The distributional impact of macroeconomic shocks in Mexico: threshold effects in a multi-region CGE model

This paper presents a regionally disaggregated computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of Mexico in order to examine the differential effects of external shocks across the regions. The model demonstrates how the internal migration regime is affected by exogenous changes in the presence of threshold effects, in which an exogenous change may not effect regional behavior until the shocks are large enough to overcome the isolation of local markets. The results show that migration helps mitigate the income changes caused by the simulations.Equilibrium (Economics) Econometric models., Equilibrium (Economics) Simulation methods., Migration, Internal.,

A computable general equilibrium analysis of Mexico's agricultural policy reforms

Since the late 1980s, Mexico has liberalized its agricultural sector, moving from a system of price supports, producer subsidies and consumer subsidies to a less distorting scheme in which market forces play a greater role. Coinciding with these agrarian and food policy reforms, the government has implemented the PROCAMPO system of direct payments to farmers. There is a general consensus that a direct payment program has the potential to be more efficient than a system of subsidies and supports. At the same time, there is widespread agreement that other policies need to be put in place to assure protection of the economically vulnerable segments of the population. Within this context, this paper uses a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the regional, household and economy-wide effects of switching from the old system of price supports and subsidies to the new system of PROCAMPO payments. A CGE model of Mexico is constructed with four rural regions and one urban region and a high disaggregation of the agricultural and food sectors. It also includes 15 households, defined according to region and income level to permit a rich analysis of distribution effects. The initial experiment consists of removing the PROCAMPO payments from the base year (1996) and adding back the subsidy and support scheme as it existed in 1993, the year before PROCAMPO began. Then two policies are tested under an exchange rate depreciation to see how each policy regime reacts to adverse shocks. The simulations demonstrate that in a static situation, lump sum payments are preferred to the system of subsidies and price supports. In the event of a negative external shock, the simulations suggest that the old system performs better in terms of output and rural incomes. However, urban households are worse off, and their size in total population may make this an unattractive policy.

Economy-wide effects of El Niño / Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in Mexico and the role of improved forecasting and technological change

Weather fluctuations, such as those caused by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), add to the riskiness associated with agricultural production. Improved predictive capacity may help ameliorate negative impacts of climate and weather shocks on agriculture, but it is possible that the benefits of an improved forecast will be distributed unevenly. In particular, poor farmers may not have access to improved forecasts, or they may not have the means to adapt to new weather information. This paper uses a stochastic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to examine the distributive effects of improved forecasting of ENSO in Mexico. The particular focus is on agriculture, one of the most vulnerable sectors in the face of ENSO, as well as a sector which provides income to many of the country's poorest households. The model is used to investigate the responsiveness of various sectors of the economy under different degrees of improved predictive capacity and improvements in agricultural technology....The results show that while agricultural losses are small as a share of the overall economy, improved forecasting techniques can eliminate these lossesStochastic analysis ,Agriculture Environmental aspects Mexico ,Climatic changes Models ,Agricultural productivity ,Forecasting ,TMD ,

Evaluating targeted cash transfer programs: a general equilibrium framework with an application to Mexico

This report focuses on the indirect and direct effects of transfer programs. In particular, it shows how modelling results can be combined with information from standard household surveys to provide an integrated analysis of the direct distributional impact of such programs and the indirect distributional and efficiency impacts arising from domestic financing mechanisms. This approach reflects the view that any credible poverty alleviation strategy must have a credible financing strategy underlying it, and this need for domestic financing can have important consequences for both the level and the distribution of household incomes. To illustrate the approach, the report focuses on the recent introduction in Mexico of an innovative poverty alleviation transfer program called PROGRESA, which has been used as a prototype for similar programs that have recently been implemented in other developing countries.Economic assistance, Domestic Mexico Evaluation, Public welfare - Mexico Evaluation,

