Risk Sharing and Efficiency Implications of Progressive Pension Arrangements

The present paper aims to quantify the welfare effects of progressive pension arrangements in Germany. Starting from a purely contribution-related benefit system, we introduce basic allowances for contributions and a flat benefit fraction. Since our overlapping-generations model takes into account variable labor supply, borrowing constraints as well as stochastic income risk, we can compare the labor supply, the liquidity, and the insurance effects of the policy reform. Our simulations indicate that for a realistic parameter combination an increase in pension progressivity would yield an aggregate efficiency gain of more than 2 percent of resources. However, such a reform would not be implemented because it would not find political support of the currently living generations.pension reform, idiosyncratic labor income uncertainty

Private Retirement Savings in Germany: The Structure of Tax Incentives and Annuitization

The present paper studies the growth, welfare and efficiency consequences of the recent introduction of tax-favored retirement accounts in Germany in a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic lifespan and labor income uncertainty. We focus on the implicit differential taxation of specific savings motives, the mandatory annuitization of benefits and the impact of special provisions for low-income households. The simulations indicate that the reform improves overall economic efficiency by about 0.6 percent of aggregate resources, but welfare decreases significantly for future generations. Finally, we show that special provisions could be very effective in raising the participation of low-income households despite their low budgetary cost.individual retirement accounts, annuities, stochastic general equilibrium

Pension Funding and Individual Accounts in Economies with Life-cyclers and Myopes

The present paper studies the growth and efficiency consequences of pension funding with individual retirement accounts in a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic lifespan and labor income uncertainty. We distinguish between economies with rational and hyperbolic consumers and compare the consequences of voluntary and mandatory retirement plans. Three major findings are derived in our study: First, we quantify the commitment effect of social security for myopic individuals by roughly 1 percent of aggregate resources. It is possible to recapture this commitment technology in IRAs, if those are annuitized. Second, despite the fact that our consumers have an operative bequest motive, the welfare gain from the (implicit) longevity insurance of the pension system is significant and amounts to roughly 0.5 percent of aggregate resources. However, mandatory annuitization reduces unintended bequests so that future generations are significantly hurt. Finally, our results highlight the importance of liquidity effects for social security analysis. These efficiency gains are only attainable if accounts are voluntary and not mandatory.individual retirement accounts, annuities, stochastic general equilibrium, hyperbolic consumers

Fertility, Female Labor Supply, and Family Policy

The present paper develops a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations and endogenous fertility in order to analyze the interaction between public policy and household labor supply and fertility decisions. The model's benchmark equilibrium reflects the current family policy as well as the differential fertility pattern of educational groups in Germany. Then we simulate alternative reforms of child benefits and family taxation that increase the long-run fertility and growth rate of the economy. Our simulations indicate two central results: First, although households are typically hurt by the first-order effects of family policy, it is possible to generate long-run welfare gains due to positive second-order effects from induced changes in the population structure. Second, specific family policies could be designed that yield a joint increase of the fertility rate and female employment rate as observed in cross-country studies.stochastic fertility, general equilibrium life cycle model

Fertility, Female Labor Supply, and Family Policy

The present paper develops a general equilibrium model with overlapping generations and endogenous fertility in order to analyze the interaction between public policy and household labor supply and fertility decisions. The model's benchmark equilibrium reflects the current family policy consisting of joint taxation of married couples, monetary transfers and in-kind benefits which reduce the time cost of children. Then we simulate alternative reforms of the tax and the child benefit system and analyze the long-run impact on fertility and female labor supply. Our simulations indicate three central results: First, policies which simply increase the family budget either via higher transfers (direct or in-kind) or via family splitting increase fertility but reduce female employment. Second, increasing tax revenues due to the introduction of individual taxation would increase female employment but reduce fertility. Third, revenue neutral policies such as a reform of the benefit structure or a move towards individual taxation combined with an increase in in-kind benefits may achieve both goals and therefore yield significant welfare gains.stochastic fertility, general equilibrium life cycle model

Private Retirement Savings in Germany: The Structure of Tax Incentives and Annuitization

The present paper studies the growth, welfare and efficiency consequences of the recent introduction of tax-favored retirement accounts in Germany in a general equilibrium overlapping generations model with idiosyncratic lifespan and labor income uncertainty. We focus on the implicit differential taxation of specific savings motives, the mandatory annuitization of benefits and the impact of special provisions for low-income households. The simulations indicate that the reform improves overall economic efficiency by about 0.6 percent of aggregate resources, but welfare decreases significantly for future generations. Finally, we show that special provisions could be very effective in raising the participation of low-income households despite their low budgetary cost.Individual retirement accounts, annuities, stochastic general equilibrium

Tax-Favored Retirement Accounts: Are they Efficient in Increasing Savings and Growth?

