Loss of aboveground forest biomass and landscape biomass variability in Missouri, US

Disturbance regimes and forests have changed over time in the eastern United States. We examined effects of historical disturbance (circa 1813 to 1850) compared to current disturbance (circa 2004 to 2008) on aboveground, live tree biomass (for trees with diameters \u3e/= 13 cm) and landscape variation of biomass in forests of the Ozarks and Plains landscapes in Missouri, USA. We simulated 10,000 one-hectare plots using random diameters generated from parameters of diameter distributions limited to diameters \u3e/= 13 cm and random densities generated from density estimates. Area-weighted mean biomass density (Mg/ha) for historical forests averaged 116 Mg/ha, ranging from 54 Mg/ha to 357 Mg/ha by small scale ecological subsections within Missouri landscapes. Area-weighted mean biomass density for current forests averaged 82 Mg/ha, ranging from 66 Mg/ha to 144 Mg/ha by ecological subsection for currently forested land. Biomass density of current forest was greater than historical biomass density for only 2 of 23 ecological subsections. Current carbon sequestration of 292 TgC on 7 million ha of forested land is less than half of the estimated historical total carbon sequestration of 693 TgC on 12 million ha. Cumulative tree cutting disturbances over time have produced forests that have less aboveground tree biomass and are uniform in biomass compared to estimates of historical biomass, which varied across Missouri landscapes. With continued relatively low rates of forest disturbance, current biomass per ha will likely increase to historical levels as the most competitive trees become larger in size and mean number of trees per ha decreases due to competition and self-thinning. Restoration of large diameter structure and forested extent of upland woodlands and floodplain forests could fulfill multiple conservation objectives, including carbon sequestration

Historical forests of the Black Hills, South Dakota, USA, determined using General Land Office surveys

Forests in the western United States generally have increased in tree density since Euro-American settlement, particularly through increases in fire-sensitive species, such as spruces, firs, and junipers. Like most areas, the Black Hills region in western South Dakota and eastern Wyoming was logged for forest products and underwent agricultural conversion before historical forests were documented. To supplement historical reconstructions and accounts, we compared tree composition and densities (diameters ≥12.7 cm at 1.37 m above ground height) from historical General Land Office (GLO) records (years 1878 to 1915) and current Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) tree surveys (years 2011 to 2016) in the Black Hills Highlands of South Dakota. For composition, ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa P. Lawson & C. Lawson) decreased from 95% to 86% of all trees, with a consequent increase specifically of white spruce (Picea glauca (Moench) Voss) from 1.5% to 6.7% of all trees. Ponderosa pine currently is smaller in mean diameter by 7.4 cm, while white spruce is larger in mean diameter by 2.4 cm than historically. When the 35% of historical survey points without recorded trees were excluded, historical tree densities indicated an overall forested structure of savannas and open woodlands with tree densities ranging from 66 trees ha–1 to 162 trees ha–1. However, historical forests of the Black Hills incorporated dense stands. Tree densities have increased two- to more than four-fold, to 311 trees ha–1 currently. These comparisons provide another source of information, paralleling changes documented in surface fire-dependent pine and oak forests throughout the United States, of transitions in forest composition and structure since Euro-American settlement

Loss of aboveground forest biomass and landscape biomass variability in Missouri, US

Disturbance regimes and forests have changed over time in the eastern United States. We examined effects of historical disturbance (circa 1813 to 1850) compared to current disturbance (circa 2004 to 2008) on aboveground, live tree biomass (for trees with diameters \u3e/= 13 cm) and landscape variation of biomass in forests of the Ozarks and Plains landscapes in Missouri, USA. We simulated 10,000 one-hectare plots using random diameters generated from parameters of diameter distributions limited to diameters \u3e/= 13 cm and random densities generated from density estimates. Area-weighted mean biomass density (Mg/ha) for historical forests averaged 116 Mg/ha, ranging from 54 Mg/ha to 357 Mg/ha by small scale ecological subsections within Missouri landscapes. Area-weighted mean biomass density for current forests averaged 82 Mg/ha, ranging from 66 Mg/ha to 144 Mg/ha by ecological subsection for currently forested land. Biomass density of current forest was greater than historical biomass density for only 2 of 23 ecological subsections. Current carbon sequestration of 292 TgC on 7 million ha of forested land is less than half of the estimated historical total carbon sequestration of 693 TgC on 12 million ha. Cumulative tree cutting disturbances over time have produced forests that have less aboveground tree biomass and are uniform in biomass compared to estimates of historical biomass, which varied across Missouri landscapes. With continued relatively low rates of forest disturbance, current biomass per ha will likely increase to historical levels as the most competitive trees become larger in size and mean number of trees per ha decreases due to competition and self-thinning. Restoration of large diameter structure and forested extent of upland woodlands and floodplain forests could fulfill multiple conservation objectives, including carbon sequestration

Loss of aboveground forest biomass and landscape biomass variability in Missouri, US

