GARFIELD-AF model for prediction of stroke and major bleeding in atrial fibrillation: a Danish nationwide validation study.

OBJECTIVES: To externally validate the accuracy of the Global Anticoagulant Registry in the FIELD-Atrial Fibrillation (GARFIELD-AF) model against existing risk scores for stroke and major bleeding risk in patients with non-valvular AF in a population-based cohort. DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING: Danish nationwide registries. PARTICIPANTS: 90 693 patients with newly diagnosed non-valvular AF were included between 2010 and 2016, with follow-up censored at 1 year. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: External validation was performed using discrimination and calibration plots. C-statistics were compared with CHA2DS2VASc score for ischaemic stroke/systemic embolism (SE) and HAS-BLED score for major bleeding/haemorrhagic stroke outcomes. RESULTS: Of the 90 693 included, 51 180 patients received oral anticoagulants (OAC). Overall median age (Q1, Q3) were 75 (66-83) years and 48 486 (53.5%) were male. At 1-year follow-up, a total of 2094 (2.3%) strokes/SE, 2642 (2.9%) major bleedings and 10 915 (12.0%) deaths occurred. The GARFIELD-AF model was well calibrated with the predicted risk for stroke/SE and major bleeding. The discriminatory value of GARFIELD-AF risk model was superior to CHA2DS2VASc for predicting stroke in the overall cohort (C-index: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.70 to 0.72 vs C-index: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.66 to 0.68, p<0.001) as well as in low-risk patients (C-index: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.59 to 0.69 vs C-index: 0.57, 95% CI: 0.53 to 0.61, p=0.007). The GARFIELD-AF model was comparable to HAS-BLED in predicting the risk of major bleeding in patients on OAC therapy (C-index: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.63 to 0.66 vs C-index: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.63 to 0.65, p=0.60). CONCLUSION: In a nationwide Danish cohort with non-valvular AF, the GARFIELD-AF model adequately predicted the risk of ischaemic stroke/SE and major bleeding. Our external validation confirms that the GARFIELD-AF model was superior to CHA2DS2VASc in predicting stroke/SE and comparable with HAS-BLED for predicting major bleeding

Hypertension persisting after pre-eclampsia: a prospective cohort study at Mulago Hospital, Uganda.

BACKGROUND: Pre-eclampsia/eclampsia usually resolves after delivery but sometimes hypertension persists and cardiovascular disease develops later. Our objective was to determine the incidence and maternal socio-demographic and obstetric risk factors for persistence of hypertension in women with pre-eclampsia/eclampsia. METHODS: This was a prospective cohort study conducted from July 2009 to June 2011 at Mulago Hospital labour ward and postnatal clinics. We followed up 188 women admitted with pre-eclampsia/eclampsia until 3 months after delivery. Data was collected using interviewer-administered questionnaires, examination of participants and review of medical records. Stata (version12) software was used for data analysis. Univariable analysis was used to compute the relative risk of persistent hypertension at the 95% confidence level. This was followed by multivariable logistic regression analysis to determine factors independently associated with persistence of hypertension. RESULTS: 64 (34%) out of the 188 women analysed had persistent hypertension three months after delivery. Maternal age, gestational age at delivery and parity were predictors of persistent hypertension. CONCLUSION: The proportion of women with pre-eclampsia/eclampsia at risk of persistent hypertension at three months after delivery was high, with nearly one of three mothers remaining hypertensive. Follow up of mothers who develop pre-eclampsia is important so that early diagnosis and management of chronic hypertension can be made to avoid long term morbidity and mortality