The present paper aims to quantify the macroeconomic and welfare effects of taxfavored retirement accounts. Starting from an equilibrium without saving incentives, we introduce such accounts and compute the new transition path and the resulting long-run equilibrium. Since our overlapping-generations model comprises a detailed progressive tax system, borrowing constraints as well as stochastic income risk, we can compare macroeconomic and liquidity effects, tax distortions and the insurance properties of the policy reform. Our simulations indicate that tax-favored retirement accounts as implemented in many OECD countries will have a significant impact on capital accumulation and wage growth in the long run, but only yield insignificant aggregate efficiency changes. While elderly generations are typically hurt by such a reform, young and future generations benefit. Finally, with respect to the intragenerational redistribution, a subsidy system that includes direct bonus payments might be preferred to a system with pure tax deductions.Savings incentives, stochastic general equilibrium model

Fertility, Mortality, and the Developed World’s Demographic Transition

This study uses Fehr, Jokisch, and Kotlikoff’s (2004a) dynamic general equilibrium model to analyze the effects of changes in fertility and mortality on the developed world’s demographic transition. The model features three regions – the U.S., Japan, and the EU-15 – and incorporates age- and time-specific fertility and mortality rates, detailed fiscal institutions, and international capital mobility, subject to adjustment costs. Our simulations confirm the offsetting fiscal and economic consequences of both higher fertility and lower mortality rates. The simulations indicate very minor effects on the developed world’s rather bleak baseline transition path from either major increases in fertility rates or major reductions in mortality rates.demographic transition, computable general equilibrium model (CGE), fertility, mortality

A Simulation Model for the Demographic Transition in Germany : Data Requirements, Model Structure and Calibration

All countries in the European Union stand at the fore of a phenomenal demographic transition. Especially Germany will realize an enormous aging of its population. The reasons for this development are twofold: On the one hand, the number of elderly will more than double over the coming decades. On the other hand, since fertility rates are projected to stay at a low level, the number of workers available to pay the elderly their government-guaranteed pension and health care benefits will decline. Due to very generous social security systems this aging process is expected to put enormous pressure on future government expenses. To address the consequences of population aging in Germany, this paper develops a dynamic, intergenerational demographic life-cycle model. The model features immigration, age-specific fertility, life span extension and life span uncertainty. Cohorts within the model differ in their human capital profiles and leave bequests arising from incomplete annuitization. We also incorporate the German pension, health care and long-term care system. After introducing the theoretical model, we simulate the transition path including reforms of the pension system imposed by the so called "Riester" reform and keeping current immigration constant. The results are presented for the case of a closed and a small open economy. --Demographic transition,overlapping generations (OLG),computable general equilibrium models (CGE)

Social Security with Rational and Hyperbolic Consumers

The present paper studies the role of social security in an economy populated by overlapping generations of individuals that have time-consistent or time-inconsistent preferences, face mortality and individual income risk, borrowing constraints as well as progressive income taxes. Our simulations start from an artificial equilibrium where social security is completely neutral. Next we introduce successively alternative deviations from neutrality in order to isolate the various economic effects of social security. The latter are mainly the insurance provision against mortality and income risk, the negative liquidity effects for young households and the provision of a commitment technology for present-biased hyperbolic consumers. Our simulations indicate that the positive effects of social security dominate the negative ones for a wide range of parameter combinations. For our central parametrization social security induces an overall welfare gain which amounts to roughly 1.5 percent of aggregate resources in the hyperbolic model and a welfare loss of about 0.5 percent of resources in the model with rational consumers.social security, stochastic general equilibrium, hyperbolic consumers