Probabilistic soil moisture projections to assess Great Britain's future clay-related subsidence hazard

Clay-related subsidence is Great Britain’s (GB) most damaging soil-related geohazard, costing the economy up to £500 million per annum. Soil-related geohazard models based on mineralogy and potential soil moisture deficit (PSMD) derived from historic weather data have been used in risk management since the 1990s. United Kingdom Climate Projections (UKCP09) suggest that regions of GB will experience hotter, drier summers and warmer, wetter winters through to 2050. As a result, PSMD fluctuations are expected to increase, exacerbating the shrinkage and swelling of clay soils. A forward-looking approach is now required to mitigate the impacts of future climate on GB’s built environment. We present a framework for incorporating probabilistic projections of PSMD, derived from a version of the UKCP09 stochastic weather generator, into a clay subsidence model. This provides a novel, national-scale thematic model of the likelihood of clay-related subsidence, related to the top 1-1.5m soil layer, for three time periods; baseline (1961-1990), 2030 (2020-2049) and 2050 (2040-2069). Results indicate that much of GB, with the exception of upland areas, will witness significantly higher PSMDs through to the 2050’s. As a result, areas with swelling clay soils will be subject to proportionately increased subsidence hazard. South-east England will likely incur the highest hazard exposure to clay-related subsidence through to 2050. Potential impacts include increased incidence of property foundation subsidence, alongside deterioration and increased failure rates of GB’s infrastructure networks. Future clay-subsidence hazard scenarios provide benefit to many sectors, including: finance, central and local government, residential property markets, utilities and infrastructure operators.EPSR

Soil geohazard mapping for improved asset management of UK local roads

Unclassified roads comprise 60% of the road network in the United Kingdom (UK). The resilience of this locally important network is declining. It is considered by the Institution of Civil Engineers to be “at risk” and is ranked 26th in the world. Many factors contribute to the degradation and ultimate failure of particular road sections. However, several UK local authorities have identified that in drought conditions, road sections founded upon shrink–swell susceptible clay soils undergo significant deterioration compared with sections on non-susceptible soils. This arises from the local road network having little, if any, structural foundations. Consequently, droughts in East Anglia have resulted in millions of pounds of damage, leading authorities to seek emergency governmental funding. This paper assesses the use of soil-related geohazard assessments in providing soil-informed maintenance strategies for the asset management of the locally important road network of the UK. A case study draws upon the UK administrative county of Lincolnshire, where road assessment data have been analysed against mapped clay-subsidence risk. This reveals a statistically significant relationship between road condition and susceptible clay soils. Furthermore, incorporation of UKCP09 future climate projections within the geohazard models has highlighted roads likely to be at future risk of clay-related subsidence

Enhanced visualization of the flat landscape of the Cambridgeshire Fenlands

The Fenlands of East Anglia, England, represent a subtle landscape, where topographic highs rarely exceed 30 m above sea level. However, the fens represent an almost full sequence of Quaternary deposits which, together with islands of Cretaceous and Jurassic outcrops, make the area of geological importance. This feature discusses the advantages of using 3D visualization coupled with high-resolution topographical data, over traditional 2D techniques, when undertaking an analysis of the landscape. Conclusions suggest that the use of 3D visualization will result in a higher level of engagement, particularly when communicating geological information to a wider public

Opening up the coast

Coastal zones attract human settlement, business and industry, and are instrumental to the functioning of societies both in coastal states and the wider global community. However, the oceans and coasts are under growing pressure as human practices change, populations rise and climate change impacts increase. In managing coastal regions, high quality data forms the basis of rational decision-making. Large volumes of ‘triple bottom line’ data exists representing a wide variety of environmental, social, and economic themes in coastal regions. Such data is especially crucial to development of environmental risk evaluations for the coast. The momentum driving the Open Source data movement across the world is accelerating and consequently, huge quantities of data are becoming freely available to the public. This presents a valuable opportunity for coastal managers, policy makers and land planners, who need to evaluate the full implications of their choices. Decision-makers frequently need to draw on many disparate datasets. However, this can be complicated by many factors, including a lack of awareness of the full range of datasets available. This paper seeks to explore this area, taking the UK as an example, to reveal how currently available open data sources relate to coastal management decision-making. Environmental risk management is a cross-cutting theme, relevant to all areas of coastal management. As such, this topic is discussed and addressed within a case study focusing on the vulnerable coastal region of East Anglia. In collation and analysis of coastal data Geographical Information Systems (GIS) can play an important role, in line with this GIS approaches were utilised within the case study. The case study led to development of a conceptual framework which can be applied to future coastal risk assessments, using Open Source data. The UK is currently at the forefront of the Open Source data movement and as such it is used as an example within this paper, however the issues addressed have international relevance, and the UK perspective is used to illustrate wider opportunities, resulting from freely available data sources, extending to management of coastal regions globally

