Appendix to Harris, Mason and Ryan LAC Isle of Wight realist evaluation

Using an Agent Based Model to estimate the avoided costs of the LAC Coordination schem

Some Fiscal Implications of Monetary Policy

We study the implications of alternative monetary targeting procedures for real interest rates and economic activity. We find that countercyclical monetary policy rules lead to higher real interest rates, higher average tax rates, lower output but lower variability of tax rates and consumption relative to procyclical rules. For a country with a high level of public debt (e.g. Italy), the adoption of a counter cyclical proceedure such as interest rate pegging may conceivably raise public debt servicing costs by more than half a percentage point of GNP. Our analysis suggests that the current debate on the targeting proceedures of the European Central Bank ought to be broadened to include a discussion of the fiscal implications of monetary policy.

Truth and Robustness in Cross-country Growth Regressions

The work of Levine and Renelt (1992) and Sala-i-Martin (1997a, b) which attempted to test the robustness of various determinants of growth rates of per capita GDP among countries using two variants of Edward Leamerâ??s extreme-bounds analysis is reexamined. In a realistic Monte Carlo experiment in which the universe of potential determinants is drawn from those in Levine and Reneltâ??s study, both versions of the extreme-bounds analysis are evaluated for their ability to recover the true specification. Levine and Reneltâ??s method is shown to have low size and extremely low power: nothing is robust; while Sala-i-Martinâ??s method is shown to have high size and high power: it is undiscriminating. Both methods are compared to a cross-sectional version of the generalto-specific search methodology associated with the LSE approach to econometrics. It is shown to have size near nominal size and high power. Sala-i-Martinâ??s method and the general-to-specific method are then applied to the actual data from the original two studies. The results are consistent with the Monte Carlo results and are suggestive that the factors that most affect differences of growth rates are ones that are beyond the control of policymakers.growth, cross-country growth regressions, extreme-bounds analysis, general-to-specific specification search

A Small Target Neutrino Deep-Inelastic Scattering Experiment at the First Muon Collider

Several different scenarios for neutrino scattering experiments using a neutrino beam from the muon collider complex are discussed. The physics reach of a neutrino experiment at the front end of a muon collider is shown to extend far beyond that of current neutrino experiments, since the high intensity neutrino beams one would see at the muon collider allow for a large flexibility in choosing neutrino targets. Measurements of quark spin, A-dependence of the structure function $xF_3$ and neutral current chiral couplings to quarks are outlined.Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, to appear in the proceedings of the Workshop on Physics at the First Muon Collider and at the Front End of a Muon Collider, November 1997, Fermila

Equals: Redefining the Way Graphic Design and Narrative Film Combine to Create Visual Metaphor

This paper provides a methodology for combining Graphic Design and Narrative Film together in a way that creates a type of visual metaphor that is central to the story and characters of the film. Because visual mediums of communication are so intrinsically tied to verbal means of communication, this methodology is grounded in the linguistic study of poetry and metaphor. Thus, the concept of metaphor will be analyzed thoroughly in language, poetry, fine arts, and modern arts. The ways in which metaphor is created visually through the art forms of graphic design and narrative film will be of upmost interest here. The various methodologies for creating visual metaphor in these two art forms will be established and then combined to create a new methodology for using graphic design with film in a poetic way. This new methodology will also include a summary of how basic design principles must change when overlaying graphic design and typography with moving images. Secondary research (including case studies of films and graphic design) will be the most beneficial way of accumulating the necessary information to establish this methodology. This information will finally be implemented in the creation of a ten-minute short film, which follows the story of a girl who thinks she might have brain cancer