Young People’s Differential Vulnerability to Criminogenic Exposure: Bridging The Gap Between People and Place Oriented Approaches in the Study of Crime Causation

The overall purpose of this study is to contribute to bridging the gap between people and place oriented approaches in the study of crime causation. To achieve this we will explore some core hypotheses derived from Situational Action Theory (SAT) about what makes young people crime prone and places criminogenic, and about the interaction between crime propensity and criminogenic exposure predicting crime events. We will also calculate the expected reduction in aggregate levels of crime that will occur as a result of successful interventions targeting crime propensity and criminogenic exposure. To test the hypotheses we will utilise a unique set of space-time budget, small area community survey, land use and interviewer-led questionnaire data from the prospective longitudinal Peterborough Adolescent and Young Adult Development Study (PADS+) and an Artificial Neural Network approach to modelling. The results show that people’s crime propensity (based on their personal morals and abilities to exercise self-control) has the bulk of predictive power, but also that including criminogenic exposure (being unsupervised with peers and engaged in unstructured activities in residential areas of poor collective efficacy or commercial centres) demonstrates a substantial increase in predictive power (in addition to crime propensity). Moreover, the results show that the probability of crime is strongest when a crime prone person takes part in a criminogenic setting and, crucially, that the higher a person’s crime propensity the more vulnerable he or she is to influences of criminogenic exposure. Finally, the findings suggest that a reduction in people’s crime propensity has a much bigger impact on their crime involvement than a reduction in their exposure to criminogenic settings.This research was supported by grants from the UK Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC grant ES/K010646/1); the European Research Council (grants IDCAB 220/104702003 and Momentum 324247) and Riksbankens Jubileumsfond - the Swedish Foundation for Humanities and Social Sciences

Lifelong Learning Pathways: Addressing Participation and Diversity in Higher Education

Tertiary education plays a major role in meeting the economic, social and cultural wellbeing of both individuals and the workforce of the future (OECD, 2011). Increasing participation in tertiary education is vital for the future of all Australians with the emphasis on the provision of increased participation critical. (Gillard, 2012; Bradley, Noonan, Nugent and Scales, 2008). This project reviewed higher education pathways models in the built environment discipline (construction management, quantity surveying, estimating, project management) to ascertain their capacity to improve diversity in the student cohort. This project included three significant objectives: to analyse the efficiency of existing examples of lifelong learning/pathways models in the built environment discipline in improving diversity of student cohort to develop schema to discern and identify elements of these models that contribute to best practice in creating opportunities for student diversity To isolate and disseminate the determinants of best practice pathways models for future use by the built environment discipline and other disciplines. Dissemination of project findings across both the built environment sector and the wider higher education audience was an important objective. The project helped to bring together a network of interested educators in built environment disciplines that were enthusiastic to implement changed practice in relation to pathways models. Industry and accreditation bodies engagement overwhelmed the project leaders, and provided further dissemination and discussion about the opportunities for innovation in built environment pathways

Further experiements on the control of early blight or target spot of potatoes

The effective control of Potato Early Blight or Target Spot by the use of Zineb fungicide (used in the proprietary form Dithane Z.78) has previously been reported in this Journal. It was shown in preliminary spray trials that the foliage blight caused by this disease is very destructive, and by the application of four Dithane sprays yields were increased in the order of 30 per cent., equivalent to approximately four tons per acre. Further experiments have now been conducted and the results indicate that even two applications of Dithane spray may, under conditions of severe blight attack, promote worthwhile higher yields

Plant disease - early blight or target spot of potatoes

Early blight or target spot caused by the fungus Alternaria solani is a widespread disease of potatoes which in Western Australia is most prevalent in crops dug in autumn and early summer. The disease may attack both foliage and tubers, but the tuber rot phase of the disease has hitherto caused most concern to local growers because it causes obvious losses in storage. The less obvious but more serious effects of the foliage blight have generally been overlooked, chiefly because the disease usually develops late in the season when the crops are approaching maturity. However recent spray trials with new fungicides have clearly demonstrated that the destructiveness of the foliage attack has been greatly underestimated, for it may cause considerable reduction in yield

The fibre of a pinch map in a model category

In the category of pointed topological spaces, let F be the homotopy fibre of the pinching map X ∪ CA → X ∪ CA/ X from the mapping cone on a cofibration A → X onto the suspension of A. Gray (Proc Lond Math Soc (3) 26:497–520, 1973) proved that F is weakly homotopy equivalent to the reduced product (X, A)∞. In this paper we prove an analogue of this phenomenon in a model category, under suitable conditions including a cube axiom.Web of Scienc

