Recalibration of the lunar chronology due to spatial cratering-rate variability

Cratering chronologies are used to derive the history of planetary bodies and assume an isotropic flux of impactors over the entire surface of the Moon. The impactor population is largely dominated by near-Earth-objects (NEOs) since ∼3.5 billion years ago. However, lunar impact probabilities from the currently known NEO population show an excess of impacts close to the poles compared to the equator as well as a latitudinal dependency of the approach angle of impactors. This is accompanied by a variation of the impact flux and speed with the distance from the apex due to the synchronicity of the lunar orbit around the Earth. Here, we compute the spatial dependency of the cratering rate produced by such variabilities and recalibrate the lunar chronology. We show that it allows to reconcile the crater density measured at mid-latitudes around the Chang'e-5 landing site with the age of the samples collected by this mission. Our updated chronology leads to differences in model ages of up to 30% compared to other chronology systems. The modeled cratering rate variability is then compared with the distribution of lunar craters younger than ∼1 Ma, 1 Ga and 4 Ga. The general trend of the cratering distribution is consistent with the one obtained from dynamical models of NEOs, thus potentially reflecting a nonuniform distribution of orbital parameters of ancient impactor populations, beyond 3.5 Ga ago, i.e., planetary leftovers and cometary bodies. If the nonuniformity of the cratering rate could be tested elsewhere in the Solar System, the recalibrated lunar chronology, corrected from spatial variations of the impact flux and approach conditions of impactors, could be extrapolated on other terrestrial bodies such as Mercury and Mars, at least over the last 3.5 billion years. The modeled cratering rate presented here has strong implications for interpreting results of the Artemis program, aiming to explore the South Pole of our satellite, in particular when it will come to link the radiometric age of the samples collected in this region and the crater density of the sampled units.Validerad;2024;Nivå 2;2024-01-17 (signyg);Funder: Curtin University; the Western Australian Government; the Australian Government; the Pawsey Supercomputing Centre ADACS (Astronomy Data and Compute Services); Initiative d'Excellence d'Aix-Marseille Université (A*MIDEX AMX-21-RID-O47); NASA  (grant nos. 80NSSC21K0153, 80NSSC19M0217, 80GSFC21M000, 80NSSC19M0089); CSIRO;Full text license: CC BY-NC-ND</p

3D meteoroid trajectories

Meteoroid modelling of fireball data typically uses a one dimensional model along a straight line triangulated trajectory. The assumption of a straight line trajectory has been considered an acceptable simplification for fireballs, but it has not been rigorously tested. The unique capability of the Desert Fireball Network (DFN) to triangulate discrete observation times gives the opportunity to investigate the deviation of a meteoroid's position to different model fits. Here we assess the viability of a straight line assumption for fireball data in two meteorite-dropping test cases observed by the Desert Fireball Network (DFN) in Australia – one over 21 s (DN151212_03), one under 5 seconds (DN160410_03). We show that a straight line is not valid for these two meteorite dropping events and propose a three dimensional particle filter to model meteoroid positions without any straight line constraints. The single body equations in three dimensions, along with the luminosity equation, are applied to the particle filter methodology described by Sansom et al. (2017). Modelling fireball camera network data in three dimensions has not previously been attempted. This allows the raw astrometric, line-of-sight observations to be incorporated directly. In analysing these two DFN events, the triangulated positions based on a straight line assumption result in the modelled meteoroid positions diverging up to 3.09 km from the calculated observed point (for DN151212_03). Even for the more typical fireball event, DN160410_03, we see a divergence of up to 360 m. As DFN observations are typically precise to &lt; 100 m, it is apparent that the assumption of a straight line is an oversimplification that will affect orbit calculations and meteorite search regions for a significant fraction of events