A Bayesian geoadditive relative survival analysis of registry data on breast cancer mortality

In this paper we develop a so called relative survival analysis, that is used to model the excess risk of a certain subpopulation relative to the natural mortality risk, i.e. the base risk that is present in the whole population. Such models are typically used in the area of clinical studies, that aim at identifying prognostic factors for disease specific mortality with data on specific causes of death being not available. Our work has been motivated by continuous-time spatially referenced survival data on breast cancer where causes of death are not known. This paper forms an extension of the analyses presented in Sauleau et al. (2007), where those data are analysed via a geoadditive, semiparametric approach, however without allowance to incorporate natural mortality. The usefulness of this relative survival approach is supported by means of a simulated data set

Estimation and extrapolation of time trends in registry data---Borrowing strength from related populations

To analyze and project age-specific mortality or morbidity rates age-period-cohort (APC) models are very popular. Bayesian approaches facilitate estimation and improve predictions by assigning smoothing priors to age, period and cohort effects. Adjustments for overdispersion are straightforward using additional random effects. When rates are further stratified, for example, by countries, multivariate APC models can be used, where differences of stratum-specific effects are interpretable as log relative risks. Here, we incorporate correlated stratum-specific smoothing priors and correlated overdispersion parameters into the multivariate APC model, and use Markov chain Monte Carlo and integrated nested Laplace approximations for inference. Compared to a model without correlation, the new approach may lead to more precise relative risk estimates, as shown in an application to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality in three regions of England and Wales. Furthermore, the imputation of missing data for one particular stratum may be improved, since the new approach takes advantage of the remaining strata if the corresponding observations are available there. This is shown in an application to female mortality in Denmark, Sweden and Norway from the 20th century, where we treat for each country in turn either the first or second half of the observations as missing and then impute the omitted data. The projections are compared to those obtained from a univariate APC model and an extended Lee--Carter demographic forecasting approach using the proper Dawid--Sebastiani scoring rule.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS498 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The Certification of the Mass Fractions of Arsenic, Cadmium, Nickel and Lead in Fine Dust (PM10-like matrix) - Certified Reference Material ERM®-CZ120

This report describes the preparation and certification of the new Reference Material (CRM) ERM-CZ120, which is a PM10-like fine dust, certified for the elements arsenic, cadmium, nickel and lead. Certification of the CRM included testing of the homogeneity and stability of the material as well as the characterisation using an intercomparison approach. The main purpose of the material is to assess method performance, i.e. for checking accuracy of analytical results in the field of air quality control/measurement. As any reference material, it can also be used for control charts or validation studies.JRC.DG.D.2-Reference material

Certification of the Mass Concentrations of Calcium, Chloride, Magnesium, Ortho-Phosphate, Potassium, Sodium and of pH and Conductivity in Groundwater - Certified Reference Material ERM®-CA616

This report presents the preparation and certification of the groundwater certified reference material ERM-CA616. All the steps required for the production of this water-matrix certified reference material are described in detail, from the sampling of natural groundwater until the characterisation exercise that lead to the final assignment of the certified values, following ISO Guide 34:2009 [1] and ISO Guide 35:2006 [2]. Homogeneity and stability of the water material were investigated with dedicated studies and the certification campaign for the material characterisation was based on an inter-comparison among several experienced laboratories. IRMM organised and coordinated all the phases of this project and carried out the evaluation of data. The certified values were calculated as the unweighted mean of the laboratory means of the accepted sets of results for each parameter, see below. Uncertainties were calculated in compliance with the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM, ISO/IEC Guide 98-3:2008) [3]. The stated expanded uncertainties include contributions from characterisation, homogeneity and stability.JRC.DG.D.2-Reference material

CERTIFICATION REPORT: The certification of the mass fractions of PBDEs in Fish Tissue: ERM®-CE102

