Additional EIPC Study Analysis: Interim Report on High Priority Topics

Between 2010 and 2012 the Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC) conducted a major long-term resource and transmission study of the Eastern Interconnection (EI). With guidance from a Stakeholder Steering Committee (SSC) that included representatives from the Eastern Interconnection States Planning Council (EISPC) among others, the project was conducted in two phases. Phase 1 involved a long-term capacity expansion analysis that involved creation of eight major futures plus 72 sensitivities. Three scenarios were selected for more extensive transmission- focused evaluation in Phase 2. Five power flow analyses, nine production cost model runs (including six sensitivities), and three capital cost estimations were developed during this second phase. The results from Phase 1 and 2 provided a wealth of data that could be examined further to address energy-related questions. A list of 13 topics was developed for further analysis; this paper discusses the first five

The Oak Ridge Competitive Electricity Dispatch (ORCED) Model

The Oak Ridge Competitive electricity Dispatch (ORCED) model has been used for multiple analyses of the impacts of different technologies and policies on the electricity grid. The model was developed over ten years ago and has been greatly enhanced since the initial documentation from June 1998 (ORNL/CON-464). The report gives guidance on the workflow and methodologies used, but does not provide a complete user's manual detailing steps necessary to operate the model. It lists the major resources used, shows the main inputs and outputs of the model, and describes how it can be used for a variety of analyses

The impact of carbon taxes or allowances on the electric generation market in the Ohio and ECAR region

The North American electricity grid is separated into 11 regional reliability councils, collectively called the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC). The East Central Area Reliability Coordination Agreement (ECAR) is the reliability council that covers Ohio and Indiana, along with parts of Kentucky, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and West Virginia. Ohio and the rest of the ECAR region rely more heavily on coal-fired generation than any other US region. The purpose of this report is to study the effect of carbon reduction policies on the cost and price of generation in the ECAR region, with an emphasis on Ohio. In order to do that, the author modeled the possible electric generation system for the ECAR and Ohio region for the year 2010 using a model developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory called the Oak Ridge Competitive Electric Dispatch model (ORCED). He let the model optimize the system based on various factors and carbon reduction policies to understand their impact. He then used the electricity prices and assumed demand elasticities to change the demands while also requiring all power plants to be profitable. The author discusses the different potential policies for carbon reduction and issues involving a restructured market; describes the model used for this analysis, the ECAR electricity sector, and the establishment of a base case; and describes the results of applying various carbon emission reduction approaches to the region. 14 figs., 5 tabs

Potential Impacts of Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles on Regional Power Generation

Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are being developed around the world, with much work aiming to optimize engine and battery for efficient operation, both during discharge and when grid electricity is available for recharging. However, the general expectation has been that the grid will not be greatly affected by the use of PHEVs because the recharging will occur during off-peak hours, or the number of vehicles will grow slowly enough so that capacity planning will respond adequately. This expectation does not consider that drivers will control the timing of recharging, and their inclination will be to plug in when convenient, rather than when utilities would prefer. It is important to understand the ramifications of adding load from PHEVs onto the grid. Depending on when and where the vehicles are plugged in, they could cause local or regional constraints on the grid. They could require the addition of new electric capacity and increase the utilization of existing capacity. Usage patterns of local distribution grids will change, and some lines or substations may become overloaded sooner than expected. Furthermore, the type of generation used to meet the demand for recharging PHEVs will depend on the region of the country and the timing of recharging. This paper analyzes the potential impacts of PHEVs on electricity demand, supply, generation structure, prices, and associated emission levels in 2020 and 2030 in 13 regions specified by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) and the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Information Administration (EIA), and on which the data and analysis in EIA's Annual Energy Outlook 2007 are based (Figure ES-1). The estimates of power plant supplies and regional hourly electricity demand come from publicly available sources from EIA and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission. Electricity requirements for PHEVs are based on analysis from the Electric Power Research Institute, with an optimistic projection of 25% market penetration by 2020, involving a mixture of sedans and sport utility vehicles. The calculations were done using the Oak Ridge Competitive Electricity Dispatch (ORCED) model, a model developed over the past 12 years to evaluate a wide variety of critical electricity sector issues. Seven scenarios were run for each region for 2020 and 2030, for a total of 182 scenarios. In addition to a base scenario of no PHEVs, the authors modeled scenarios assuming that vehicles were either plugged in starting at 5:00 p.m. (evening) or at 10:00 p.m.(night) and left until fully charged. Three charging rates were examined: 120V/15A (1.4 kW), 120V/20A (2 kW), and 220V/30A (6 kW). Most regions will need to build additional capacity or utilize demand response to meet the added demand from PHEVs in the evening charging scenarios, especially by 2030 when PHEVs have a larger share of the installed vehicle base and make a larger demand on the system. The added demands of evening charging, especially at high power levels, can impact the overall demand peaks and reduce the reserve margins for a region's system. Night recharging has little potential to influence peak loads, but will still influence the amount and type of generation

