Patterns and Perceptions of Climate Change in a Biodiversity Conservation Hotspot

Quantifying local people's perceptions to climate change, and their assessments of which changes matter, is fundamental to addressing the dual challenge of land conservation and poverty alleviation in densely populated tropical regions To develop appropriate policies and responses, it will be important not only to anticipate the nature of expected changes, but also how they are perceived, interpreted and adapted to by local residents. The Albertine Rift region in East Africa is one of the world's most threatened biodiversity hotspots due to dense smallholder agriculture, high levels of land and resource pressures, and habitat loss and conversion. Results of three separate household surveys conducted in the vicinity of Kibale National Park during the late 2000s indicate that farmers are concerned with variable precipitation. Many survey respondents reported that conditions are drier and rainfall timing is becoming less predictable. Analysis of daily rainfall data for the climate normal period 1981 to 2010 indicates that total rainfall both within and across seasons has not changed significantly, although the timing and transitions of seasons has been highly variable. Results of rainfall data analysis also indicate significant changes in the intra-seasonal rainfall distribution, including longer dry periods within rainy seasons, which may contribute to the perceived decrease in rainfall and can compromise food security. Our results highlight the need for fine-scale climate information to assist agro-ecological communities in developing effective adaptive management

Transplacentally Acquired Maternal Antibody against Hepatitis B Surface Antigen in Infants and its Influence on the Response to Hepatitis B Vaccine

BACKGROUND: Passively acquired maternal antibodies in infants may inhibit active immune responses to vaccines. Whether maternal antibody against hepatitis B surface antigen (anti-HBs) in infants may influence the long-term immunogenicity of hepatitis B vaccine remains unknown. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Totally 338 pairs of mothers and children were enrolled. All infants were routinely vaccinated against hepatitis B based on 0-, 1- and 6-month schedule. We characterized the transplacental transfer of maternal anti-HBs, and compared anti-HBs response in children of mothers with or without anti-HBs. In a prospective observation, all 63 anti-HBs positive mothers transferred anti-HBs to their infants; 84.1% of the infants had higher anti-HBs concentrations than their mothers. One and half years after vaccination with three doses of hepatitis B vaccine, the positive rate and geometric mean concentration (GMC) of anti-HBs in 32 infants with maternal anti-HBs were comparable with those in 32 infants without maternal antibody (90.6% vs 87.5%, P = 0.688, and 74.5 vs 73.5 mIU/ml, P = 0.742, respectively). In a retrospective analysis, five and half years after vaccination with three doses vaccine, the positive rates of anti-HBs in 88 children of mothers with anti-HBs ≥1000 mIU/ml, 94 children of mothers with anti-HBs 10-999 mIU/ml, and 61 children of mothers with anti-HBs <10 mIU/ml were 72.7%, 69.2%, and 63.9% (P = 0.521), respectively; anti-HBs GMC in these three groups were 38.9, 43.9, and 31.7 mIU/ml (P = 0.726), respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The data demonstrate that maternal anti-HBs in infants, even at high concentrations, does not inhibit the long-term immunogenicity of hepatitis B vaccine. Thus, current hepatitis B vaccination schedule for infants will be still effective in the future when most infants are positive for maternal anti-HBs due to the massive vaccination against hepatitis B

A review of data needed to parameterize a dynamic model of measles in developing countries

