Long-term cancer patient survival achieved by the end of the 20th century: most up-to-date estimates from the nationwide Finnish cancer registry

A new method of survival analysis, denoted period analysis, has recently been developed, which has been shown to provide more up-to-date estimates of long-term survival rates than traditional methods of survival analysis. We applied period analysis to data from the nationwide Finnish cancer registry to provide up-to-date estimates of 5-, 10-, 15- and 20-year relative survival rates (RSR) achieved by the end of the 20th century. For most forms of cancer, period estimates of long-term survival are much higher than corresponding traditional survival estimates which suggests that for these cancers there has been ongoing major progress in survival rates in recent years which so far has remained undisclosed by traditional methods of survival analysis. For example, period analysis reveals that 10 year RSR have come close to (or even exceed) 80% for cancer of the corpus uteri and melanoma, 75% for breast cancer, 70% for bladder cancer, 65% for cancer of the cervix uteri, and 55% for cancer of the colon and prostate. Period analysis further reveals that 20 year RSR have now come close to (or even exceed) 75% for endometrial cancer and melanoma, 60% for breast cancer and cervical cancer, 55% for colon cancer and bladder cancer, and 40%–50% for cancer of the rectum, the ovaries, kidneys and nervous system. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcancer.co

Age adjustment of cancer survival rates: methods, point estimates and standard errors

We empirically evaluated the performance of a new method for age adjustment of cancer survival compared to traditional age adjustment using data from the Finnish Cancer Registry. We find that both methods provide almost identical results for absolute survival but the new method generally provides more meaningful estimates of relative survival with often a smaller standard error

Dietary fat, cholesterol and colorectal cancer in a prospective study

The relationships between consumption of total fat, major dietary fatty acids, cholesterol, consumption of meat and eggs, and the incidence of colorectal cancers were studied in a cohort based on the Finnish Mobile Clinic Health Examination Survey. Baseline (1967–1972) information on habitual food consumption over the preceding year was collected from 9959 men and women free of diagnosed cancer. A total of 109 new colorectal cancer cases were ascertained late 1999. High cholesterol intake was associated with increased risk for colorectal cancers. The relative risk between the highest and lowest quartiles of dietary cholesterol was 3.26 (95% confidence interval 1.54–6.88) after adjusting for age, sex, body mass index, occupation, smoking, geographic region, energy intake and consumption of vegetables, fruits and cereals. Consumption of total fat and intake of saturated, monounsaturated, or polyunsaturated fatty acids were not significantly associated with colorectal cancer risk. Nonsignificant associations were found between consumption of meat and eggs and colorectal cancer risk. The results of the present study indicate that high cholesterol intake may increase colorectal cancer risk, but do not suggest the presence of significant effects of dietary fat intake on colorectal cancer incidence. © 2001 Cancer Research Campaign http://www.bjcancer.co

Population-based monitoring of cancer patient survival in situations with imperfect completeness of cancer registration

Selective underascertainment of cases may bias estimates of cancer patient survival. We show that the magnitude of potential bias strongly depends on the time periods affected by underascertainment and on the type of survival analysis (cohort analysis vs period analysis). We outline strategies on how to minimise or overcome potential biases

Scaling, renormalization and statistical conservation laws in the Kraichnan model of turbulent advection

We present a systematic way to compute the scaling exponents of the structure functions of the Kraichnan model of turbulent advection in a series of powers of $\xi$, adimensional coupling constant measuring the degree of roughness of the advecting velocity field. We also investigate the relation between standard and renormalization group improved perturbation theory. The aim is to shed light on the relation between renormalization group methods and the statistical conservation laws of the Kraichnan model, also known as zero modes.Comment: Latex (11pt) 43 pages, 22 figures (Feynman diagrams). The reader interested in the technical details of the calculations presented in the paper may want to visit: http://www.math.helsinki.fi/mathphys/paolo_files/passive_scalar/passcal.htm

Cancer survival in Kampala, Uganda

Epidemiological data on the occurrence of cancer in sub-Saharan Africa are sparse, and population-based cancer survival data are even more difficult to obtain due to various logistic difficulties. The population-based Cancer Registry of Kampala, Uganda, has followed up the vital status of all registered cancer patients with one of the 14 most common forms of cancer, who were diagnosed and registered between 1993 and 1997 in the study area. We report 5-year absolute and relative survival estimates of the Ugandan patients and compare them with those of black American patients diagnosed in the same years and included in the SEER Program of the United States. In general, the prognosis of cancer patients in Uganda was very poor. Differences in survival between the two patient populations were particularly dramatic for those cancer types for which early diagnosis and effective treatment is possible. For example, 5-year relative survival was as low as 8.3% for colorectal cancer and 17.7% for cervical cancer in Uganda, compared with 54.2 and 63.9%, respectively, for black American patients. The collection of good-quality follow-up data was possible in the African environment. The very poor prognosis of Ugandan patients is most likely explained by the lack of access to early diagnosis and treatment options in the country. On the policy level, the results underscore the importance of the consistent application of the national cancer control programme guidelines as outlined by the World Health Organization

Methodological issues in estimating survival in patients with multiple primary cancers: an application to women with breast cancer as a first tumour

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Comparing survival of patients with a single tumour and patients with multiple primaries poses different methodological problems. In population based studies, where we cannot rely on detailed clinical information, the issue is disentangling the share of survival probability from the first and second cancer, and their compounded effect. We examined three hypotheses: A) the survival probability since the first tumour does not change with the occurrence of a second tumour; B) the probability of surviving a tumour does not change with the presence of a previous primary; C) the probabilities of surviving two subsequent primary tumours are independent (additivity hypothesis on mortality rates).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We studied the survival probabilities modelling mortality rates according to hypotheses A), B) and C). Mortality rates were calculated using Aalen-Johansen estimators which allowed to discount for the lag-time survival before developing a second tumour. We applied this approach to a cohort of 436 women with breast cancer (BC) and a subsequent tumour in the resident population of Turin, Italy, between 1985 and 2002.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We presented our results in term of a Standardised Mortality Ratio calculated (<it>SMR</it>_<it>AJ</it>) after 10 years of follow-up. For hypothesis A we observed a significant excess mortality of 2.21 (95% C.I. 1.94 – 2.45). Concerning hypothesis B we found a not significant <it>SMR</it>_{<it>AJ </it>}of 0.98 (95% C.I. 0.87 – 1.10). The additivity hypothesis (C) was not confirmed as it overestimated the risk of death, in fact <it>SMRs</it>_{<it>AJ </it>}were all below 1: 0.75 (95% C.I. 0.66 – 0.84) for BC and all subsequent cancers, 0.72 (95% C.I. 0.55 – 0.94) for BC and colon-rectum cancer, 0.76 (95% C.I. 0.48 – 1.14) for BC and corpus uteri cancer (not significant).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This method proved to be useful in disentangling the effect of different subsequent cancers on mortality. In our application it shows a worse long-term mortality for women with two cancers than that with BC only. However, the increase in mortality was lower than expected under the additivity assumption.</p

Calculating age-adjusted cancer survival estimates when age-specific data are sparse: an empirical evaluation of various methods

We evaluated empirically the performance of various methods of calculating age-adjusted survival estimates when age-specific data are sparse. We have illustrated that a recently proposed alternative method of age adjustment involving the use of balanced age groups or age truncation may be useful for enhancing calculability and reliability of adjusted survival estimates