The Rise and Fall of Divorce - A Sociological Adjustment of Becker’s Model of the Marriage Market

Despite the strong and persistent influence of Gary Becker’s marriage model, the model does not completely explain the observed correlation between married women’s labor market participation and overall divorce rates. In this paper we show how a simple sociologically inspired extension of the model realigns the model’s predictions with the observed trends. The extension builds on Becker’s own claim that partners match on preference for partner specialization, and, as a novelty, on additional sociological theory claiming that preference coordination tend to happen subconsciously. When we incorporate this aspect into Becker’s model, the model provides predictions of divorce rates and causes that fit more closely with empirical observations.marriage market

Mapping traditions:historically tendencies of an urban design method

Mapping has a long tradition as a method within urban design and landscape practice and is generally used in three ways: To analyze spatial conditions, generate design interventions, and communicate design ideas or spatial knowledge. It is a tool for thinking through the activity of reformulating and interpreting the complex and three-dimensional world into often simplistic, two-dimensional visual representations. Looking at mapping in retrospect, historically positions and tendencies that reflect contemporary society and urban landscape is revealed. This paper seeks to trace the mapping positions and tendencies through time. The paper takes its historically starting point in the period of the industrialization and seeks at outlining shifting understandings and perspectives of the spatial and physical world, which has affected plans and design of urban landscapes. From this unfolding of various mapping tendencies and ways of doing thought time, the paper wishes to discuss the contemporary tendencies of urban design mapping. Here the paper discusses the implication of technological improvement in mappings. Technology has and is affecting mappings in two ways. Firstly, technology has and still is advancing the accuracy of measures of urban structure, and it increases geospatial knowledge usable in mappings as GIS (Geographical Information System) is a result of. Secondly, technology enables new ways of sensing and understanding the world, which makes it relevant to reflect on how new technologies extend the human senses and what new spatial knowledge they might enable. Hence, the paper discusses the possibilities and implications of a more technology driven urban design mapping practice

The cost of sickness: On the effect of the duration of sick leave on post-sick leave earnings

Studies analysing the effect of the duration of sick leave on subsequent labour market outcomes do not consider the potential endogenous relationship between duration and labour market outcomes. This paper deals with this shortcoming by using a consistent estimator attained through Instrumental Variables methods for estimating the effect of the duration of a sick leave spell on post-sick leave earnings. I use Danish administrative data and a major 2001 reform of the sick leave system as the instrument for duration. I find that the duration of a sick leave spell has both short and long term effects on post-sick leave earnings.Duration of sick leave Post-sick leave earnings Endogeneity Instrumental variables estimation Denmark

Exiting unemployment: How do program effects depend on individual coping strategies?

This paper analyses if individual coping strategies explain heterogeneous effects of participation in active labour market programs (ALMPs) on reemployment probabilities for the unemployed. I use survey data linked with administrative data from Statistics Denmark and focus on respondents who are unemployed or participating in ALMPs (n = 1310). To account for selection bias I analyse the data with a mixed logit model. I find that the coping strategies displayed by the unemployed persons explain heterogeneous effects of participation in ALMPs.Statistics and mathematics Personality traits and processes

The effects of unemployment on fertility

We analyse the effects of unemployment on the likelihood of having a first and second birth in Denmark. The existing studies on this topic have generated contradictory results, and have made a weak case for the exogeneity of unemployment to fertility. We suggest that firm closures constitute an exogenous source of unemployment, and adopt firm closures as an instrument for estimating individuals’ fertility responses. Using a life-course approach, we exploit unique administrative data from Denmark that include all Danish residents born in 1966 and followed between 1982 and 2006. The data contain monthly information about each individual’s employment status, type of employer, relationship status and partner’s characteristics; as well as very detailed fertility information, including on stillbirths and registered miscarriages. We find that unemployment has a positive effect on motherhood transitions and a negative effect on fatherhood transitions, although the latter is not robust to the inclusion of controls. We find no significant effect of unemployment on second births