Power Transfer Potential to the Southeast in Response to a Renewable Portfolio Standard: Interim Report 1

The power transfer potential for bringing renewable energy into the Southeast in response to a renewable portfolio standard (RPS) will depend not only on available transmission capacity but also on electricity supply and demand factors. This interim report examines how the commonly used EIA NEMS and EPRI NESSIE energy equilibrium models are considering such power transfers. Using regional estimates of capacity expansion and demand, a base case for 2008, 2020 and 2030 are compared relative to generation mix, renewable deployments, planned power transfers, and meeting RPS goals. The needed amounts of regional renewable energy to comply with possible RPS levels are compared to inter-regional transmission capacities to establish a baseline available for import into the Southeast and other regions. Gaps in the renewable generation available to meet RPS requirements are calculated. The initial finding is that the physical capability for transferring renewable energy into the SE is only about 10% of what would be required to meet a 20% RPS. Issues that need to be addressed in future tasks with respect to modeling are the current limitations for expanding renewable capacity and generation in one region to meet the demand in another and the details on transmission corridors required to deliver the power

ECONOMIC IMPACTS RESULTING FROM CO-FIRING BIOMASS FEEDSTOCKS IN SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAL-FIRED PLANTS

Economic impacts of using biomass in Southeast United States coal-fired plants are estimated using a county-level biomass database; ORCED, a dynamic electricity distribution model that estimates feedstock value; ORIBAS, a GIS model that estimates feedstock transportation costs; and IMPLAN, an input-output model that determines the impacts of co-firing on economic activity.Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

A Review of Barriers to and Opportunities for the Integration of Renewable Energy in the Southeast

