The Confounding Effect of Population Structure on Bayesian Skyline Plot Inferences of Demographic History

Many coalescent-based methods aiming to infer the demographic history of populations assume a single, isolated and panmictic population (i.e. a Wright-Fisher model). While this assumption may be reasonable under many conditions, several recent studies have shown that the results can be misleading when it is violated. Among the most widely applied demographic inference methods are Bayesian skyline plots (BSPs), which are used across a range of biological fields. Violations of the panmixia assumption are to be expected in many biological systems, but the consequences for skyline plot inferences have so far not been addressed and quantified. We simulated DNA sequence data under a variety of scenarios involving structured populations with variable levels of gene flow and analysed them using BSPs as implemented in the software package BEAST. Results revealed that BSPs can show false signals of population decline under biologically plausible combinations of population structure and sampling strategy, suggesting that the interpretation of several previous studies may need to be re-evaluated. We found that a balanced sampling strategy whereby samples are distributed on several populations provides the best scheme for inferring demographic change over a typical time scale. Analyses of data from a structured African buffalo population demonstrate how BSP results can be strengthened by simulations. We recommend that sample selection should be carefully considered in relation to population structure previous to BSP analyses, and that alternative scenarios should be evaluated when interpreting signals of population size change.Danish Council for Independent Research, Laboratoire d’Excellence (LABEX) grant: (ANR-10-LABX-41)

Characterisation of recent foot-and-mouth disease viruses from African buffalo ( <i>Syncerus caffer</i> ) and cattle in Kenya is consistent with independent virus populations

BACKGROUND: Understanding the epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), including roles played by different hosts, is essential for improving disease control. The African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) is a reservoir for the SAT serotypes of FMD virus (FMDV). Large buffalo populations commonly intermingle with livestock in Kenya, yet earlier studies have focused on FMD in the domestic livestock, hence the contribution of buffalo to disease in livestock is largely unknown. This study analysed 47 epithelia collected from FMD outbreaks in Kenyan cattle between 2008 and 2012, and 102 probang and serum samples collected from buffalo in three different Kenyan ecosystems; Maasai-Mara (MME) (n = 40), Tsavo (TSE) (n = 33), and Meru (ME) (n = 29). RESULTS: Antibodies against FMDV non-structural proteins were found in 65 of 102 (64%) sera from buffalo with 44/102 and 53/102 also having neutralising antibodies directed against FMDV SAT 1 and SAT 2, respectively. FMDV RNA was detected in 42% of the buffalo probang samples by RT-qPCR (Cycle Threshold (Ct) ≤32). Two buffalo probang samples were positive by VI and were identified as FMDV SAT 1 and SAT 2 by Ag-ELISA, while the latter assay detected serotypes O (1), A (20), SAT 1 (7) and SAT 2 (19) in the 47 cattle epithelia. VP1 coding sequences were generated for two buffalo and 21 cattle samples. Phylogenetic analyses revealed SAT 1 and SAT 2 virus lineages within buffalo that were distinct from those detected in cattle. CONCLUSIONS: We found that FMDV serotypes O, A, SAT 1 and SAT 2 were circulating among cattle in Kenya and cause disease, but only SAT 1 and SAT 2 viruses were successfully isolated from clinically normal buffalo. The buffalo isolates were genetically distinct from isolates obtained from cattle. Control efforts should focus primarily on reducing FMDV circulation among livestock and limiting interaction with buffalo. Comprehensive studies incorporating additional buffalo viruses are recommended. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12917-015-0333-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Unrecognized circulation of SAT 1 foot-and-mouth disease virus in cattle herds around Queen Elizabeth National Park in Uganda

BACKGROUND: Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in Uganda in spite of the control measures used. Various aspects of the maintenance and circulation of FMD viruses (FMDV) in Uganda are not well understood; these include the role of the African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) as a reservoir for FMDV. To better understand the epidemiology of FMD at the livestock-wildlife-interface, samples were collected from young, unvaccinated cattle from 24 pastoral herds that closely interact with wildlife around Queen Elizabeth National Park in Uganda, and analysed for evidence of FMDV infection. RESULTS: In total, 37 (15 %) of 247 serum samples had detectable antibodies against FMDV non-structural proteins (NSPs) using a pan-serotypic assay. Within these 37 sera, antibody titres ≥ 80 against the structural proteins of serotypes O, SAT 1, SAT 2 and SAT 3 were detected by ELISA in 5, 7, 4 and 3 samples, respectively, while neutralizing antibodies were only detected against serotype O in 3 samples. Two FMDV isolates, with identical VP1 coding sequences, were obtained from probang samples from clinically healthy calves from the same herd and are serotype SAT 1 (topotype IV (EA-I)). Based on the VP1 coding sequences, these viruses are distinct from previous cattle and buffalo SAT 1 FMDV isolates obtained from the same area (19–30 % nucleotide difference) and from the vaccine strain (TAN/155/71) used within Uganda (26 % nucleotide difference). Eight herds had only one or a few animals with antibodies against FMDV NSPs while six herds had more substantial evidence of prior infection with FMDV. There was no evidence for exposure to FMDV in the other ten herds. CONCLUSIONS: The two identical SAT 1 FMDV VP1 sequences are distinct from former buffalo and cattle isolates from the same area, thus, transmission between buffalo and cattle was not demonstrated. These new SAT 1 FMDV isolates differed significantly from the vaccine strain used to control Ugandan FMD outbreaks, indicating a need for vaccine matching studies. Only six herds had clear serological evidence for exposure to O and SAT 1 FMDV. Scattered presence of antibodies against FMDV in other herds may be due to the occasional introduction of animals to the area or maternal antibodies from past infection and/or vaccination. The evidence for asymptomatic FMDV infection has implications for disease control strategies in the area since this obstructs early disease detection that is based on clinical signs in FMDV infected animals. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12917-015-0616-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Time clustered sampling can inflate the inferred substitution rate in foot-and-mouth disease virus analyses

With the emergence of analytical software for the inference of viral evolution, a number of studies have focused on estimating important parameters such as the substitution rate and the time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) for rapidly evolving viruses. Coupled with an increasing abundance of sequence data sampled under widely different schemes, an effort to keep results consistent and comparable is needed. This study emphasizes commonly disregarded problems in the inference of evolutionary rates in viral sequence data when sampling is unevenly distributed on a temporal scale through a study of the foot-and-mouth (FMD) disease virus serotypes SAT 1 and SAT 2. Our study shows that clustered temporal sampling in phylogenetic analyses of FMD viruses will strongly bias the inferences of substitution rates and tMRCA because the inferred rates in such data sets reflect a rate closer to the mutation rate rather than the substitution rate. Estimating evolutionary parameters from viral sequences should be performed with due consideration of the differences in short-term and longer-term evolutionary processes occurring within sets of temporally sampled viruses, and studies should carefully consider how samples are combined