Learning Bayesian Networks from Correlated Data

Bayesian networks are probabilistic models that represent complex distributions in a modular way and have become very popular in many fields. There are many methods to build Bayesian networks from a random sample of independent and identically distributed observations. However, many observational studies are designed using some form of clustered sampling that introduces correlations between observations within the same cluster and ignoring this correlation typically inflates the rate of false positive associations. We describe a novel parameterization of Bayesian networks that uses random effects to model the correlation within sample units and can be used for structure and parameter learning from correlated data without inflating the Type I error rate. We compare different learning metrics using simulations and illustrate the method in two real examples: an analysis of genetic and non-genetic factors associated with human longevity from a family-based study, and an example of risk factors for complications of sickle cell anemia from a longitudinal study with repeated measures.This is the publisher’s final pdf. The published article is copyrighted by the author(s) and published by Nature Publishing Group. The published article can be found at: http://www.nature.com/articles/srep2515

The Changing Landscape for Stroke\ua0Prevention in AF: Findings From the GLORIA-AF Registry Phase 2

Background GLORIA-AF (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation) is a prospective, global registry program describing antithrombotic treatment patterns in patients with newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation at risk of stroke. Phase 2 began when dabigatran, the first non\u2013vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC), became available. Objectives This study sought to describe phase 2 baseline data and compare these with the pre-NOAC era collected during phase 1. Methods During phase 2, 15,641 consenting patients were enrolled (November 2011 to December 2014); 15,092 were eligible. This pre-specified cross-sectional analysis describes eligible patients\u2019 baseline characteristics. Atrial fibrillation disease characteristics, medical outcomes, and concomitant diseases and medications were collected. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results Of the total patients, 45.5% were female; median age was 71 (interquartile range: 64, 78) years. Patients were from Europe (47.1%), North America (22.5%), Asia (20.3%), Latin America (6.0%), and the Middle East/Africa (4.0%). Most had high stroke risk (CHA2DS2-VASc [Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age  6575 years, Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke, Vascular disease, Age 65 to 74 years, Sex category] score  652; 86.1%); 13.9% had moderate risk (CHA2DS2-VASc = 1). Overall, 79.9% received oral anticoagulants, of whom 47.6% received NOAC and 32.3% vitamin K antagonists (VKA); 12.1% received antiplatelet agents; 7.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. For comparison, the proportion of phase 1 patients (of N = 1,063 all eligible) prescribed VKA was 32.8%, acetylsalicylic acid 41.7%, and no therapy 20.2%. In Europe in phase 2, treatment with NOAC was more common than VKA (52.3% and 37.8%, respectively); 6.0% of patients received antiplatelet treatment; and 3.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. In North America, 52.1%, 26.2%, and 14.0% of patients received NOAC, VKA, and antiplatelet drugs, respectively; 7.5% received no antithrombotic treatment. NOAC use was less common in Asia (27.7%), where 27.5% of patients received VKA, 25.0% antiplatelet drugs, and 19.8% no antithrombotic treatment. Conclusions The baseline data from GLORIA-AF phase 2 demonstrate that in newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients, NOAC have been highly adopted into practice, becoming more frequently prescribed than VKA in Europe and North America. Worldwide, however, a large proportion of patients remain undertreated, particularly in Asia and North America. (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation [GLORIA-AF]; NCT01468701

Assortative Mating by Ethnicity in Longevous Families

Recent work shows strong evidence of ancestry-based assortative mating in spouse pairs of the older generation of the Framingham Heart Study. Here, we extend this analysis to two studies of human longevity: the Long Life Family Study (LLFS), and the New England Centenarian Study (NECS). In the LLFS, we identified 890 spouse pairs spanning two generations, while in the NECS we used data from 102 spouse pairs including offspring of centenarians. We used principal components of genome-wide genotype data to demonstrate strong evidence of ancestry-based assortative mating in spouse pairs of the older generation and also confirm the decreasing trend of endogamy in more recent generations. These findings in studies of human longevity suggest that spouses marrying into longevous families may not be powerful controls for genetic association studies, and that there may be important ethnicity-specific, genetic influences and/or gene–environment interactions that influence extreme survival in old generations. In addition, the decreasing trend of genetic similarity of more recent generations might have ramifications for the incidence of homozygous rare variants necessary for survival to the most extreme ages