Exploring the equivalence of two common mixture models for duration data

The beta-geometric (BG) distribution and the Pareto distribution of the second kind (P(II)) are two basic models for duration-time data that share some underlying characteristics (i.e., continuous mixtures of memoryless distributions), but differ in two important respects: first, the BG is the natural model to use when the event of interest occurs in discrete time, while the P(II) is the right choice for a continuous-time setting. Second, the underlying mixing distributions (the beta and gamma for the BG and P(II), respectively, are very different—and often believed to be non-comparable with each other. Despite these and other key differences, the two models are strikingly similar in terms of their fit and predictive performance as well as their parameter estimates. We explore this equivalence, both empirically and analytically, and discuss the implications from both a substantive and methodological standpoint

"How to project customer retention" revisited: the role of duration dependence

Cohort-level retention rates typically increase over time, and the beta-geometric (BG) distribution has proven to be a robust model for capturing and projecting these patterns into the future. According to this model, the phenomenon of increasing cohort-level retention rates is purely due to cross-sectional heterogeneity; an individual customer’s propensity to churn does not change over time. In this paper we present the beta-discrete-Weibull (BdW) distribution as an extension to the BG model, one that allows individual-level churn probabilities to increase or decrease over time. In addition to capturing the phenomenon of increasing cohort-level retention rates, this new model can also accommodate situations in which there is an initial dip in retention rates before they increase (i.e., a U-shaped cohort-level retention curve). A key finding is that even when aggregate retention rates are monotonically increasing, the individual-level churn probabilities are unlikely to be declining over time, as conventional wisdom would suggest. We carefully explore these connections between heterogeneity, duration dependence, and the shape of the retention curve, and draw some managerially relevant conclusions, e.g., that accounting for cross-sectional heterogeneity is more important than accounting for any individual-level dynamics in churn propensities

A linguistic approach to the psychosis continuum: (dis)similarities and (dis)continuities in how clinical and non-clinical voice-hearers talk about their voices

Introduction: “Continuum” approaches to psychosis have generated reports of similarities and differences in voice-hearing in clinical and non-clinical populations at the cohort level, but not typically examined overlap or degrees of difference between groups. / Methods: We used a computer-aided linguistic approach to explore reports of voice-hearing by a clinical group (Early Intervention in Psychosis service-users; N = 40) and a non-clinical group (spiritualists; N = 27). We identify semantic categories of terms statistically overused by one group compared with the other, and by each group compared to a control sample of non-voice-hearing interview data (log likelihood (LL) value 6.63+=p < .01; effect size measure: log ratio 1.0+). We consider whether individual values support a continuum model. / Results: Notwithstanding significant cohort-level differences, there was considerable continuity in language use. Reports of negative affect were prominent in both groups (p < .01, log ratio: 1.12+). Challenges of cognitive control were also evident in both cohorts, with references to “disengagement” accentuated in service-users (p < .01, log ratio: 1.14+). / Conclusion: A corpus linguistic approach to voice-hearing provides new evidence of differences between clinical and non-clinical groups. Variability at the individual level provides substantial evidence of continuity with implications for cognitive mechanisms underlying voice-hearing

Mapping the Asymmetric Thick Disk I. A Search for Triaxiality

A significant asymmetry in the distribution of faint blue stars in the inner Galaxy, Quadrant 1 (l = 20 to 45 degrees) compared to Quadrant 4 was first reported by Larsen & Humphreys (1996). Parker et al (2003, 2004) greatly expanded the survey to determine its spatial extent and shape and the kinematics of the affected stars. This excess in the star counts was subsequently confirmed by Juric et al. (2008) using SDSS data. Possible explanations for the asymmetry include a merger remnant, a triaxial Thick Disk, and a possible interaction with the bar in the Disk. In this paper we describe our program of wide field photometry to map the asymmetry to fainter magnitudes and therefore larger distances. To search for the signature of triaxiality, we extended our survey to higher Galactic longitudes. We find no evidence for an excess of faint blue stars at l > 55 degrees including the faintest magnitude interval. The asymmetry and star count excess in Quadrant 1 is thus not due to a triaxial Thick Disk.Comment: 36 pages, 8 figures. Accepted by Astronomical Journa