Evaluating transfer programs within a general equilibrium framework

The authors set out a general equilibrium model for the evaluation of a domestically financed transfer program, which helps to combine the results from a computable general equilibrium model with disaggregated household data.Using a Mexican cash transfer program as an illustration, they use the approach to show that the substantial welfare gains that result from the switch from universal food subsidies to targeted cash transfers reflect both the improved targeting efficiency of the latter as well as a relaxation of the trade-off between equity and efficiency objectives when designing tax systems.FCND ,Subsidies Mexico. ,Transfer payments. ,Equilibrium (Economics) Models. ,

A regional general equilibrium analysis of the welfare impact of cash transfers

Using a regionally disaggregated computable general equilibrium model, we analyze the differential welfare impacts of a cash transfer program targeted at rural areas. The direct effect of the transfers decreases regional income differentials, but the indirect effects depend on how the program is financed. Financing the program with a more efficient tax system is also less regressive and has favorable urban impacts. The less efficient instruments result in relatively higher incomes in all rural regions, but are more regressive. The increasing share of urban poverty highlights the shortcomings of rural targeting and raises the issue of horizontal equity.Welfare economics. ,Rural population. ,Econometric models. ,TMD ,

Evaluating transfer programs within a general equilibrium framework

The authors set out a general equilibrium model for the evaluation of a domestically financed transfer program, which helps to combine the results from a computable general equilibrium model with disaggregated household data.Using a Mexican cash transfer program as an illustration, they use the approach to show that the substantial welfare gains that result from the switch from universal food subsidies to targeted cash transfers reflect both the improved targeting efficiency of the latter as well as a relaxation of the trade-off between equity and efficiency objectives when designing tax systems.Subsidies Mexico. ,Transfer payments. ,Equilibrium (Economics) Models. ,

Examining Disequilibrium in an Immersion Experience

This study examines the disequilibrium raised by a cultural immersion experience, using the structure of White racial identity development, in an effort to better scaffold the immersion experience in the future. Thirty-two students participated in an immersion experience in Quito, Ecuador. The study follows their experience as they strive to make sense of their experience and begin to understand and unpack their own sense of privilege. The six stages of racial identity development are used as a grid through which to view and consider the experiences of teacher candidates in a cultural immersion experience. Two predominant themes included schools/classroom management, and language/culture/race

The effects of bag style on muscle activity of the trapezius, erector spinae and latissimus dorsi during walking in female university students

© by The Author(s). This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License. (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0)Back pain is common in adolescents which has been associated with carrying a bag. However, there is little research examining the effects of bag style in female adolescents. The aim of the study was to investigate the effects of different bag conditions on muscle activity of the trapezius, erector spinae and latissimus dorsi muscles in female university students during walking. Twelve female university students walked on a treadmill for 5 minutes at 1.1 m/s during five conditions; control, 1 strapped rucksack, 2 strapped rucksack, ipsilateral shoulder strap and contralateral shoulder strap, each containing 10% bodyweight. Electromyography for the trapezius, erector spinae and latissimus dorsi was recorded for the last 30 s of each condition. Two-way ANOVA and paired t-tests were used to identify differences between right and left muscles and between bag conditions. Results showed that muscle activity of the left trapezius was significantly higher than the right trapezius during the 1 strap rucksack condition. For the left trapezius, the 2 strapped rucksack and the control condition had significantly lower muscle activity compared to the 1 strapped rucksack and the ipsilateral shoulder strap. For the left erector spinae muscle, there was significantly greater muscle activity when wearing the contralateral shoulder strap compared to the control. For the right erector spinae, significantly lower muscle activity was observed when wearing the 2 strapped rucksack compared to the ipsilateral shoulder strap and contralateral shoulder strap. There were no significant differences in muscle activity of the latissimus dorsi muscles between any of the bag conditions. These findings suggest that a two strapped rucksack should be used when carrying loads to reduce spinal muscle activity which may, in turn, reduce reports of back pain in female adolescentPeer reviewedFinal Published versio