Predicting resource-dependent maternal health outcomes at a referral hospital in Zanzibar using patient trajectories and mathematical modeling.

Poor intra-facility maternity care is a major contributor to maternal mortality in low- and middle-income countries. Close to 830 women die each day due to preventable maternal complications, partly due to the increasing number of women giving birth in health facilities that are not adequately resourced to manage growing patient populations. Barriers to adequate care during the 'last mile' of healthcare delivery are attributable to deficiencies at multiple levels: education, staff, medication, facilities, and delays in receiving care. Moreover, the scope and multi-scale interdependence of these factors make individual contributions of each challenging to analyze, particularly in settings where basic data registration is often lacking. To address this need, we have designed and implemented a novel systems-level and dynamic mathematical model that simulates the impact of hospital resource allocations on maternal mortality rates at Mnazi Mmoja Hospital (MMH), a referral hospital in Zanzibar, Tanzania. The purpose of this model is to provide a rigorous and flexible tool that enables hospital administrators and public health officials to quantitatively analyze the impact of resource constraints on patient outcomes within the maternity ward, and prioritize key areas for further human or capital investment. Currently, no such tool exists to assist administrators and policy makers with effective resource allocation and planning. This paper describes the structure and construct of the model, provides validation of the assumptions made with anonymized patient data and discusses the predictive capacity of our model. Application of the model to specific resource allocations, maternal treatment plans, and hospital loads at MMH indicates through quantitative results that medicine stocking schedules and staff allocations are key areas that can be addressed to reduce mortality by up to 5-fold. With data-driven evidence provided by the model, hospital staff, administration, and the local ministries of health can enact policy changes and implement targeted interventions to improve maternal health outcomes at MMH. While our model is able to determine specific gaps in resources and health care delivery specifically at MMH, the model should be viewed as an additional tool that may be used by other facilities seeking to analyze and improve maternal health outcomes in resource constrained environments

Rapidly adaptable automated interpretation of point-of-care COVID-19 diagnostics

Abstract Background Point-of-care diagnostic devices, such as lateral-flow assays, are becoming widely used by the public. However, efforts to ensure correct assay operation and result interpretation rely on hardware that cannot be easily scaled or image processing approaches requiring large training datasets, necessitating large numbers of tests and expert labeling with validated specimens for every new test kit format. Methods We developed a software architecture called AutoAdapt POC that integrates automated membrane extraction, self-supervised learning, and few-shot learning to automate the interpretation of POC diagnostic tests using smartphone cameras in a scalable manner. A base model pre-trained on a single LFA kit is adapted to five different COVID-19 tests (three antigen, two antibody) using just 20 labeled images. Results Here we show AutoAdapt POC to yield 99% to 100% accuracy over 726 tests (350 positive, 376 negative). In a COVID-19 drive-through study with 74 untrained users self-testing, 98% found image collection easy, and the rapidly adapted models achieved classification accuracies of 100% on both COVID-19 antigen and antibody test kits. Compared with traditional visual interpretation on 105 test kit results, the algorithm correctly identified 100% of images; without a false negative as interpreted by experts. Finally, compared to a traditional convolutional neural network trained on an HIV test kit, the algorithm showed high accuracy while requiring only 1/50th of the training images. Conclusions The study demonstrates how rapid domain adaptation in machine learning can provide quality assurance, linkage to care, and public health tracking for untrained users across diverse POC diagnostic tests