Decadal predictions with the HiGEM high resolution global coupled climate model: description and basic evaluation

This paper describes the development and basic evaluation of decadal predictions produced using the HiGEM coupled climate model. HiGEM is a higher resolution version of the HadGEM1 Met Office Unified Model. The horizontal resolution in HiGEM has been increased to 1.25◦ × 0.83◦ in longitude and latitude for the atmosphere, and 1/3◦ × 1/3◦ globally for the ocean. The HiGEM decadal predictions are initialised using an anomaly assimilation scheme that relaxes anomalies of ocean temperature and salinity to observed anomalies. 10 year hindcasts are produced for 10 start dates (1960, 1965,..., 2000, 2005). To determine the relative contributions to prediction skill from initial conditions and external forcing, the HiGEM decadal predictions are compared to uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments. The HiGEM decadal predictions have substantial skill for predictions of annual mean surface air temperature and 100 m upper ocean temperature. For lead times up to 10 years, anomaly correlations (ACC) over large areas of the North Atlantic Ocean, the Western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean exceed values of 0.6. Initialisation of the HiGEM decadal predictions significantly increases skill over regions of the Atlantic Ocean,the Maritime Continent and regions of the subtropical North and South Pacific Ocean. In particular, HiGEM produces skillful predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre for up to 4 years lead time (with ACC > 0.7), which are significantly larger than the uninitialised HiGEM transient experiments

Autocrine PDGF stimulation in malignancies

Platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) isoforms are important mitogens for different types of mesenchymal cells, which have important functions during the embryonal development and in the adult during wound healing and tissue homeostasis. In tumors, PDGF isoforms are often over-expressed and contribute to the growth of both normal and malignant cells. This review focuses on tumors expressing PDGF isoforms together with their tyrosine kinase receptors, thus resulting in autocrine stimulation of growth and survival. Patients with such tumors could benefit from treatment with inhibitors of either PDGF or PDGF receptors

An empirical model for probabilistic decadal prediction: global attribution and regional hindcasts

Empirical models, designed to predict surface variables over seasons to decades ahead, provide useful benchmarks for comparison against the performance of dynamical forecast systems; they may also be employable as predictive tools for use by climate services in their own right. A new global empirical decadal prediction system is presented, based on a multiple linear regression approach designed to produce probabilistic output for comparison against dynamical models. A global attribution is performed initially to identify the important forcing and predictor components of the model . Ensemble hindcasts of surface air temperature anomaly fields are then generated, based on the forcings and predictors identified as important, under a series of different prediction ‘modes’ and their performance is evaluated. The modes include a real-time setting, a scenario in which future volcanic forcings are prescribed during the hindcasts, and an approach which exploits knowledge of the forced trend. A two-tier prediction system, which uses knowledge of future sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, is also tested, but within a perfect knowledge framework. Each mode is designed to identify sources of predictability and uncertainty, as well as investigate different approaches to the design of decadal prediction systems for operational use. It is found that the empirical model shows skill above that of persistence hindcasts for annual means at lead times of up to 10 years ahead in all of the prediction modes investigated. It is suggested that hindcasts which exploit full knowledge of the forced trend due to increasing greenhouse gases throughout the hindcast period can provide more robust estimates of model bias for the calibration of the empirical model in an operational setting. The two-tier system shows potential for improved real-time prediction, given the assumption that skilful predictions of large-scale modes of variability are available. The empirical model framework has been designed with enough flexibility to facilitate further developments, including the prediction of other surface variables and the ability to incorporate additional predictors within the model that are shown to contribute significantly to variability at the local scale. It is also semi-operational in the sense that forecasts have been produced for the coming decade and can be updated when additional data becomes available

Osteochondral defects in the ankle: why painful?

Osteochondral defects of the ankle can either heal and remain asymptomatic or progress to deep ankle pain on weight bearing and formation of subchondral bone cysts. The development of a symptomatic OD depends on various factors, including the damage and insufficient repair of the subchondral bone plate. The ankle joint has a high congruency. During loading, compressed cartilage forces its water into the microfractured subchondral bone, leading to a localized high increased flow and pressure of fluid in the subchondral bone. This will result in local osteolysis and can explain the slow development of a subchondral cyst. The pain does not arise from the cartilage lesion, but is most probably caused by repetitive high fluid pressure during walking, which results in stimulation of the highly innervated subchondral bone underneath the cartilage defect. Understanding the natural history of osteochondral defects could lead to the development of strategies for preventing progressive joint damage

The role of the extrinsic thoracic limb muscles in equine locomotion

Muscles have two major roles in locomotion: to generate force and to absorb/generate power (do work). Economical force generation is achieved by short-fibred pennate muscle while the maximum power output of a muscle is architecture independent. In this study we tested the hypothesis that there is an anatomical and structural separation between the force-generating anti-gravity muscles and the propulsive (limb/trunk moving) muscles of the equine forelimb. Muscle mass and fascicle length measurements were made on the thoracic limb extrinsic muscles of six fresh horse cadavers. Physiological cross-sectional area and maximum isometric force were then estimated. Maximum power was estimated from muscle volume and published contraction velocity data. The majority of extrinsic forelimb muscles were large with long fascicles arranged in parallel to the long axis of the muscle. Muscles arranged in this way are optimised for doing work. The architecture of serratus ventralis thoracis (SVT) was unique. It had short (48 ± 17 mm) fascicles, arranged at about 45° to the long axis of the muscle, which would suggest a force-generating, anti-gravity role. The muscle belly of SVT was sandwiched between two broad, thick sheets of aponeurosis. Hence, SVT could make a significant contribution to the overall elastic properties of the thoracic limb