This report describes the production of ERM®-CE102, which is a fish tissue certified for the mass fraction of polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs) on a wet weight basis. This material was produced following ISO 17034:2016 and is certified in accordance with ISO Guide 35:2017. The Certified Reference Material is a fish tissue homogenate prepared from wild Wels catfish (Silurus glanis) originating from the Flix reservoir of the Ebro river (Spain) and aquaculture rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) sourced in Belgium. The fish fillets were cut, shock-frozen in liquid nitrogen and cryogenically milled. After a pre-cooking step, a step-wise mixing and homogenisation were carried out. The resulting material was filled into jars, autoclaved for sterilisation and labelled as ERM-CE102. Between unit-homogeneity was quantified and stability during dispatch and storage were assessed in accordance with ISO Guide 35:2017 [2]. Within-unit homogeneity was quantified to determine the minimum sample intake. The material was characterised by an interlaboratory comparison of laboratories of demonstrated competence and adhering to ISO/IEC 17025. Technically invalid results were removed but no outlier was eliminated on statistical grounds only. Uncertainties of the certified values were calculated in accordance with the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) and include uncertainties related to possible inhomogeneity, instability and characterisation. The material is intended for the quality control and assessment of method performance. As with any reference material, it can be used for establishing control charts or in validation studies. ERM-CE102 is available in glass jars with twist-off lids containing at least 40 g of fish paste. The minimum amount of sample to be used is 8 g.JRC.F.6-Reference Material

CERTIFICATION REPORT The certification of the mass fraction of arsenobetaine in water: ERM®-AC626

This report describes the production of ERM-AC626, an aqueous solution material certified for the mass fraction of arsenobetaine (AB). The material was produced following ISO Guide 34:2009. The starting material was 10 g of solid AB monohydrate. The purity of AB was assessed through measurements carried out by laboratories of demonstrated competence and within the scope of accreditation to ISO/IEC 17025:2005. An aqueous solution was prepared and ampouled into 2 mL amber glass ampoules under argon atmosphere. Between unit-homogeneity was quantified and stability during dispatch and storage were assessed in accordance with ISO Guide 35:2006. Due to the inherent homogeneity of water solutions, determination of minimum sample intake (within-unit homogeneity) was not required. The sample intake used in the homogeneity study was adopted as the recommended minimum sample intake. The minimum sample intake is 50 µg. The certified value was obtained from the gravimetric preparation of the solution, taking into account the purity of the starting material. The certified value was confirmed by independent analyses carried out by laboratories of demonstrated competence and adhering to ISO/IEC 17025. Uncertainties of the certified values were calculated in compliance with the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) and include uncertainties related to possible inhomogeneity and instability and to characterisation. The material is intended to be used as a calibrant and quality control sample. The CRM is available in amber glass ampoules containing 1 mL of AB aqueous solution closed under argon atmosphere. The minimum amount of sample to be used is 50 µg. The CRM was accepted as European Reference Material (ERM®) after peer evaluation by the partners of the European Reference Materials consortium.JRC.F.6-Reference Material

CERTIFICATION REPORT: The certification of the cold filter plugging point (CFPP) and cloud point (CP) in automotive diesel fuel containing a volume fraction of 7 % biodiesel: ERM®-EF004

This report describes the production of ERM®-EF004, which is an automotive diesel fuel material containing a volume fraction of 7 % fatty acid methyl ester (biodiesel) certified for the cold filter plugging point and the cloud point. This material was produced following ISO Guide 34:2009 and is certified in accordance with ISO Guide 35:2006. The material is an automotive diesel fuel containing a volume fraction of approximately 7 % biodiesel that is based on rapeseed oil fatty acid methyl ester with the addition of 1 g/kg antioxidant (butylhydroxytoluene). It was provided by a producer in Germany. The material was filled in amber glass ampoules. Between unit-homogeneity was quantified and stability during dispatch and storage were assessed in accordance with ISO Guide 35:2006 [ ]. Within-unit homogeneity was not quantified as the minimum sample intake is defined by the required sample volume stipulated in the respective documentary standard and comprises almost the whole volume of the two ampoules of every unit. The material was characterised by an interlaboratory comparison of laboratories of demonstrated competence and adhering to ISO/IEC 17025:2005). Technically invalid results were removed but no outlier was eliminated on statistical grounds only. Uncertainties of the certified values were calculated in accordance with the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) [ ] and include uncertainties related to possible inhomogeneity, instability and characterisation. The material is intended for quality control and assessment of method performance. As with any reference material, it can be used for establishing control charts or validation studies. The certified reference material (CRM) is available in sets of two amber glass ampoules, each containing 27 mL of automotive diesel fuel material with a volume fraction of 7 % biodiesel closed under argon atmosphere.JRC.F.6-Reference Material