Long-Term Contracts in Major League Baseball

Long-term deals are one tool that both players and franchises use to manage risk. That tool has been much discussed and empirically tested with respect to player shirking, and has more briefly, and only theoretically, discussed with respect to reducing variance in future payrolls. Our work looks at how patterns of use of long-term contracts are affected by changes in contracting rules established through collective bargaining and by expected changes in franchise revenue streams. To accomplish this, we have assembled the most complete dataset of MLB player contracts to date. We analyze changes in contract length and dollar value across players of different ability levels, at different points in their careers (contract status), by position, across CBA agreements, and further examine if new stadiums and new television deals impact contract terms. We confirm the earlier finding that player performance is systematically higher during contract years than during the early portion of a long-term contract. We also find that inclusion of contract length information significantly reduces the unexplained variation in player salaries.Major League Baseball (MLB); long-term contracts; player salaries and performance; collective bargaining agreements (CBA)

Gambling problems in treatment for affective disorders:Results from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC)

BACKGROUND: Gambling problems co-occur frequently with other psychiatric difficulties and may complicate treatment for affective disorders. This study evaluated the prevalence and correlates of gambling problems in a U. S. representative sample reporting treatment for mood problems or anxiety.METHODS: n=3007 respondents indicating past-year treatment for affective disorders were derived from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC). Weighted prevalence estimates were produced and regression analyses examined correlates of gambling problems.RESULTS: Rates of lifetime and past-year problem gambling (3+DSM-IV symptoms) were 3.1% (95% CI=2.4-4.0%) and 1.4% (95% CI=0.9-2.1%), respectively, in treatment for any disorder. Rates of lifetime problem gambling ranged from 3.1% (95% CI=2.3-4.3%) for depression to 5.4% (95% CI=3.2-9.0%) for social phobia. Past-year conditions ranged from 0.9% (95% CI=0.4-2.1%) in dysthymia to 2.4% (95% CI=1.1-5.3%) in social phobia. Higher levels were observed when considering a spectrum of severity (including \u27at-risk\u27 gambling), with 8.9% (95% CI=7.7-10.2%) of respondents indicating a history of any gambling problems (1+ DSM-IV symptoms). Lifetime gambling problems predicted interpersonal problems and financial difficulties, and marijuana use, but not alcohol use, mental or physical health, and healthcare utilisation.LIMITATIONS: Data were collected in 2001-02 and were cross-sectional. CONCLUSIONS: Gambling problems occur at non-trivial rates in treatment for affective disorders and have mainly psychosocial implications. The findings indicate scope for initiatives to identify and respond to gambling problems across a continuum of severity in treatment for affective disorders

An Economic Evaluation of the Moneyball Hypothesis

Michael Lewis's book, Moneyball , describes how an innovative manager working for the Oakland Athletics successfully exploited an inefficiency in baseball's labor market over a prolonged period of time. We evaluate Lewis's claims by applying standard econometric procedures to data on player productivity and compensation from 1999 to 2004. These methods support Lewis's argument that certain baseball skills were valued inefficiently in the early part of this period, and that this inefficiency was profitably exploited by managers with the ability to generate and interpret statistical knowledge. Consistent with Lewis's story and economic reasoning, as knowledge of the inefficiency became increasingly dispersed across baseball teams the market corrected the original mispricing.

Case Dismissed: Police Discretion and Racial Differences in Dismissals of Felony Charges

Prior research has produced conflicting evidence of racial profiling during traffic stops. We instead analyze rates of case dismissal against felony arrestees by race. Superficial bias based on "unobservables" should be reduced because of the evidentiary requirements and nonnegligible costs of filing charges. Nonetheless, using data from over 58,000 US felony cases from 1990 to 1998, our probit analysis finds higher rates of dismissals for blacks for the subset of crimes that rely on police to make snap judgments. This suggests there may be more aggressive policing of blacks in these situations. Case dismissal rates are also elevated for both whites and blacks when blacks are underrepresented on local police forces. Copyright 2008, Oxford University Press.

Tobacco Use and Suicide Attempt: Longitudinal Analysis with Retrospective Reports

Background Suicide has been associated with smoking/tobacco use but its association of and change in smoking/tobacco use status with suicide attempt (SA) is not well established. Methods We investigated whether persistent, former tobacco use, initiation, quitting tobacco use, relapse to tobacco use, and DSM-IV nicotine dependence predict independently SA using Wave 1 and 2 data of the National Epidemiologic Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions. Data from 34,653 US adults interviewed at Wave 1 (2001-02) and Wave 2 (2004-05) were analyzed. The main outcome measure was SA between Wave 1 and Wave 2 as reported at Wave 2. Results Among the 1,673 respondents reporting lifetime SA at Wave 2, 328 individuals reported SA between Wave 1 and Wave 2. Current and former tobacco use at Wave 1 predicted Wave 2 SA independently of socio-demographic characteristics, psychiatric history, and prior SA (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 1.49; 95% CI: 1.13-1.95, AOR: 1.31; 95% CI:1.01-1.69, respectively versus never tobacco users). The strongest association with SA was observed among former tobacco users who relapsed after Wave 1 (AOR: 4.66; 95% CI: 3.49-6.24) and among tobacco use initiators after Wave 1 (AOR: 3.16; 95% CI: 2.23-4.49). Persistent tobacco use (current tobacco use at both Wave 1 and Wave 2) also had an increased risk of SA (AOR: 1.89; 95% CI: 1.47-2.42). However, former tobacco users in both Waves 1 and 2 did not show a significantly elevated risk for SA in Wave 2 (AOR:1.09, 95% CI: 0.78-1.52) suggesting that the risk resided mainly in Wave 1 former tobacco users who relapsed to tobacco use by Wave 2. DSM-IV nicotine dependence did not predict SA at Wave 2. Conclusion In a representative sample of US adults, relapse, tobacco use initiation, and persistent tobacco use, which are amenable to intervention, were associated with risk of SA