Prospective cohort study of routine use of risk assessment scales for prediction of pressure ulcers

Objective To evaluate whether risk assessment scales can be used to identify patients who are likely to get pressure ulcers.Design Prospective cohort study.Setting Two large hospitals in the Netherlands.Participants 1229 patients admitted to the surgical, internal, neurological, or geriatric wards between January 1999 and June 2000.Main outcome measure Occurrence of a pressure ulcer of grade 2 or worse while in hospital.Results 135 patients developed pressure ulcers during four weeks after admission. The weekly incidence of patients with pressure ulcers was 6.2% (95% confidence interval 5.2% to 7.2%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.56 (0.51 to 0.61) for the Norton scale, 0.55 (0.49 to 0.60) for the Braden scale, and 0.61 (0.56 to 0.66) for the Waterlow scale; the areas for the subpopulation, excluding patients who received preventive measures without developing pressure ulcers and excluding surgical patients, were 0.71 (0.65 to 0.77), 0.71 (0.64 to 0.78), and 0.68 (0.61 to 0.74), respectively. In this subpopulation, using the recommended cut­off points, the positive predictive value was 7.0% for the Norton, 7.8% for the Braden, and 5.3% for the Waterlow scale.Conclusion Although risk assessment scales predict the occurrence of pressure ulcers to some extent, routine use of these scales leads to inefficient use of preventive measures. An accurate risk assessment scale based on prospectively gathered data should be developed

Predicting pressure ulcers: cases missed using a new clinical prediction rule

Aim. The aim of this paper is to report a study describing patients with pressureulcers that were incorrectly classified as ‘not at risk’ by the prediction rule andcomparing them with patients who were correctly classified as ‘not at risk’.Background. Patients admitted to hospital are at risk of developing pressure ulcers. Although the majority of pressure ulcers can be predicted using a recently developed prediction rule, up to 30% of patients with pressure ulcers may still be misclassified. Methods. Between January 1999 and June 2000 a prospective cohort study was conducted in two large hospitals in the Netherlands. Patients admitted to neurology, internal, surgical, and elder care wards for more than 5 days were included (n ¼ 1229), and were examined weekly. Information on potential prognostic determinants for pressure ulcers mentioned in the literature was recorded. Outcome was defined as occurrence of a pressure ulcer grade 2 or worse during hospital admission.Results. Patients who developed pressure ulcers experienced more problems with ‘friction and shear’ and underwent surgery more often and longer. Also, they were more often admitted because of malignant conditions.Conclusion. We found no specific characteristics that clearly distinguished patients with pressure ulcers that were incorrectly classified as ‘not at risk’ by the prediction rule from patients who were correctly classified as ‘not at risk’. It appears difficult to improve further on the prediction of pressure ulcers using available clinical information