Gaat expertise stralingsbescherming achteruit?: Inventarisatie van Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek en Onderwijs in de Stralingsbescherming

Er is minder aandacht en financiering voor de wetenschappelijke basis van de stralingsbescherming, het aantal onderzoeksgroepen en hun output nemen af en stralingsbeschermingskennis raakt steeds meer versnipperd. Uit enquête en workshop volgt dat het stralingsbeschermingsonderwijs nog wel toeneemt, maar dat het daarbij vooral gaat om opleidingen in de praktische stralingsbescherming en om te voldoen aan wettelijke eisen ten aanzien van stralingsbeschermingsdeskundigheid, en niet om wetenschappelijk onderwij

Skin cancer risks avoided by the Montreal Protocol - Worldwide modeling integrating coupled climate-chemistry models with a risk model for UV

The assessment model for ultraviolet radiation and risk “AMOUR” is applied to output from two chemistry-climate models (CCMs). Results from the UK Chemistry and Aerosols CCM are used to quantify the worldwide skin cancer risk avoided by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments: by the year 2030, two million cases of skin cancer have been prevented yearly, which is 14% fewer skin cancer cases per year. In the “World Avoided,” excess skin cancer incidence will continue to grow dramatically after 2030. Results from the CCM E39C-A are used to estimate skin cancer risk that had already been inevitably committed once ozone depletion was recognized: excess incidence will peak mid 21st century and then recover or even super-recover at the end of the century. When compared with a “No Depletion” scenario, with ozone undepleted and cloud characteristics as in the 1960s throughout, excess incidence (extra yearly cases skin cancer per million people) of the “Full Compliance with Montreal Protocol” scenario is in the ranges: New Zealand: 100–150, Congo: −10–0, Patagonia: 20–50, Western Europe: 30–40, China: 90–120, South-West USA: 80–110, Mediterranean: 90–100 and North-East Australia: 170–200. This is up to 4% of total local incidence in the Full Compliance scenario in the peak yea

Why is it so hard to gain enough Vitamin D by solar exposure in the European winter?

UV exposure, which is the main source for a sufficient level of vitamin D in the human body, is found to be up to a factor of 7 lower in Northern Germany (52° N) in the winter months compared to UV levels in thecentral region of New Zealand’s South Island (45° S). When corrected for the influence of solar zenith angle, the vitamin D-weighted exposure is still a factor of 2 higher in the southern hemisphere at the corresponding latitude. The major part of the difference can be attributed to differences in cloudiness, and a minor part to total ozone and aerosols. Data from several stations in Europe show a high variability due to cloudiness differences between the stations and between different years, but they also show that the differences are not restricted to individual sites and may characterize a northern versus southern hemisphere contrast. Wintertime erythemally-weighted irradiance is also found to be much higher in New Zealand than in Europe. Whereas on a monthly average clouds weaken the UV irradiation by up to 25% for most locations in New Zealand, the reduction is usually up to 50% in central Europe in winter

Variability of UV irradiance in Europe

The diurnal and annual variability of solar UV radiation in Europe is described for different latitudes, seasons and different biologic weighting functions. For the description of this variability under cloudless skies the widely used onedimensional version of the radiative transfer model UVSPEC is used. We reconfirm that the major factor influencing the diurnal and annual variability of UV irradiance is solar elevation. While ozone is a strong absorber of UV radiation its effect is relatively constant when compared with the temporal variability of clouds. We show the significant role that clouds play in modifying the UV climate by analyzing erythemal irradiance measurements from 28 stations in Europe in summer. On average, the daily erythemal dose under cloudless skies varies between 2.2 kJ m-2 at 70N and 5.2 kJ m-2 at 35N, whereas these values are reduced to 1.5–4.5 kJ m-2 if clouds are included. Thus clouds significantly reduce the monthly UV irradiation, with the smallest reductions, on average, at lower latitudes, which corresponds to the fact that it is often cloudless in the Mediterranean area in summer

Europe's darker atmosphere in the UV-B

Irradiation in the ultraviolet wavelength range is found to be up to 50% lower in the European Summer compared to sites with comparable latitudes in New Zealand. We have developed a method to quantitatively attribute the causes for such differences between sites by analysis of spectra. We conclude that these large differences are caused mainly by differences in total ozone, Cloudiness, aerosol loading and Sun-Earth separation. The relative contribution of clouds varies from year to year and it is site dependent. Averaged over several years we find a strong latitudinal gradient of the Cloud impact within Europe, With Much less cloud attenuation in southern Europe. Due to the differences in total ozone and aerosol loading, the UV-B levels are generally lower in Europe compared to New Zealand. It is likely that inter-hemispheric differences will change in coming decades due to a combination of changes in ozone concentrations, air pollution and cloudiness as a result of climate change. However, since the future evolution of these major parameters is highly uncertain, the Magnitude and even the sign of such changes are not known yet

ENSEMBLE Dispersion Modelling. Part II. Application and Evaluation.

Abstract not availableJRC.H-Institute for environment and sustainability (Ispra