-uniqueness in agglomerative hierarchical clustering using multidendrograms

In agglomerative hierarchical clustering, pair-group methods suffer from a problem of non-uniqueness when two or more distances between different clusters coincide during the amalgamation process. The traditional approach for solving this drawback has been to take any arbitrary criterion in order to break ties between distances, which results in different hierarchical classifications depending on the criterion followed. In this article we propose a variable-group algorithm that consists in grouping more than two clusters at the same time when ties occur. We give a tree representation for the results of the algorithm, which we call a multidendrogram, as well as a generalization of the Lance and Williams' formula which enables the implementation of the algorithm in a recursive way.Comment: Free Software for Agglomerative Hierarchical Clustering using Multidendrograms available at http://deim.urv.cat/~sgomez/multidendrograms.ph

Narrowband UVB phototherapy for clinically isolated syndrome: A trial to deliver the benefits of Vitamin D and other UVB-Induced molecules

Low vitamin D and insufficient sun exposure are additive independent risk factors for the development of multiple sclerosis (MS). The usual measure of vitamin D status, serum 25-hydroxy vitamin D [25(OH)D], is also a marker of recent exposure to the UVB rays of sunshine. The main evidence for a protective effect for MS development of higher 25(OH)D comes from observational studies, but this study design cannot separate out whether 25(OH)D is acting as a marker of vitamin D status, sun exposure, or both. In light of a lack of definitive outcomes in MS patients after trials of vitamin D supplementation and the ability of narrowband UVB to induce vitamin D, as well as other immune-regulatory molecules in skin, the Phototherapy for Clinically Isolated Syndrome (PhoCIS) trial was established to investigate the benefits of narrowband UVB, in addition to supplemented vitamin D, on MS development in individuals with Clinically Isolated Syndrome. We propose that the PhoCIS trial provides a fresh approach to re-defining the reported associations of 25(OH)D levels with MS development and progression

The effect of underwater sounds on shark behaviour

The effect of sound on the behaviour of sharks has not been investigated since the 1970s. Sound is, however, an important sensory stimulus underwater, as it can spread in all directions quickly and propagate further than any other sensory cue. We used a baited underwater camera rig to record the behavioural responses of eight species of sharks (seven reef and coastal shark species and the white shark, Carcharodon carcharias) to the playback of two distinct sound stimuli in the wild: an orca call sequence and an artificially generated sound. When sounds were playing, reef and coastal sharks were less numerous in the area, were responsible for fewer interactions with the baited test rigs, and displayed less ‘inquisitive’ behaviour, compared to during silent control trials. White sharks spent less time around the baited camera rig when the artificial sound was presented, but showed no significant difference in behaviour in response to orca calls. The use of the presented acoustic stimuli alone is not an effective deterrent for C. carcharias. The behavioural response of reef sharks to sound raises concern about the effects of anthropogenic noise on these taxa

Changes in serum neurofilament light chain levels following narrowband ultraviolet B phototherapy in clinically isolated syndrome

Objective To determine whether serum neurofilament light chain (sNfL) levels are suppressed in patients with the clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) following narrowband ultraviolet B phototherapy (UVB-PT). Methods sNfL levels were measured using a sensitive single-molecule array assay at baseline and up to 12 months in 17 patients with CIS, 10 of whom received UVB-PT, and were compared with healthy control (HC) and early relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) group. sNfL levels were correlated with magnetic resonance imaging total lesion volume (LV) determined using icobrain version 4.4.1 and with clinical outcomes. Results Baseline median sNfL levels were significantly higher in the CIS (20.6 pg/mL, interquartile range [IQR] 13.7–161.4) and RRMS groups (36.6 pg/ml [IQR] 16.2–212.2) than in HC (10.7 pg/ml [IQR] 4.9–21.5) (p = .012 and p = .0002, respectively), and were strongly correlated with T2 and T1 LV at 12 months (r = .800; p = .014 and r = .833; p = .008, respectively) in the CIS group. Analysis of changes in sNfL levels over time in the CIS group showed a significant cumulative suppressive effect of UVB-PT in the first 3 months (UVB-PT −10.6% vs non-UVB-PT +58.3%; p = .04) following which the levels in the two groups converged and continued to fall. Conclusions Our findings provide the basis for further studies to determine the utility of sNfL levels as a marker of neuro-axonal damage in CIS and early MS and for assessing the efficacy of new therapeutic interventions such as UVB-PT

