The Impact of Government Policy on Private Car Ownership in Ireland

We construct a model of the stock of private cars in the Republic of Ireland. The model distinguishes cars by fuel, engine size and age. The modelled car stock is built up from a long history of data on sales, and calibrated to recent data on actual stock. We complement the data on the number of cars with data on fuel efficiency and distance driven – which together give fuel use and emissions – and the costs of purchase, ownership and use. We use the model to project the car stock from 2010 to 2025. The following results emerge. The 2009 reform of the vehicle registration and motor tax has led to a dramatic shift from petrol to diesel cars. Fuel efficiency has improved and will improve further as a result, but because diesel cars are heavier, carbon dioxide emissions are reduced but not substantially so. The projected emissions in 2020 are roughly the same as in 2007. In a second set of simulations, we impose the government targets for electrification of transport. As all-electric vehicles are likely to displace small, efficient, and little-driven petrol cars, the effect on carbon dioxide emissions is minimal. We also consider the scrappage scheme, which has little effect as it applies to a small fraction of the car stock only,

How impact fees and local planning regulation can influence deployment of telecoms infrastructure

This paper examines how local government planning regulations and charges affect the deployment of telecommunications infrastructure. We explore the economic rationale for local government regulation of such infrastructure, which we suggest should be based on managing negative externalities. Using data from Ireland, we find that the observed geographical pattern of impact fees is inconsistent with the economic rationale for them. A simple econometric model of the number of telecoms masts in each country also suggests that the level of impact fees is negatively associated with mast deployment. This paper also examines other regulatory factors that affect the provision of new infrastructure. We find wide regional variation in these regulations but are unableto quantify their impact on infrastructure provision. Such regulatory complexity places extra compliance burdens on private operators, which may in turn distort the level and regional pattern of network investment. We suggest further regional harmonisation of development policy towards telecoms infrastructure to avoid exacerbating regional disparities in rollout of services. --Land use regulation,telecommunications infrastructure investment,impact fees

The HERMES model of the Irish Energy Sector. ESRI WP396. July 2011

In Ireland, the energy sector has undergone significant change in the last forty years. In this period, there has been a significant increase in the demand for energy. This increase has been driven by economic and demographic factors. Although the current deep recession has quelled the upward trend in the demand for energy, a future economic recovery will bring these issues back into focus. This paper documents a model of the Irish energy sector which relates energy demand to real economic variables. As part of the HERMES macro-economic model this model of the energy sector has, for a number of years, been used to forecast energy demand. However, the energy model itself can be considered in isolation from the MERMES macro-economic model and this paper gives details of its specification

The Impact of Tax Reform on New Car Purchases in Ireland. ESRI WP349. July 2010

We examine the impact of recent tax reforms in Ireland on private car transport and its greenhouse gas emissions. A carbon tax was introduced on fuels, and purchase (vehicle registration) and ownership (motor) taxes were switched from engine size to potential emissions. We use a demographic model of the car stock (by age, size, and fuel) and a car purchase model that reflects the heterogeneous distribution of mileage and usage costs across various engine sizes. The model shows a dramatic shift from petrol to diesel cars, particularly for large engines. The same pattern is observed in the latest data on car sales. This has a substantial impact on tax revenue as car owners shift to the lower tax rates. The tax burden has shifted from car ownership to car use, and that the overall tax burden on private car transport falls. As diesel engines are more fuel efficient than petrol engines, carbon dioxide emissions fall modestly or, if we consider the rebound effect of travel costs on mileage, minimally. From the perspective of the revenue, the costs per tonne of carbon dioxide avoided are (very) high

The Impact of Climate Policy on Private Car Ownership in Ireland. ESRI WP342. April 2010

