The Coordination of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Pakistan: An Empirical Analysis 1980–2011

Fiscal policy concerned with the government’s choice regarding the optimal use of taxation and government spending to control and adjust the aggregate demand in the economy. Monetary policy refers to the central bank’s control regarding the availability of credit in the economy to achieve the objective of price stability and this control can be exerted through money supply and interest rate channel. The ultimate objective of the both policies is to maximise the overall welfare of the society which can be achieved by keeping the inflation rate low and employment at its potential level. There are number of channels in which fiscal policy can impinge on monetary policy. An expansionary fiscal policy leads to an expansionary monetary policy, which may in turn fuel inflation and appreciate the domestic currency and that cause deterioration in the balance of payments. On the other hand if government finances the deficit through the markets (in a non-monetary way) then the fear of crowding out of the private sector arise in the economy. On external side when a country is depending on foreign funding of domestic debt, this results in deterioration in the exchange rate and balance of payment. Another more direct channel of fiscal policy is the impact of indirect taxes on price level. Besides this, perceptions and expectations of the general public about the large and on going budget deficits and resultant borrowings requirements may prompt a lack of confidence in the economic prospects. At the same time when people realise that government is borrowing for its own good, they will conclude that this can lead to higher taxation levels in future and consequently they consume less and save more, that is so called Recardian equivalence

The Long Term Impact of Health on Economic Growth in Pakistan

The paper investigates the impacts of different health indicators on economic growth in Pakistan. Cointegration and Error Correction techniques have been applied on the time series data of Pakistan for the period of 1972-2006. We find that per capita GDP is positively influenced by health indicators in the long run and health indicators cause per capita GDP. However, in short run the health indicators fail to put significant impact on per capita GDP. It reveals that health indicators have a long run impact on economic growth. It also suggests that impact of health is only a long run phenomenon and in the short run there is no significant relationship exists between health variables and economic growth. The major policy implication of the study is that if we desire high levels of per capita income, we can achieve it by increasing and improving stock of health human capital, especially when current stocks are at lower end. Moreover, study also points out a rather diminutive role of public health expenditure in determining the per capita GDP.Health Human Capital; Economic Growth; Cointegration, Error Correction

The Impact of Tax Policies on Economic Growth: Evidence from South-Asian Economies.

The public policy instruments, such as tax rate changes, have different implications in exogenous (neoclassical) and endogenous growth theories. The neoclassical theory predicts that changes in a country’s tax structure should have only transitory impact on its long-run economic growth while endogenous growth theory argues that such changes may have an effect impact on the growth. This study tests whether tax policies conducted by Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka have transitory or permanent effect on their economic growth. The study finds transitory and negative effect of tax rate on the growth only for short-term but has no effect in the long-term. The tax rates in all these countries are low as compared to developed countries. Due to low tax rates these countries heavily depend on bond financing and foreign debt. In view of the findings of this study most important policy implication of the study is that to finance the budget and most of their revenue requirements should be financed with tax increases and if necessary bond financing should be contingent providing a guard against transitory shocks to the budget. JEL classification: H10, E62, O40 Keywords: Neoclassical Growth; Endogenous Growth; Fiscal Policy; Tax Smoothin

The Long Term Impact of Health on Economic Growth in Pakistan

Human capital plays pivotal role for sustainable economic Growth. As different growth theories suggest the role of human capital as a significant for growth process. The concept of human capital in economic literature defined broadly by including education, health, training, migration, and other investments that enhance an individual’s productivity. However, the growth economists that have incorporated human capital in the growth studies, paid greater attention on analysing the impact of education on economic growth, while ignoring the role of health human capital. It is only in very recent times that studies have started looking at health and tried to estimate the relationship between health status and economic growth. There exists a two-way relationship between improved health and economic growth. Health and other forms of human and physical capital increases the per capita GDP by increasing productivity of existing resources coupled with resource accumulation and technical change. Furthermore, some part of this increased income is spent on investment in human capital, which results in further per capita growth. According to Fogel (1994), approximately one third of GDP of Britain between 1790 and 1980 is the outcome of improvements in health especially improvement in nutrition, public health, and medical care facilities and these improved health facilities should be considered as labour enhancing technical change

Unconditional Cash Transfers and Women Empowerment: The Case of Benazir Income Support Programme (BISP) in Pakistan

This study has explored the welfare impact of Benazir Income Support Program’s (BISP) unconditional cash transfers on women empowerment. The program was initiated in 2011 by the government of Pakistan. The impact has been computed by using two follow up rounds i.e, 2011 & 2016 where baseline was carried out in 2011 and follow-up round was carried out in 2016. Regression Discontinuity Design approach was used to measure casual effects of the BISP cash transfers on women empowerment by selecting target and control groups based on proxy means test. The overtime impact have been estimated by employing Difference in Difference (DiD) model on panel households from 2011-2016. The study observed that BISP led to improve socio-economic wellbeing of the beneficiary women. It has brought improvement in women mobility and women participation in voting. The important contribution is an improvement in the aspect of socio-economic and political empowerment and women mobility across time and overtime. This showed continues support for longer period brought desired results