An Experimental Investigation of Colonel Blotto Games

"This article examines behavior in the two-player, constant-sum Colonel Blotto game with asymmetric resources in which players maximize the expected number of battlefields won. The experimental results support all major theoretical predictions. In the auction treatment, where winning a battlefield is deterministic, disadvantaged players use a 'guerilla warfare' strategy which stochastically allocates zero resources to a subset of battlefields. Advantaged players employ a 'stochastic complete coverage' strategy, allocating random, but positive, resource levels across the battlefields. In the lottery treatment, where winning a battlefield is probabilistic, both players divide their resources equally across all battlefields." (author's abstract)"Dieser Artikel untersucht das Verhalten von Individuen in einem 'constant-sum Colonel Blotto'-Spiel zwischen zwei Spielern, bei dem die Spieler mit unterschiedlichen Ressourcen ausgestattet sind und die erwartete Anzahl gewonnener Schlachtfelder maximieren. Die experimentellen Ergebnisse bestätigen alle wichtigen theoretischen Vorhersagen. Im Durchgang, in dem wie in einer Auktion der Sieg in einem Schlachtfeld deterministisch ist, wenden die Spieler, die sich im Nachteil befinden, eine 'Guerillataktik' an, und verteilen ihre Ressourcen stochastisch auf eine Teilmenge der Schlachtfelder. Spieler mit einem Vorteil verwenden eine Strategie der 'stochastischen vollständigen Abdeckung', indem sie zufällig eine positive Ressourcenmenge auf allen Schlachtfeldern positionieren. Im Durchgang, in dem sich der Gewinn eines Schlachtfeldes probabilistisch wie in einer Lotterie bestimmt, teilen beide Spieler ihre Ressourcen gleichmäßig auf alle Schlachtfelder auf." (Autorenreferat

Higher serum immunoglobulin G3 levels may predict the development of multiple sclerosis in individuals with Clinically Isolated Syndrome

Clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) is a first episode of neurological symptoms that may precede a diagnosis of multiple sclerosis (MS). Therefore, studying individuals with CIS may lead to breakthroughs in understanding the development and pathogenesis of MS. In this study, serum levels of immunoglobulin (Ig)G, IgA, IgM, and IgG1–4 were measured in 20 people with CIS and compared with those in 10 healthy controls (HC) and 8 people with MS. Serum Ig levels in individuals with CIS were compared with (a) the time to their conversion from CIS to MS, (b) serum levels of antibodies to Epstein–Barr virus, (c) frequencies of T regulatory (Treg), T follicular regulatory (Tfr), and B cell subsets, and (d) Treg/Tfr expression of Helios. Serum IgG, IgM, and IgG2 levels were significantly lower in people with CIS than HC, and IgG, IgM, and IgG1 levels were significantly lower in people with CIS than MS. After adjusting for age, sex, and serum 25(OH) vitamin D3 [25(OH)D] levels, CIS was associated with lower serum levels of IgG and IgG2 compared with HC (p = 0.001 and p < 0.001, respectively). People with MS had lower IgG2 levels (p < 0.001) and IgG2 proportions (%IgG; p = 0.007) compared with HC. After adjusting for age, sex, and 25(OH)D, these outcomes remained, in addition to lower serum IgA levels (p = 0.01) and increased IgG3 levels (p = 0.053) in people with MS compared with HC. Furthermore, serum from people with MS had increased proportions of IgG1 and IgG3 (p = 0.03 and p = 0.02, respectively), decreased proportions of IgG2 (p = 0.007), and greater ratios of “upstream” to “downstream” IgG subclasses (p = 0.001) compared with HC. Serum IgG3 proportions (%IgG) from people with CIS correlated with the frequency of plasmablasts in peripheral blood (p = 0.02). Expression of Helios by Treg and Tfr cell subsets from individuals with CIS correlated with levels of serum IgG2 and IgG4. IgG3 levels and proportions of IgG3 (%IgG) in serum at CIS diagnosis were inversely correlated with the time until conversion to MS (p = 0.018 and p < 0.001, respectively), suggesting they may be useful prognostic markers of individuals with CIS who rapidly convert to MS