Disturbance regimes and forests have changed over time in the eastern United States. We examined effects of historical disturbance (circa 1813 to 1850) compared to current disturbance (circa 2004 to 2008) on aboveground, live tree biomass (for trees with diameters \u3e/= 13 cm) and landscape variation of biomass in forests of the Ozarks and Plains landscapes in Missouri, USA. We simulated 10,000 one-hectare plots using random diameters generated from parameters of diameter distributions limited to diameters \u3e/= 13 cm and random densities generated from density estimates. Area-weighted mean biomass density (Mg/ha) for historical forests averaged 116 Mg/ha, ranging from 54 Mg/ha to 357 Mg/ha by small scale ecological subsections within Missouri landscapes. Area-weighted mean biomass density for current forests averaged 82 Mg/ha, ranging from 66 Mg/ha to 144 Mg/ha by ecological subsection for currently forested land. Biomass density of current forest was greater than historical biomass density for only 2 of 23 ecological subsections. Current carbon sequestration of 292 TgC on 7 million ha of forested land is less than half of the estimated historical total carbon sequestration of 693 TgC on 12 million ha. Cumulative tree cutting disturbances over time have produced forests that have less aboveground tree biomass and are uniform in biomass compared to estimates of historical biomass, which varied across Missouri landscapes. With continued relatively low rates of forest disturbance, current biomass per ha will likely increase to historical levels as the most competitive trees become larger in size and mean number of trees per ha decreases due to competition and self-thinning. Restoration of large diameter structure and forested extent of upland woodlands and floodplain forests could fulfill multiple conservation objectives, including carbon sequestration

Reviewing Fire, Climate, Deer, and Foundation Species as Drivers of Historically Open Oak and Pine Forests and Transition to Closed Forests

Historically open oak and pine savannas and woodlands have transitioned to closed forests comprised of increased numbers of tree species throughout the eastern United States. We reviewed evidence for and against a suite of previously postulated drivers of forest transition focused on (1) change in fire regimes, (2) increased precipitation, (3) increased white-tailed deer densities, and (4) loss of American chestnut. We found that fire and fire exclusion provide a parsimonious mechanism for historical dominance by open forests of fire-tolerant oak and/or pine species and subsequent transition to closed forests with fire-sensitive tree species that fill the vertical profile. Based on statistical tests, increased precipitation during the past century was within historical ranges and thus fails to provide an explanation for forest change; additionally, precipitation variability is incongruent with tree traits (i.e., both drought-tolerant and drought-intolerant species have increased and decreased) and patterns of tree establishment. Similarly, current deer densities fail to provide a statistical relationship to explain tree densities at regional scales, species trends are unrelated to deer browse preferences, and both historically open forests and contemporary closed forests contained high deer densities. Functional extinction of the American chestnut had localized impacts but chestnut was not abundant compared to oak or widespread enough in distribution to match forest transitions throughout the eastern United States. Although Euro-American settlement affected many processes, not all changes were consistent enough to cause transitions in forest composition and structure that generally trailed westward expansion by Euro-American settlers. Evidence about these drivers continues to mount and we recognize the need for further research and continual re-evaluation of drivers of historical forests and forest change due to importance for understanding and management of these ecosystems

Importance of succession, harvest, and climate change in determining future composition in U.S. Central Hardwood Forests

Most temperate forests in U.S. are recovering from heavy exploitation and are in intermediate successional stages where partial tree harvest is the primary disturbance. Changes in regional forest composition in response to climate change are often predicted for plant functional types using biophysical process models. These models usually simplify the simulation of succession and harvest and may not consider important species-specific demographic processes driving forests changes. We determined the relative importance of succession, harvest, and climate change to forest composition changes in a 125-million ha area of the Central Hardwood Forest Region of U.S. We used a forest landscape modeling approach to project changes in density and basal area of 23 tree species due to succession, harvest, and four climate scenarios from 2000 to 2300. On average, succession, harvest, and climate change explained 78, 17, and 1% of the variation in species importance values (IV) at 2050, respectively, but their contribution changed to 46, 26, and 20% by 2300. Climate change led to substantial increases in the importance of red maple and southern species (e.g., yellow-poplar) and decreases in northern species (e.g., sugar maple) and most of widely distributed species (e.g., white oak). Harvest interacted with climate change and accelerated changes in some species (e.g., increasing southern red oak and decreasing American beech) while ameliorated the changes for others (e.g., increasing red maple and decreasing white ash). Succession was the primary driver of forest composition change over the next 300 years. The effects of harvest on composition were more important than climate change in the short term but climate change became more important than harvest in the long term. Our results show that it is important to model species-specific responses when predicting changes in forest composition and structure in response to succession, harvest, and climate change

Importance of succession, harvest, and climate change in determining future composition in U.S. Central Hardwood Forests