Forward-looking climatic scenarios of UK clay-related subsidence risk

An award drawing upon the Cranfield University EPSRC-funded Impact Acceleration Account (IAA) was awarded to staff in the University’s School of Energy, Environment and Agrifood (SEEA) (Hallett, Farewell, Pritchard), to undertake processing of UKCP09 climate projections for the United Kingdom (UK) in support of assessments of future geohazards and societal impact. This report identifies the technical outcomes from this work and presents the resultant climate change cartography and related data. Spatially coherent national data ensembles are generated for the UKCP09 ‘Baseline’ period, for ‘2030’ and ‘2050’. Maps of Potential Soil Moisture Deficit (PSMD) are produced for each to exemplify its application. The findings suggest that the extremes in PSMD observed at the current time in the UK are likely to become the norm by 2030 and 2050. The data produced has a range of potential applications, from geohazard assessments to the built environment and infrastructure, to agri-informatic modelling of agricultural crops, as well as modelling for 'future-proofing' of buildings against predicted climate change by example. It is anticipated that the datasets presented from this IAA will be of benefit to a range of end-user stakeholders. One example is in the insurance, reinsurance and water utility sectors, where modelling of future impacts of climate change are conducted. Recent research has suggested this data will likely prove of use for County Councils and municipal authorities, for example in the allocation of targeted road maintenance funding, particularly on local-authority owned highways. Rail network operators, having faced a number of embankment failures, and track undulations as a result of shrink/swell activity are also likely to benefit from this research. The soil moisture deficit scenarios produced could help such organisations better manage geotechnical assets and vegetation management of susceptible slopes and soils. Cranfield’s School of Energy, Environment and Agrifood (SEEA) manage and operate the Natural Perils Directory (NPD). The NPD is a widely used geohazard thematic dataset portraying vulnerabilities arising from soil-climate responses to long-term climate change. NPD will incorporate directly the datasets produced and described here

Coastal risk adaptation: the potential role of accessible geospatial Big Data

Increasing numbers of people are living in and using coastal areas. Combined with the presence of pervasive coastal threats, such as flooding and erosion, this is having widespread impacts on coastal populations, infrastructure and ecosystems. For the right adaptive strategies to be adopted, and planning decisions to be made, rigorous evaluation of the available options is required. This evaluation hinges on the availability and use of suitable datasets. For knowledge to be derived from coastal datasets, such data needs to be combined and analysed in an effective manner. This paper reviews a wide range of literature relating to data-driven approaches to coastal risk evaluation, revealing how limitations have been imposed on many of these methods, due to restrictions in computing power and access to data. The rapidly emerging field of ‘Big Data’ can help overcome many of these hurdles. ‘Big Data’ involves powerful computer infrastructures, enabling storage, processing and real-time analysis of large volumes and varieties of data, in a fast and reliable manner. Through consideration of examples of how ‘Big Data’ technologies are being applied to fields related to coastal risk, it becomes apparent that geospatial Big Data solutions hold clear potential to improve the process of risk based decision making on the coast. ‘Big Data’ does not provide a stand-alone solution to the issues and gaps outlined in this paper, yet these technological methods hold the potential to optimise data-driven approaches, enabling robust risk profiles to be generated for coastal regions

Role of life-cycle externalities in the valuation of protic ionic liquids – a case study in biomass pretreatment solvents

Ionic liquids have found their way into many applications where they show a high potential to replace traditional chemicals. But there are concerns over their ecological impacts (toxicity and biodegradability) and high cost, which have limited their use so far. The outcome of existing techno-economic and life-cycle assessments comparing ionic liquids with existing solvents has proven hard to interpret due to the many metrics used and trade-offs between them. For the first time, this paper couples the concept of monetization with detailed process simulation and life-cycle assessment to estimate the true cost of ionic liquids. A comparative case study on four solvents used in lignocellulosic biomass pretreatment is conducted: triethylammonium hydrogen sulfate [TEA][HSO4], 1-methylimidazolium hydrogen sulfate [HMIM][HSO4], acetone from fossil sources, and glycerol from renewable sources. The results show that the total monetized cost of production accounting for externalities can be more than double the direct costs estimated using conventional economic assessment methods. The ionic liquid [TEA][HSO4] is found to have the lowest total cost, while the renewable solvent glycerol presents the highest total cost. We expect this methodology to provide a starting point for future research and development in sustainable ionic liquid

Soil and transport factors in potential distribution systems for biofertilisers derived from palm oil mill residues in Malaysia

Oil palm provides an important source of edible oils and fats, accounting for >30% of total global production and >55% of the international trade in these foodstuffs. The palms produce fresh fruit bunches, comprising several hundreds of small fruitlets, which are compressed and steamed to extract the oil. Soil nutrients in oil palm estates become depleted after decades of heavy harvesting and require fertilisers. Liquid palm oil mill effluent, solid empty fruit bunches and other residues can have deleterious environmental impacts and require careful management. The problems of residue disposal and soil nutrient impoverishment can be linked and managed by composting the oil palm mill residues and distributing the biofertiliser produced back to the plantation. Using case studies from West Malaysia we present an early stage practical tool for the planning of the distribution component of such a cycle. The computer-based tool uses multiple field-based and remote sensing data sources to integrate the effects of local soil conditions, transport distances, environmental protection and management priorities and then models customised distribution plans. The tool operates at plantation level and can be augmented with detailed local data, but the approach is extensible and potentially applicable to regional or national planning

Coupon scale Z-pinned IM7/8552 delamination tests under dynamic loading

Dynamic impact onto laminated composite structures can lead to large-scale delamination. This can be mitigated by the introduction of through-thickness reinforcement, such as z-pins. Here, mode I & II and mixed-mode delamination tests have been designed and conducted at high loading rate, for both unpinned and Z-pinned coupons to study the effect of rate of loading. It was found that the Z-pins were not effective in delaying the dynamic crack initiation or resisting the dynamic propagation of delaminations shorter than 5 mm. However, the further growth of cracks was substantially delayed by Z-pinning, especially for the pure mode I and mode I dominated failure modes. On the other hand, the effectiveness of Z-pins in shear tests was relatively modest. The mode I dominated delamination resistance of Z-pinned laminates was found to be sensitive to the loading rate