Natural disturbance and human land use as determinants of tropical forest dynamics: results from a forest simulator

Forests are often subject to multiple, compounded disturbances, representing both natural and human-induced processes. Predicting forest dynamics requires that we consider how these disturbances interact to affect species demography. Here we present results of an individual-based, spatially explicit forest simulator that we developed to analyze the compounded effects of hurricane disturbance and land use legacies on the dynamics of a subtropical forest. We used data from the 16-ha Luquillo Forest Dynamics Plot in Puerto Rico, together with a reconstruction of historical wind damage, to parameterize the simulator. We used the model to ask two questions. (1) What are the implications of variation in hurricane frequency and severity for the long-term dynamics of forest composition, diversity, and structure? Both storm severity and frequency had striking effects on forest dynamics, composition, and structure. The periodicity of disturbance also played an important role, with periods of high hurricane activity fostering the establishment of species that may become rare in the absence of severe storms and quiescent periods allowing these species to reach reproductive size. Species responses to hurricane disturbance could not be predicted from their life history attributes. However, species perceived to be primary forest species exhibited low temporal variation in abundance through the simulations. (2) How do hurricanes and legacies from human land use interact to determine community structure and composition? Our results suggest that, over time, regardless of the storm regime, land use legacies will become less apparent but will lead to a forest community that contains a mixture of secondary and primary forest species formerly dominant in areas of different land use. In the long term, hurricane disturbance generated two communities with slightly greater similarity than those not subject to storms. Thus, the inclusion of hurricane disturbance does not alter the prediction that land use legacies in this tropical forest will diminish over time. Our simulations also highlight the contingent effects of human legacies on subsequent community dynamics, including the response to hurricane disturbance, therefore supporting the notion that compounded disturbances can interact in ways that cannot be predicted by the study of single disturbances. The widespread importance of land use as a large-scale disturbance makes it imperative that it be addressed as a fundamental ecological process

Intra-cluster correlations from the CLustered OUtcome Dataset bank to inform the design of longitudinal cluster trials.

BACKGROUND: Sample size calculations for longitudinal cluster randomised trials, such as crossover and stepped-wedge trials, require estimates of the assumed correlation structure. This includes both within-period intra-cluster correlations, which importantly differ from conventional intra-cluster correlations by their dependence on period, and also cluster autocorrelation coefficients to model correlation decay. There are limited resources to inform these estimates. In this article, we provide a repository of correlation estimates from a bank of real-world clustered datasets. These are provided under several assumed correlation structures, namely exchangeable, block-exchangeable and discrete-time decay correlation structures. METHODS: Longitudinal studies with clustered outcomes were collected to form the CLustered OUtcome Dataset bank. Forty-four available continuous outcomes from 29 datasets were obtained and analysed using each correlation structure. Patterns of within-period intra-cluster correlation coefficient and cluster autocorrelation coefficients were explored by study characteristics. RESULTS: The median within-period intra-cluster correlation coefficient for the discrete-time decay model was 0.05 (interquartile range: 0.02-0.09) with a median cluster autocorrelation of 0.73 (interquartile range: 0.19-0.91). The within-period intra-cluster correlation coefficients were similar for the exchangeable, block-exchangeable and discrete-time decay correlation structures. Within-period intra-cluster correlation coefficients and cluster autocorrelations were found to vary with the number of participants per cluster-period, the period-length, type of cluster (primary care, secondary care, community or school) and country income status (high-income country or low- and middle-income country). The within-period intra-cluster correlation coefficients tended to decrease with increasing period-length and slightly decrease with increasing cluster-period sizes, while the cluster autocorrelations tended to move closer to 1 with increasing cluster-period size. Using the CLustered OUtcome Dataset bank, an RShiny app has been developed for determining plausible values of correlation coefficients for use in sample size calculations. DISCUSSION: This study provides a repository of intra-cluster correlations and cluster autocorrelations for longitudinal cluster trials. This can help inform sample size calculations for future longitudinal cluster randomised trials

The rate of X-ray-induced DNA double-strand break repair in the embryonic mouse brain is unaff ected by exposure to 50 Hz magnetic fi elds

Following in utero exposure to low dose radiation (10 – 200 mGy), we recently observed a linear induction of DNA double-strand breaks (DSB) and activation of apoptosis in the embryonic neuronal stem/progenitor cell compartment. No signifi cant induction of DSB or apoptosis was observed following exposure to magnetic fi elds (MF). In the present study, we exploited this in vivo system to examine whether exposure to MF before and after exposure to 100 mGy X-rays impacts upon DSB repair rates. Materials and methods : 53BP1 foci were quantifi ed following combined exposure to radiation and MF in the embryonic neuronal stem/progenitor cell compartment. Embryos were exposed in utero to 50 Hz MF at 300 m T for 3 h before and up to 9 h after exposure to 100 mGy X-rays. Controls included embryos exposed to MF or X-rays alone plus sham exposures. Results : Exposure to MF before and after 100 mGy X-rays did not impact upon the rate of DSB repair in the embryonic neuronal stem cell compartment compared to repair rates following radiation exposure alone. Conclusions : We conclude that in this sensitive system MF do not exert any signifi cant level of DNA damage and do not impede the repair of X-ray induced damage