We construct a model of the stock of private cars in the Republic of Ireland. The model distinguishes cars by fuel, engine size and age. The modelled car stock is build up from a long history of data on sales, and calibrated to recent data on actual stock. We complement the data on the number of cars with data on fuel efficiency and distance driven – which together give fuel use and emissions – and the costs of purchase, ownership and use. We use the model to project the car stock from 2010 to 2025. The following results emerge. The 2009 reform of the vehicle registration and motor tax has lead to a dramatic shift from petrol to diesel cars. Fuel efficiency has improved and will improve further as a result, but because diesel cars are heavier, carbon dioxide emissions are reduced but not substantially so. The projected emissions in 2020 are roughly the same as in 2007. In a second set of simulations, we impose the government targets for electrification of transport. As all-electric vehicles are likely to displace small, efficient, and little-driven petrol cars, the effect on carbon dioxide emissions is minimal. We also consider the scrappage scheme, which has little effect as it applies to a small fraction of the car stock only

How impact fees and local planning regulation can influence deployment of telecoms infrastructure

This paper examines how local government planning regulations and charges affect the deployment of telecommunications infrastructure. We explore the economic rationale for local government regulation of such infrastructure, which we suggest should be based on managing negative externalities. Using data from Ireland, we find that the observed geographical pattern of impact fees is inconsistent with the economic rationale for them. A simple econometric model of the number of telecoms masts in each country also suggests that the level of impact fees is negatively associated with mast deployment. This paper also examines other regulatory factors that affect the provision of new infrastructure. We find wide regional variation in these regulations but are unableto quantify their impact on infrastructure provision. Such regulatory complexity places extra compliance burdens on private operators, which may in turn distort the level and regional pattern of network investment. We suggest further regional harmonisation of development policy towards telecoms infrastructure to avoid exacerbating regional disparities in rollout of services

The impact of climate policy on private car ownership in Ireland

We construct a model of the stock of private cars in the Republic of Ireland. The model distinguishes cars by fuel, engine size and age. The modelled car stock is build up from a long history of data on sales, and calibrated to recent data on actual stock. We complement the data on the number of cars with data on fuel efficiency and distance driven which together give fuel use and emissions and the costs of purchase, ownership and use. We use the model to project the car stock from 2010 to 2025. The following results emerge. The 2009 reform of the vehicle registration and motor tax has lead to a dramatic shift from petrol to diesel cars. Fuel efficiency has improved and will improve further as a result, but because diesel cars are heavier, carbon dioxide emissions are reduced but not substantially so. The projected emissions in 2020 are roughly the same as in 2007. In a second set of simulations, we impose the government targets for electrification of transport. As all-electric vehicles are likely to displace small, efficient, and little-driven petrol cars, the effect on carbon dioxide emissions is minimal. We also consider the scrappage scheme, which has little effect as it applies to a small fraction of the car stock only

How impact fees and local planning regulation can influence deployment of telecoms infrastructure. ESRI WP401, August 2011

This paper examines how local government planning regulations and charges affect the deployment of telecommunications infrastructure. We explore the economic rationale for local government regulation of such infrastructure, which we suggest should be based on managing negative externalities. Using data from Ireland, we find that the observed geographical pattern of impact fees is inconsistent with the economic rationale for them. A simple econometric model of the number of telecoms masts in each county also suggests that the level of impact fees is negatively associated with mast deployment. This paper also examines other regulatory factors that affect the provision of new infrastructure. We find wide regional variation in these regulations but are unable to quantify their impact on infrastructure provision. Such regulatory complexity places extra compliance burdens on private operators, which may in turn distort the level and regional pattern of network investment. We suggest further regional harmonisation of development policy towards telecoms infrastructure to avoid exacerbating regional disparities in rollout of services

How impact fees and local planning regulation can influence deployment of telecoms infrastructure

This paper examines how local government planning regulations and charges affect the deployment of telecommunications infrastructure. We explore the economic rationale for local government regulation of such infrastructure, which we suggest should be based on managing negative externalities. Using data from Ireland, we find that the observed geographical pattern of impact fees is inconsistent with the economic rationale for them. A simple econometric model of the number of telecoms masts in each county also suggests that the level of impact fees is negatively associated with mast deployment. This paper also examines other regulatory factors that affect the provision of new infrastructure. We find wide regional variation in these regulations but are unable to quantify their impact on infrastructure provision. Such regulatory complexity places extra compliance burdens on private operators, which may in turn distort the level and regional pattern of network investment. We suggest further regional harmonisation of development policy towards telecoms infrastructure to avoid exacerbating regional disparities in rollout of services