BaeLearningBayesianNetworks.pdf

Bayesian networks are probabilistic models that represent complex distributions in a modular way and have become very popular in many fields. There are many methods to build Bayesian networks from a random sample of independent and identically distributed observations. However, many observational studies are designed using some form of clustered sampling that introduces correlations between observations within the same cluster and ignoring this correlation typically inflates the rate of false positive associations. We describe a novel parameterization of Bayesian networks that uses random effects to model the correlation within sample units and can be used for structure and parameter learning from correlated data without inflating the Type I error rate. We compare different learning metrics using simulations and illustrate the method in two real examples: an analysis of genetic and non-genetic factors associated with human longevity from a family-based study, and an example of risk factors for complications of sickle cell anemia from a longitudinal study with repeated measures

Effects of FOXO3 Polymorphisms on Survival to Extreme Longevity in Four Centenarian Studies

Previous studies note specific FOXO3 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with human longevity. However, it is not clear if these SNPs influence mortality risk beyond the oldest 1 percentile of survival. Using data from four longevity studies (total n = 8,266, age range 96-119 years for cases), we tested gene-wide association between 107 SNPs and survival to at least the oldest 1 percentile of survival for the 1900 birth cohort (≥96, white males; ≥100 white females). This analysis replicated 17 previously published variants, several of which are significant expression quantitative trait loci of FOXO3; rs6911407 and rs2253310 have the most significant effect on FOXO3 expressions in brain tissue. We then performed a survival analysis to determine if any of these 107 SNPs impact upon mortality risk beyond the oldest 1 percentile. While none of the 17 published variants was significantly associated with mortality risk beyond this extreme age, an uncommon homozygote genotype of rs9384680 exhibited the strongest association with mortality risk (p = 2.68E-04) in only 11 females, a heretofore unreported association. These analyses replicate the previous association of common variants of FOXO3 with older age but these common variants do not modify risk for mortality at ages beyond the oldest 1 percentile age of survival

PopCluster: an algorithm to identify genetic variants with ethnicity-dependent effects

Over the last decade, more diverse populations have been included in genome-wide association studies (GWAS). If a genetic variant has a varying effect on a phenotype in different populations, GWAS applied to a dataset as a whole may not pinpoint such differences. It is especially important to be able to identify population-specific effects of genetic variants in studies that would eventually lead to development of diagnostic tests or drug discovery

Four Genome-Wide Association Studies Identify New Extreme Longevity Variants

The search for the genetic determinants of extreme human longevity has been challenged by the phenotype's rarity and its nonspecific definition by investigators. To address these issues, we established a consortium of four studies of extreme longevity that contributed 2,070 individuals who survived to the oldest one percentile of survival for the 1900 U.S. birth year cohort. We conducted various analyses to discover longevity-associated variants (LAV) and characterized those LAVs that differentiate survival to extreme age at death (eSAVs) from those LAVs that become more frequent in centenarians because of mortality selection (eg, survival to younger years). The analyses identified new rare variants in chromosomes 4 and 7 associated with extreme survival and with reduced risk for cardiovascular disease and Alzheimer's disease. The results confirm the importance of studying truly rare survival to discover those combinations of common and rare variants associated with extreme longevity and longer health span

Presentation1_Evaluation of GENESIS, SAIGE, REGENIE and fastGWA-GLMM for genome-wide association studies of binary traits in correlated data.pdf

Performing a genome-wide association study (GWAS) with a binary phenotype using family data is a challenging task. Using linear mixed effects models is typically unsuitable for binary traits, and numerical approximations of the likelihood function may not work well with rare genetic variants with small counts. Additionally, imbalance in the case-control ratios poses challenges as traditional statistical methods such as the Score test or Wald test perform poorly in this setting. In the last couple of years, several methods have been proposed to better approximate the likelihood function of a mixed effects logistic regression model that uses Saddle Point Approximation (SPA). SPA adjustment has recently been implemented in multiple software, including GENESIS, SAIGE, REGENIE and fastGWA-GLMM: four increasingly popular tools to perform GWAS of binary traits. We compare Score and SPA tests using real family data to evaluate computational efficiency and the agreement of the results. Additionally, we compare various ways to adjust for family relatedness, such as sparse and full genetic relationship matrices (GRM) and polygenic effect estimates. We use the New England Centenarian Study imputed genotype data and the Long Life Family Study whole-genome sequencing data and the binary phenotype of human extreme longevity to compare the agreement of the results and tools’ computational performance. The evaluation suggests that REGENIE might not be a good choice when analyzing correlated data of a small size. fastGWA-GLMM is the most computationally efficient compared to the other three tools, but it appears to be overly conservative when applied to family-based data. GENESIS, SAIGE and fastGWA-GLMM produced similar, although not identical, results, with SPA adjustment performing better than Score tests. Our evaluation also demonstrates the importance of adjusting by full GRM in highly correlated datasets when using GENESIS or SAIGE.</p