Ordered subset linkage analysis supports a susceptibility locus for age-related macular degeneration on chromosome 16p12

BACKGROUND: Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a complex disorder that is responsible for the majority of central vision loss in older adults living in developed countries. Phenotypic and genetic heterogeneity complicate the analysis of genome-wide scans for AMD susceptibility loci. The ordered subset analysis (OSA) method is an approach for reducing heterogeneity, increasing statistical power for detecting linkage, and helping to define the most informative data set for follow-up analysis. OSA assesses the linkage evidence in subsets of potentially more homogeneous families by rank-ordering family-specific lod scores with respect to trait-associated covariates or phenotypic features. Here, we present results of incorporating five continuous covariates into our genome-wide linkage analysis of 389 microsatellite markers in 62 multiplex families: Body mass index (BMI), systolic (SBP) and diastolic (DBP) blood pressure, intraocular pressure (IOP), and pack-years of cigarette smoking. Chromosome-wide significance of increases in nonparametric multipoint lod scores in covariate-defined subsets relative to the overall sample was assessed by permutation. RESULTS: Using a correction for testing multiple covariates, statistically significant lod score increases were observed for two chromosomal regions: 14q13 with a lod score of 3.2 in 28 families with average IOP ≤ 15.5 (p = 0.002), and 6q14 with a lod score of 1.6 in eight families with average BMI ≥ 30.1 (p = 0.0004). On chromosome 16p12, nominally significant lod score increases (p ≤ 0.05), up to a lod score of 2.9 in 32 families, were observed with several covariate orderings. While less significant, this was the only region where linkage evidence was associated with multiple clinically meaningful covariates and the only nominally significant finding when analysis was restricted to advanced forms of AMD. Families with linkage to 16p12 had higher averages of SBP, IOP and BMI and were primarily affected with neovascular AMD. For all three regions, linkage signals at or very near the peak marker have previously been reported. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that a susceptibility gene on chromosome 16p12 may predispose to AMD, particularly to the neovascular form, and that further research into the previously suggested association of neovascular AMD and systemic hypertension is warranted

Feasibility and impact of Creciendo Sanos, a clinic-based pilot intervention to prevent obesity among preschool children in Mexico City

Background: Mexico has the highest adult overweight and obesity prevalence in the Americas; 23.8% of children <5 years old are at risk for overweight and 9.7% are already overweight or obese. Creciendo Sanos was a pilot intervention to prevent obesity among preschoolers in Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS) clinics. Methods: We randomized 4 IMSS primary care clinics to either 6 weekly educational sessions promoting healthful nutrition and physical activity or usual care. We recruited 306 parent-child pairs: 168 intervention, 138 usual care. Children were 2-5 years old with WHO body mass index (BMI) z-score 0-3. We measured children’s height and weight and parents reported children’s diet and physical activity at baseline and 3 and 6-month follow-up. We analyzed behavioral and BMI outcomes with generalized mixed models incorporating multiple imputation for missing values. Results: 93 (55%) intervention and 96 (70%) usual care families completed 3 and 6-month follow-up. At 3 months, intervention v. usual care children increased vegetables by 6.3 servings/week (95% CI, 1.8, 10.8). In stratified analyses, intervention participants with high program adherence (5-6 sessions) decreased snacks and screen time and increased vegetables v. usual care. No further effects on behavioral outcomes or BMI were observed. Transportation time and expenses were barriers to adherence. 90% of parents who completed the post-intervention survey were satisfied with the program. Conclusions: Although satisfaction was high among participants, barriers to participation and retention included transportation cost and time. In intention to treat analyses, we found intervention effects on vegetable intake, but not other behaviors or BMI. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01539070. Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica del IMSS: 2009-785-120

Early adult-onset POAG linked to 15q11-13 using ordered subset analysis

Purpose—Primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG) is a complex inherited disorder. It has been demonstrated in other complex disorders that phenotypic heterogeneity may be the result of genetic heterogeneity and that stratification analysis can be used to increase the power of detection. Ordered subset analysis (OSA) is a recently described method that utilizes the variability of phenotypic traits to determine underlying genetic heterogeneity. Methods—Eighty-six multiplex families with POAG were clinically ascertained for genetic analysis. Age at diagnosis (AAD) was used as a surrogate for age of onset in affected family members. Nine genetic markers within the 15q11–13 interval on chromosome 15 were used for OSA analysis. Results—An 11-cM linkage interval with a peak LOD score of 3.24 centered at the GABRB3 locus (P = 0.013 by permutation test) was identified in a subset of 15 families, which represents 17 % of the total dataset (15/86 families). The mean AAD for the affected OSA families was 44.1 ± 9.1 years (SD). The mean AAD for the complementary group was 61.3 ± 10.4 years. African-American and white families were well represented in the OSA subset. Conclusions—Linkage was identified for POAG to an 11-cM region on chromosome 15