Assessing farmer’s Pesticide Safety Knowledge in cotton growing area of Punjab, Pakistan

A pesticide safety knowledge test was developed to assess farmer’s knowledge related to pesticide safety. Yes-No (true-false) type 25 item, test, was constructed and used in a sample of 162 pesticide applicator in two districts of southern Punjab Pakistan. The overall mean score was 17.2(72%). More educated and adult respondents performed better than younger and illiterate. Similarly large land holder scored higher than small landholders, indicating their more access to information and extension. Overall ten Items received less than 50% correct response. The result shows that farmers have reasonably good knowledge but it still has to see, to what extent that knowledge is being used practically. It could possibly be the future research topic.Health cost, Environmental cost, Pesticide knowledge, pesticide safety

Multidimensional Child Poverty Measurement and its Mapping: Case of Balochistan, Pakistan

The progress of Pakistan remained poor in human development indicators, especially health, education, stunting, living standard, food security, malnutrition and unemployment. It is a very alarming condition for the Pakistan future that 44 percent of children under five years old are facing stunting. It is notable that poverty levels in Balochistan province of Pakistan are comparatively high. This study uses Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (2010) data of Balochistan for estimation of multidimensional child poverty and deprivation in multiple dimensions using Multiple Overlapping Deprivation Analysis (MODA). The results show that 71% children under five years of age are deprived in nutrition, health, child development, housing and sanitation. A significant difference exists between rural (75%) and urban (57%) multidimensional children deprivation. The study results call for more investment in child poverty reduction programs by provencial and central governments. The focus should be on provision of economic opportunities, improvement in health facilities, strict action for compulsory education and actions for better nourishment to reduce child poverty

Multidimensional Child Poverty Measurement and its Mapping: Case of Balochistan, Pakistan

The progress of Pakistan remained poor in human development indicators, especially health, education, stunting, living standard, food security, malnutrition and unemployment. It is a very alarming condition for the Pakistan future that 44 percent of children under five years old are facing stunting. It is notable that poverty levels in Balochistan province of Pakistan are comparatively high. This study uses Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (2010) data of Balochistan for estimation of multidimensional child poverty and deprivation in multiple dimensions using Multiple Overlapping Deprivation Analysis (MODA). The results show that 71% children under five years of age are deprived in nutrition, health, child development, housing and sanitation. A significant difference exists between rural (75%) and urban (57%) multidimensional children deprivation. The study results call for more investment in child poverty reduction programs by provencial and central governments. The focus should be on provision of economic opportunities, improvement in health facilities, strict action for compulsory education and actions for better nourishment to reduce child poverty

Estimating the Impact of Technical Barriers to Trade in WTO Regime: The Case of Pakistan

Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) forwarded by World Trade Organisation (WTO) has obstructed world trade patterns; generally, it is conceptualized as non-tariff barrier which impedes trade. In this study, impact of TBT on imports of Pakistan has been estimated. This paper explores how TBT affects import of Pakistan from its trade partner using PPML estimation method to handle zero trade flows and overdispersion of data of Pakistan’s import, based on gravity model. The findings depict that GDP of Pakistan and partners, exchange rate, tariff, distance, and contiguity are vital factors; along with TBT cases initiated by Pakistan have also impacted import from WTO members. The results suggest that Pakistan-initiated TBT and tariff have experienced lower import volume, hence they can be used to administer its ever-increasing trade deficit. The study also presents comparative analysis of TBT and tariff impacts on imports from high income, upper middle, lower middle, and lower income countries as classified by the World Bank

Estimating the Socio-Economic Factors of Food Insecurity in Pakistan:A Regional Level Analysis

Food insecurity is the primary concern of developing countries as food deficiencies contribute to stunting and mortality in children below the age of five. This study evaluates the impact of households’ socioeconomic factors on food insecurity at national and regional level, using the HIES 2015-16 data for Pakistan. The logistic regression results depict that 38% of the households at national level experienced calorie deficiency with 40.5% in rural and 36.7% in urban areas. Households with a caloric intake deficiency in the provinces of Balochistan and Sindh are relatively higher. The socioeconomic analysis shows that age and gender (male) of the household head are positively related to food insecurity, whereas the education has a negative effect. The food insecurity in female-headed households is less likely than in male-headed households. The household size and overcrowding ratio (persons per room) in our estimated model have positive signs. Agriculture related indicators have inverse relationship with food insecurity. Poverty is also positively linked to food insecurity. In our study, safe drinking water and fuel for cooking have negative effects on food insecurity. Sanitation facilities, including toilets, are also negatively related. Present study suggests that the relationship between food insecurity and socioeconomic development should be re-examined by policy makers and government agencies. The elementary requirements of life, such as safe drinking water, fuel for cooking and sanitation, are crucial to achieving zero hunger policies. In addition, improvements in agricultural segments are vital to the rural economy and social development. The reduction in food insecurity is therefore closely related to improving farming segments, including livestock and poultry