Roll out the Red Carpet and They Will Come: Investment Promotion and FDI Inflows

As red tape in host countries and information asymmetries constitute a significant obstacle to investment flows across international borders, an important policy question is: what can aspiring FDI destinations do to reduce such barriers? This study uses newly collected data on 124 countries to examine the effects of investment promotion on inflows of US FDI. We test whether sectors explicitly targeted by investment promotion agencies in their efforts to attract FDI receive more investment in the post-targeting period, relative to the pre-targeting period and non-targeted sectors. The results of our analysis are consistent with investment promotion leading to higher FDI flows to countries in which red tape and information asymmetries are likely to be severe. The data suggest that investment promotion works in developing countries but not in industrialized economies.foreign direct investment, investment promotion, investment incentives, emerging markets, information asymmetries, red tape

Looking Abroad, but Lagging Behind: How the World Technology Frontier Affects South Africa

Industrial sector technology growth must be understood in the context of the international technology development. We study South African manufacturing industries and let the US represent the world technology frontier. The industrial sector linkages between domestic and frontier technology shocks are estimated using panel-data for the period 1970 – 1995. The results show that industrial performance in South Africa is related to the world technology frontier and consequently existing studies of technology overlooking the international context have omitted variable bias. We find that South Africa industries respond to the technology gap to the US, but that the industries are lagging behind. The analysis explains prolonged stagnation in this middle income country and rejects catching up to the frontier.

The Barrier Model of Productivity Growth: South Africa

The barrier model of productivity growth suggests that individual country productivity is related to the world technology frontier disturbed by national barriers. We offer a country study of the barrier model exploiting the dramatic changes in the linkages to the world economy in South Africa. The productivity growth in the manufacturing sector panel for 1970-2003 covers a period of political and economic turbulence and international sanctions. The econometric analysis uses tariffs as measure of barrier and fixed effects estimation to concentrate inference to time series properties. The model shows how productivity growth can be understood as a combination of world frontier growth and the tariff barrier to international spillovers. The estimates establish a long run relationship where domestic productivity follows the world frontier and with change of the barrier affecting transitional growth.Barriers to growth; technology spillover; South Africa; total factor productivity; econometric analysis.

Industrial labor productivities and tariffs in South Africa: Identification based on multilateral liberalization reform

The analysis of the effect of tariffs for labor productivity faces the challenge of tariff policy endogeneity. Tariff policy is designed to promote economic development and the industrial sector tariff structure may reflect characteristics of the industries protected. We seek to identify the effect of tariffs by taking advantage of multilateral tariff liberalization using reductions in industrial sector tariffs in other world regions as instruments for sectoral tariff reductions in South Africa. The data cover 28 manufacturing sectors over the period 1988-2003. We find that tariff reductions have stimulated labor productivity when instrumented by multilateral tariffs. The OLS estimates show downward bias and supports the understanding that the government has given priority to tariff reductions in sectors with slow productivity growth.

Roll out the red carpet and they will come : investment promotion and FDI inflows

As red tape in host countries and information asymmetries constitute a significant obstacle to investment flows across international borders, an important policy question is: what can aspiring FDI destinations do to reduce such barriers? This study uses newly collected data on 124 countries to examine the effects of investment promotion on inflows of US FDI. We test whether sectors explicitly targeted by investment promotion agencies in their efforts to attract FDI receive more investment in the post-targeting period, relative to the pre-targeting period and non-targeted sectors. The results of our analysis are consistent with investment promotion leading to higher FDI flows to countries in which red tape and information asymmetries are likely to be severe. The data suggest that investment promotion works in developing countries but not in industrialized economies

A Touch of Sophistication: FDI and Unit Values of Exports

The debate on trade and growth increasingly focuses on the composition of exports. Exports of more “sophisticated” products appear to be positively correlated with growth, and upgrading the quality of exports is high on the policy agenda of many countries. This study presents evidence suggesting that attracting inflows of FDI offers potential for upgrading a country’s export basket. The empirical analysis relates unit values of exports measured at the 4-digit SITC level to data on sectors treated by investment promotion agencies as priority in their efforts to attract FDI. The sample covers 116 countries over the period 1984-2000. The findings are consistent with a positive effect of FDI on unit values of exports in developing countries. However, such a relationship is less evident in developed countries. These results suggest that FDI can help bridge gaps in production and marketing techniques between developing and high income economies.export quality, unit values, FDI, investment promotion, industrial policy

Developing economies and international investors : do investment promotion agencies bring them together ?

Many countries spend significant resources on investment promotion agencies in the hope of attracting inflows of foreign direct investment. Despite the importance of this question for public policy choices, little is known about the effectiveness of investment promotion efforts. This study uses newly collected data on national investment promotion agencies in 109 countries to examine the effects of investment promotion on foreign direct investment inflows. The empirical analysis follows two approaches. First, it tests whether sectors explicitly targeted by investment promotion agencies receive more foreign direct investment in the post-targeting period relative to the pre-targeting period and non-targeted sectors. Second, it examines whether the existence of an investment promotion agency is correlated with higher foreign direct investment inflows. Results fromboth approaches point to the same conclusion. Investment promotion efforts appear to increase foreign direct investment inflows to developing countries. Moreover, agency characteristics, such as the agency's legal status and reporting structure, affect the effectiveness of investment promotion. There is also evidence of diversion of foreign direct investment due to investment incentives offered by other countries in the same geographic region.Investment and Investment Climate,Foreign Direct Investment,Debt Markets,Emerging Markets,

Is Norway's Bird-in-Hand Stabilization Fund Prudent Enough? Fiscal Reactions to Hydrocarbon Windfalls and Graying Populations

We estimate fiscal reaction functions for non-hydrocarbon tax and public spending shares of national income and for debt management strategies adopted by Norway and compare these with rules that would prevail under the permanent income hypothesis and bird-in-hand rule. We conclude that the fiscal reaction functions adopted by Norway have to some extent been forward-looking when it comes to the rising pension bill, but backward-looking when it comes to hydrocarbon revenues. Still, our results suggest that the imminent costs of a rapidly graying population are not sufficiently taken into account in the current fiscal rules, since Norway is on a trajectory of turning a current net asset-GDP-ratio close to one into a net debt-GDP-ratio of two in 2060. Something needs to give in the holy trinity: either the rules of the Stabilization fund have to be tightened, or civil servant salaries, benefits and pensions will no longer have to be fully indexed to market wages, or the retirement age has to be increased.permanent income hypothesis, oil windfall, sovereign wealth fund, graying population, pension bill, unsustainable public finances

投资促进与FDI流入

诸多因素制约着外商直接投资（FDI）流进发展中国家。其中两个- 纯粹的信息缺乏和程序繁琐 - 很容易通过投资促进得到改善

Boom goes the price : giant resource discoveries and real exchange rate appreciation

We estimate the effect of giant oil and gas discoveries on bilateral real exchange rates. The size and plausibly exogenous timing of such discoveries make them ideal for identifying the effects of an anticipated resource boom on prices. We find that a giant discovery with the value of a country's GDP increases the real exchange rate by 14% within 10 years following the discovery. The appreciation is nearly exclusively driven by an appreciation of the prices of non-tradable goods. We show that these empirical results are qualitatively and quantitatively in line with a calibrated model with forward looking behaviour and Dutch disease dynamics.Publisher PD