Cancer risk in childhood-onset systemic lupus

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to assess cancer incidence in childhood-onset systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). METHODS: We ascertained cancers within SLE registries at 10 pediatric centers. Subjects were linked to cancer registries for the observational interval, spanning 1974 to 2009. The ratio of observed to expected cancers represents the standardized incidence ratio (SIR) or relative cancer risk in childhood-onset SLE, versus the general population. RESULTS: There were 1020 patients aged <18 at cohort entry. Most (82%) were female and Caucasian; mean age at cohort entry was 12.6 years (standard deviation (SD) = 3.6). Subjects were observed for a total of 7,986 (average 7.8) patient-years. Within this interval, only three invasive cancers were expected. However, 14 invasive cancers occurred with an SIR of 4.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.6 to 7.8. Three hematologic cancers were found (two non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma, one leukemia), for an SIR of 5.2 (95% CI 1.1 to 15.2). The SIRs stratified by age group and sex, were similar across these strata. There was a trend for highest cancer occurrence 10 to 19 years after SLE diagnosis. CONCLUSIONS: These results suggest an increased cancer risk in pediatric onset SLE versus the general population. In absolute terms, this represents relatively few events. Of note, risk may be highest only after patients have transferred to adult care

Effect of environmental changes on vegetable and legume yields and nutritional quality.

Environmental changes threaten agricultural production, food security, and health. Previous reviews suggest that environmental changes will substantially affect future yields of starchy dietary staples. To date, no comprehensive global analysis of the impacts of environmental change on (nonstaple) vegetables and legumes-important constituents of healthy diets-has been reported. We systematically searched for articles published between 1975 and 2016 on the effects of ambient temperature, tropospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), and ozone (O3) concentrations, water availability, and salinization on yields and nutritional quality of vegetables and legumes. We estimated mean effects of standardized environmental changes using observed exposure-response relationships and conducted meta-analyses where possible. We identified 174 relevant papers reporting 1,540 experiments. The mean (95% CI) reported yield changes for all vegetables and legumes combined were +22.0% (+11.6% to +32.5%) for a 250-ppm increase in CO2 concentration, -8.9% (-15.6% to -2.2%) for a 25% increase in O3 concentration,-34.7% (-44.6% to -24.9%) for a 50% reduction in water availability, and -2.3% (-3.7% to -0.9%) for a 25% increase in salinity. In papers with baseline temperatures >20 °C, a 4 °C increase in temperature reduced mean yields by -31.5% (-41.4% to -21.5%). Impacts of environmental changes on nutritional quality were mixed. In a business-as-usual scenario, predicted changes in environmental exposures would lead to reductions in yields of nonstaple vegetables and legumes. Where adaptation possibilities are limited, this may substantially change their global availability, affordability, and consumption in the mid to long term. Our results stress the importance of prioritizing agricultural developments, to minimize potential reductions in vegetable and legume yields and associated negative health effects

Determinants of successful clinical networks : The conceptual framework and study protocol

Background Clinical networks are increasingly being viewed as an important strategy for increasing evidence-based practice and improving models of care, but success is variable and characteristics of networks with high impact are uncertain. This study takes advantage of the variability in the functioning and outcomes of networks supported by the Australian New South Wales (NSW) Agency for Clinical Innovation's non-mandatory model of clinical networks to investigate the factors that contribute to the success of clinical networks. Methods/Design The objective of this retrospective study is to examine the association between external support, organisational and program factors, and indicators of success among 19 clinical networks over a three-year period (2006-2008). The outcomes (health impact, system impact, programs implemented, engagement, user perception, and financial leverage) and explanatory factors will be collected using a web-based survey, interviews, and record review. An independent expert panel will provide judgements about the impact or extent of each network's initiatives on health and system impacts. The ratings of the expert panel will be the outcome used in multivariable analyses. Following the rating of network success, a qualitative study will be conducted to provide a more in-depth examination of the most successful networks. Discussion This is the first study to combine quantitative and qualitative methods to examine the factors that contribute to the success of clinical networks and, more generally, is the largest study of clinical networks undertaken. The adaptation of expert panel methods to rate the impacts of networks is the methodological innovation of this study. The proposed project will identify the conditions that should be established or encouraged by agencies developing clinical networks and will be of immediate use in forming strategies and programs to maximise the effectiveness of such networks