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Dynamic models of infection transmission can project future disease burden within a population. Few dynamic measles models have been developed for low-income countries, where measles disease burden is highest. Our objective was to review the literature on measles epidemiology in low-income countries, with a particular focus on data that are needed to parameterize dynamic models.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We included age-stratified case reporting and seroprevalence studies with fair to good sample sizes for mostly urban African and Indian populations. We emphasized studies conducted before widespread immunization. We summarized age-stratified attack rates and seroprevalence profiles across these populations. Using the study data, we fitted a "representative" seroprevalence profile for African and Indian settings. We also used a catalytic model to estimate the age-dependent force of infection for individual African and Indian studies where seroprevalence was surveyed. We used these data to quantify the effects of population density on the basic reproductive number <it>R</it>₀.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The peak attack rate usually occurred at age 1 year in Africa, and 1 to 2 years in India, which is earlier than in developed countries before mass vaccination. Approximately 60% of children were seropositive for measles antibody by age 2 in Africa and India, according to the representative seroprevalence profiles. A statistically significant decline in the force of infection with age was found in 4 of 6 Indian seroprevalence studies, but not in 2 African studies. This implies that the classic threshold result describing the critical proportion immune (<it>p</it>_c) required to eradicate an infectious disease, <it>p</it>_c= 1-1/<it>R</it>₀, may overestimate the required proportion immune to eradicate measles in some developing country populations. A possible, though not statistically significant, positive relation between population density and <it>R</it>₀for various Indian and African populations was also found. These populations also showed a similar pattern of waning of maternal antibodies. Attack rates in rural Indian populations show little dependence on vaccine coverage or population density compared to urban Indian populations. Estimated <it>R</it>₀values varied widely across populations which has further implications for measles elimination.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>It is possible to develop a broadly informative dynamic model of measles transmission in low-income country settings based on existing literature, though it may be difficult to develop a model that is closely tailored to any given country. Greater efforts to collect data specific to low-income countries would aid in control efforts by allowing highly population-specific models to be developed.</p

Park isolation in anthropogenic landscapes: land change and livelihoods at park boundaries in the African Albertine Rift

Landscapes are changing rapidly in regions where rural people live adjacent to protected parks and reserves. This is the case in highland East Africa, where many parks are increasingly isolated in a matrix of small farms and settlements. In this review, we synthesize published findings and extant data sources to assess the processes and outcomes of park isolation, with a regional focus on people’s livelihoods at park boundaries in the Ugandan Albertine Rift. The region maintains exceptionally high rural population density and growth and is classified as a global biodiversity hotspot. In addition to the impacts of increasing numbers of people, our synthesis highlights compounding factors—changing climate, increasing land value and variable tenure, and declining farm yields—that accelerate effects of population growth on park isolation and widespread landscape change. Unpacking these processes at the regional scale identifies outcomes of isolation in the unprotected landscape—high frequency of human-wildlife conflict, potential for zoonotic disease transmission, land and resource competition, and declining wildlife populations in forest fragments. We recommend a strategy for the management of isolated parks that includes augmenting outreach by park authorities and supporting community needs in the human landscape, for example through healthcare services, while also maintaining hard park boundaries through traditional protectionism. Even in cases where conservation refers to biodiversity in isolated parks, landscape strategies must include an understanding of the local livelihood context in order to ensure long-term sustainable biodiversity protection

Hyperbolic Discounting with Environmental Outcomes across Time, Space, and Probability

Environmental discounting is a potentially important research area for climate change mitigation. We aimed to replicate and extend earlier work on the discounting of a negative environmental outcome. We measured ratings of concern, and willingness to act to mitigate, an outcome involving air pollution that would hypothetically affect the garden and drinking water of the participants over psychological distance represented by temporal (1 month, 6 months, and 1, 3, 5, 10, and 80 years), spatial (5, 20, 50, 100, 1000, and 5000 km), and probabilistic (95%, 90%, 50%, 30%, 10%, and 5% likelihood) dimensions. For our data from 224 first-year psychology students, of four potential models (an exponential, simple hyperbolic, and two hyperboloid functions), the Rachlin hyperboloid was the best-fitting model describing ratings of concern and action across all three dimensions. Willingness to act was discounted more steeply than concern across all dimensions. There was little difference in discounting for outcomes described as human-caused rather than natural, except that willingness to act was discounted more steeply than concern for human-caused environmental outcomes compared to natural outcomes across spatial (and, less conclusively, temporal) distance. Presenting values of the three dimensions in random or progressive order had little effect on the results. Our results reflect the often-reported attitudebehavior gap whereby people maintain concern about a negative event over dimensions of psychological distance, but their willingness to act to mitigate the event is lower and more steeply discounted