Habitat-use influences severe disease-mediated population declines in two of the most common garden bird species in Great Britain

The influence of supplementary feeding of wildlife on disease transmission and its consequent impacts on population dynamics are underappreciated. In Great Britain, supplementary feeding is hypothesised to have enabled the spread of the protozoan parasite, Trichomonas gallinae, from columbids to finches, leading to epidemic finch trichomonosis and a rapid population decline of greenfinch (Chloris chloris). More recently, chaffinch (Fringilla coelebs), has also declined markedly from the second to fifth commonest bird in Britain. Using citizen science data, we show that both declines were driven primarily by reduced adult survival, with the greatest reductions occurring in peri-domestic habitats, where supplementary food provision is common. Post-mortem examinations showed a proportional increase in chaffinch trichomonosis cases, near-contemporaneous with its population decline. Like greenfinches, chaffinches often use supplementary food, but are less associated with human habitation. Our results support the hypothesis that supplementary feeding can increase parasite transmission frequency within and between common species. However, the dynamics behind resultant population change can vary markedly, highlighting the need for integrating disease surveillance with demographic monitoring. Other species susceptible to T. gallinae infection may also be at risk. Supplementary feeding guidelines for wildlife should include disease mitigation strategies to ensure that benefits to target species outweigh risks

Simulation modeling for stratified breast cancer screening : a systematic review of cost and quality of life assumptions

BACKGROUND: The economic evaluation of stratified breast cancer screening gains momentum, but produces also very diverse results. Systematic reviews so far focused on modeling techniques and epidemiologic assumptions. However, cost and utility parameters received only little attention. This systematic review assesses simulation models for stratified breast cancer screening based on their cost and utility parameters in each phase of breast cancer screening and care. METHODS: A literature review was conducted to compare economic evaluations with simulation models of personalized breast cancer screening. Study quality was assessed using reporting guidelines. Cost and utility inputs were extracted, standardized and structured using a care delivery framework. Studies were then clustered according to their study aim and parameters were compared within the clusters. RESULTS: Eighteen studies were identified within three study clusters. Reporting quality was very diverse in all three clusters. Only two studies in cluster 1, four studies in cluster 2 and one study in cluster 3 scored high in the quality appraisal. In addition to the quality appraisal, this review assessed if the simulation models were consistent in integrating all relevant phases of care, if utility parameters were consistent and methodological sound and if cost were compatible and consistent in the actual parameters used for screening, diagnostic work up and treatment. Of 18 studies, only three studies did not show signs of potential bias. CONCLUSION: This systematic review shows that a closer look into the cost and utility parameter can help to identify potential bias. Future simulation models should focus on integrating all relevant phases of care, using methodologically sound utility parameters and avoiding inconsistent cost parameters

Use of anthropogenic material affects bird nest arthropod community structure: influence of urbanisation, and consequences for ectoparasites and fledging success

Nests are a critically important factor in determining the breeding success of many species of birds. Nevertheless, we have surprisingly little understanding of how local environment helps shape materials used in construction, how this differs among related species using similar nest sites, or if materials used directly or indirectly influence the numbers of offspring successfully reared. We also have little understanding of any potential links between nest construction and the assemblage of invertebrates which inhabit the nest and in particular, with ectoparasites. We addressed these questions by monitoring the success rates of nest-box using Blue Tits Cyanistes caeruleus and Great Tits Parus major, from rural, urban greenspace and urban garden settings. We collected used nests, identified arthropods present, and measured the proportions of highly processed anthropogenic materials used in their construction. Some 25% of Great Tit nest materials were of an anthropogenic source and this was consistent across habitats, while Blue Tits used little (1-2%) except in gardens (~16%), suggesting that Great Tits preferentially sought out these materials. In fledged nests, increasing use of anthropogenic material was associated with lower general arthropod diversity and ectoparasite predator abundance (Blue Tits only) but higher levels of Siphonapterans (fleas). Higher arthropod diversity was associated with lower flea numbers, suggesting that increased diversity played a role in limiting flea numbers. No direct link was found between breeding success and either anthropogenic material usage, or arthropod diversity and abundance. However, breeding success declined with increasing urbanisation in both species and increased with nest weight in Blue Tits. The interplay between urbanisation and bird ecology is complex; our work shows that subtle anthropogenic influences may have indirect and unexpected consequences for urban birds