The objectives of this study were to prepare a summary report that examines the opportunities for and obstacles to the integration of renewable energy resources in the Southeast between now and the year 2030. The report, which is based on a review of existing literature regarding renewable resources in the Southeast, includes the following renewable energy resources: wind, solar, hydro, geothermal, biomass, and tidal. The evaluation was conducted by the Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the Energy Foundation and is a subjective review with limited detailed analysis. However, the report offers a best estimate of the magnitude, time frame, and cost of deployment of renewable resources in the Southeast based upon the literature reviewed and reasonable engineering and economic estimates. For the purposes of this report, the Southeast is defined as the states of Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia. In addition, some aspects of the report (wind and geothermal) also consider the extended Southeast, which includes Maryland, Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas. A description of the existing base of renewable electricity installations in the region is given for each technology considered. Where available, the possible barriers and other considerations regarding renewable energy resources are listed in terms of availability, investment and maintenance costs, reliability, installation requirements, policies, and energy market. As stated above, the report is a comprehensive review of renewable energy resources in the southeastern region of United States based on a literature study that included information obtained from the Southern Bio-Power wiki, sources from the Energy Foundation, sources available to ORNL, and sources found during the review. The report consists of an executive summary, this introductory chapter describing report objectives, a chapter on analysis methods and the status of renewable resources, chapters devoted to each identified renewable resource, and a brief summary chapter. Chapter 2 on analysis methods and status summarizes the benefits of integrating renewable energy resources in the Southeast. The utilization of the existing fuels, both the fossil fuels and the renewable energy resources, is evaluated. The financial rewards of renewable resources are listed, which includes the amount of fuel imported from outside the Southeast to find the net benefit of local renewable generation, and both the typical and new green job opportunities that arise from renewable generation in the Southeast. With the load growth in the Southeast, the growth of transmission and fossil fuel generation may not meet the growing demands for energy. The load growth is estimated, and the benefits of renewable resources for solving local growing energy demands are evaluated. Chapters 3-7 discuss the key renewable energy resources in the Southeast. Six resources available in this region that are discussed are (1) wind, including both onshore and offshore; (2) solar, including passive, photovoltaic, and concentrating; (3) biomass energy, including switchgrass, biomass co-firing, wood, woody biomass, wood industry by-products (harvesting residues, mill waste, etc.), agricultural byproducts, landfill gas to energy and anaerobic digester gas; (4) hydro; and (5) geothermal. Because of limited development, ocean wave and tidal were not considered to be available in significant quantity before 2030 and are not presented in the final analysis. Estimates on the location of potential megawatt generation from these renewable resources in the Southeast are made. Each chapter will describe the existing base of the renewable electricity installations in the region now and, when available, the base of the existing manufacturing capacity in the region for renewable energy resources hardware and software. The possible barriers and considerations for renewable energy resources are presented

Power Transfer Potential to the Southeast in Response to a Renewable Portfolio Standard: Final Report

Electricity consumption in the Southeastern US, including Florida, is approximately 32% of the total US. The availability of renewable resources for electricity production is relatively small compared to the high consumption. Therefore meeting a national renewable portfolio standard (RPS) is particularly challenging in this region. Neighboring regions, particularly to the west, have significant wind resources and given sufficient transmission these resources could serve energy markets in the SE. This report looks at renewable resource supply relative to demands and the potential for power transfer into the SE. We found that significant wind energy transfers, at the level of 30-60 GW, are expected to be economic in case of federal RPC or CO2 policy. Development of wind resources will depend not only on the available transmission capacity and required balancing resources, but also on electricity supply and demand factors

Developing Generic Dynamic Models for the 2030 Eastern Interconnection Grid

The Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC) has built three major power flow cases for the 2030 Eastern Interconnection (EI) based on various levels of energy/environmental policy conditions, technology advances, and load growth. Using the power flow cases, this report documents the process of developing the generic 2030 dynamic models using typical dynamic parameters. The constructed model was validated indirectly using the synchronized phasor measurements by removing the wind generation temporarily

Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle Value Proposition Study: Phase 1, Task 2: Select Value Propositions/Business Model for Further Study

The Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV) Value Propositions Workshop held in Washington, D.C. in December 2007 served as the Task 1 Milestone for this study. Feedback from all five Workshop breakout sessions has been documented in a Workshop Summary Report, which can be found at www.sentech.org/phev. In this report, the project team compiled and presented a comprehensive list of potential value propositions that would later serve as a 'grab bag' of business model components in Task 2. After convening with the Guidance and Evaluation Committee and other PHEV stakeholders during the Workshop, several improvements to the technical approach were identified and incorporated into the project plan to present a more realistic and accurate case study and evaluation. The assumptions and modifications that will have the greatest impact on the case study selection process in Task 2 are described in more detail in this deliverable. The objective of Task 2 is to identify the combination of value propositions that is believed to be achievable by 2030 and collectively hold promise for a sustainable PHEV market by 2030. This deliverable outlines what the project team (with input from the Committee) has defined as its primary scenario to be tested in depth for the remainder of Phase 1. Plans for the second and third highest priority/probability business scenarios are also described in this deliverable as proposed follow up case studies in Phase 2. As part of each case study description, the proposed utility system (or subsystem), PHEV market segment, and facilities/buildings are defined