Most temperate forests in U.S. are recovering from heavy exploitation and are in intermediate successional stages where partial tree harvest is the primary disturbance. Changes in regional forest composition in response to climate change are often predicted for plant functional types using biophysical process models. These models usually simplify the simulation of succession and harvest and may not consider important species-specific demographic processes driving forests changes. We determined the relative importance of succession, harvest, and climate change to forest composition changes in a 125-million ha area of the Central Hardwood Forest Region of U.S. We used a forest landscape modeling approach to project changes in density and basal area of 23 tree species due to succession, harvest, and four climate scenarios from 2000 to 2300. On average, succession, harvest, and climate change explained 78, 17, and 1% of the variation in species importance values (IV) at 2050, respectively, but their contribution changed to 46, 26, and 20% by 2300. Climate change led to substantial increases in the importance of red maple and southern species (e.g., yellow-poplar) and decreases in northern species (e.g., sugar maple) and most of widely distributed species (e.g., white oak). Harvest interacted with climate change and accelerated changes in some species (e.g., increasing southern red oak and decreasing American beech) while ameliorated the changes for others (e.g., increasing red maple and decreasing white ash). Succession was the primary driver of forest composition change over the next 300 years. The effects of harvest on composition were more important than climate change in the short term but climate change became more important than harvest in the long term. Our results show that it is important to model species-specific responses when predicting changes in forest composition and structure in response to succession, harvest, and climate change

Climate Envelopes Do Not Reflect Tree Dynamics after Euro-American Settlement in Eastern North America

Tree distributions and densities have been dynamic since Euro-American settlement in North America. Historically dominant fire-tolerant tree species have decreased, and fire-sensitive, successional species have increased, and tree species have expended westward since the 1800s into the central Great Plains grasslands. Divergent compositional trajectories and the westward expansion of tree species may be explained by climate change. To establish patterns expected by climate change, I predicted climate envelopes in eastern North America during 7 intervals, from the 1500s to 1961–1990, of 16 wide-ranging fire-tolerant and fire-sensitive species. The climate envelopes demonstrated that suitable climate area has remained relatively stable for all species: compared with the 1500s, areal extents during the 1900s increased 104% for fire-sensitive species and 106% for fire-tolerant species. Additionally, a pattern of northeastern shifts (i.e., following the North American land mass) resulted from climate change. Climate envelopes demonstrated northeastern shifts with slight expansion for all species, which did not accord with realized dynamics of westward tree expansion or increases in fire-sensitive species. In accordance with other lines of evidence, land use disturbance change, incorporating fire exclusion, likely has caused the divergent trajectories of fire-tolerant and fire-sensitive species and westward expansion into the Great Plains grasslands

Westward Expansion by Juniperus virginiana of the Eastern United States and Intersection with Western Juniperus Species in a Novel Assemblage

Eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana L.) is increasing in density in the eastern United States and expanding in range to the west, while western Juniperus species also are increasing and expanding, creating the potential for a novel assemblage. I estimated range expansion and intersection by comparing recent USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis surveys (mean year = 2009) to the oldest available surveys (mean year = 1981), with adjustments for sampling changes, and predicted climate envelopes during the following year ranges: 1500–1599, 1800–1849, 1850–1899, 1900–1949, and 1960–1989. During approximately 28 years, eastern redcedar range expanded by about 54 million ha (based on ≥0.5% of total stems ≥12.7 cm in diameter in ecological subsections). Combined range of western species of juniper did not expand. Range intersection of eastern redcedar and western Juniperus species totaled 200,000 km2 and increased by 31,600 km2 over time, representing a novel assemblage of eastern and western species. Predicted ranges during the other time intervals were 94% to 98% of predicted area during 1960–1989, suggesting major climate conditions have been suitable for centuries. The southern western Juniperus species and Rocky Mountain juniper (Juniperus scopulorum Sarg.) have the greatest potential for intersection with eastern redcedar, whereas eastern redcedar may have concluded westward expansion

Compounded Heat and Fire Risk for Future U.S. Populations

Climate change is increasing the risk of extreme events, resulting in social and economic challenges. I examined recent past (1971–2000), current and near future (2010–2039), and future (2040–2069) fire and heat hazard combined with population growth by different regions and residential densities (i.e., exurban low and high densities, suburban, and urban low and high densities). Regional values for extreme fire weather days varied greatly. Temperature and number of extreme fire weather days increased over time for all residential density categories, with the greatest increases in the exurban low-density category. The urban high-density category was about 0.8 to 1 °C cooler than the urban low-density category. The areas of the urban and suburban density categories increased relative to the exurban low-density category. Holding climate change constant at 1970–2000 resulted in a temperature increase of 0.4 to 0.8 °C by 2060, indicating future population increases in warmer areas. Overall, U.S. residents will experience greater exposure to fire hazard and heat over time due to climate change, and compound risk emerges because fire weather and heat are coupled and have effects across sectors. Movement to urban centers will help offset exposure to fire but not heat, because urban areas are heat islands; however, urban high-density areas had lower base temperatures, likely due to city locations along coastlines. This analysis provides a timely look at potential trends in fire and heat risk by residential density classes due to the expansion and migration of US populations