A Bayesian geoadditive relative survival analysis of registry data on breast cancer mortality

In this paper we develop a so called relative survival analysis, that is used to model the excess risk of a certain subpopulation relative to the natural mortality risk, i.e. the base risk that is present in the whole population. Such models are typically used in the area of clinical studies, that aim at identifying prognostic factors for disease specific mortality with data on specific causes of death being not available. Our work has been motivated by continuous-time spatially referenced survival data on breast cancer where causes of death are not known. This paper forms an extension of the analyses presented in Sauleau et al. (2007), where those data are analysed via a geoadditive, semiparametric approach, however without allowance to incorporate natural mortality. The usefulness of this relative survival approach is supported by means of a simulated data set

Certification of the mass fractions of As, B, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se, Sn and Zn in rye grass - Certified Reference Material ERM®-CD281

This report describes the preparation and certification of the rye grass Certified Reference Material (CRM) ERM-CD281. This CRM replaces the exhausted predecessor BCR-281. ERM-CD281 was processed and certified by the European Commission, Directorate General Joint Research Centre, Institute for Reference Materials and Measurements (IRMM), Geel, Belgium. Certification of the CRM included testing of the homogeneity and stability of the material as well as the characterisation using an intercomparison approach. ERM-CD281 has been certified for its content of As, B, Cd, Cr, Cu, Hg, Mn, Mo, Ni, Pb, Sb, Se, Sn and Zn. The main purpose of the material is to assess method performance, i.e. for checking accuracy of analytical results. As any reference material, it can also be used for control charts or validation studies.JRC.DG.D.2-Reference material

Certification of Mass Fractions of Polychlorinated Biphenyls (PCBs 28, 52, 74, 99, 101, 105, 110, 118, 138, 149, 153, 156, 177, 180, 183, 187, 194 and 196) in Fish Oil - Certified Reference Material ERM®-BB350

This report describes the preparation of a salmon oil matrix certified reference material (ERM-BB350) and the certification of the content (mass fraction) of a selection of polychlorinated biphenyls (Nos. 28, 52, 74, 99, 101, 105, 110, 118, 138, 149, 153, 156, 177, 180, 183, 187, 194 and 196). Certification of the CRM included testing of the homogeneity and stability of the material as well as the characterisation using an inter-comparison approach. The main purpose of the material is to assess method performance, i.e. for checking accuracy of analytical results. As any reference material, the CRM can also be used for control charts or validation studies. Uncertainties were calculated in compliance with the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) [1] and include uncertainties due to possible heterogeneity, instability and characterisation. The certified values for the mass fractions of PCBs are traceable to the SIJRC.DG.D.2-Reference material

Estimation and extrapolation of time trends in registry data---Borrowing strength from related populations

To analyze and project age-specific mortality or morbidity rates age-period-cohort (APC) models are very popular. Bayesian approaches facilitate estimation and improve predictions by assigning smoothing priors to age, period and cohort effects. Adjustments for overdispersion are straightforward using additional random effects. When rates are further stratified, for example, by countries, multivariate APC models can be used, where differences of stratum-specific effects are interpretable as log relative risks. Here, we incorporate correlated stratum-specific smoothing priors and correlated overdispersion parameters into the multivariate APC model, and use Markov chain Monte Carlo and integrated nested Laplace approximations for inference. Compared to a model without correlation, the new approach may lead to more precise relative risk estimates, as shown in an application to chronic obstructive pulmonary disease mortality in three regions of England and Wales. Furthermore, the imputation of missing data for one particular stratum may be improved, since the new approach takes advantage of the remaining strata if the corresponding observations are available there. This is shown in an application to female mortality in Denmark, Sweden and Norway from the 20th century, where we treat for each country in turn either the first or second half of the observations as missing and then impute the omitted data. The projections are compared to those obtained from a univariate APC model and an extended Lee--Carter demographic forecasting approach using the proper Dawid--Sebastiani scoring rule.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/11-AOAS498 the Annals of Applied Statistics (http://www.imstat.org/aoas/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

The Certification of the Mass Fractions of Selected Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) in Fine Dust (PM10-like Matrix) - Certified Reference Material ERM®-CZ100

This report describes the preparation and certification of the new Reference Material (CRM) ERM-CZ100 PAHs in fine dust (PM10-like). Certification of the CRM included testing of the homogeneity and stability of the material as well as the characterisation using an intercomparison approach. ERM-CZ100 was certified for its content of benzo[a]anthracene, benzo[b]fluoranthene, benzo[k]fluoranthene, benzo[j]fluoranthene, benzo[a]pyrene, indeno[1,2,3-c,d]pyrene, dibenzo[a,h]anthracene and sum of benzo[b]fluoranthene, benzo[k]fluoranthene and benzo[j]fluoranthene. The main purpose of the material is to assess method performance, i.e. for checking accuracy of analytical results in the field of air quality assurance. As any reference material, it can also be used for control charts or validation studies.JRC.DG.D.2-Reference material

The Certification of the Mass Fractions of Arsenic, Cadmium, Nickel and Lead in Fine Dust (PM10-like matrix) - Certified Reference Material ERM®-CZ120

This report describes the preparation and certification of the new Reference Material (CRM) ERM-CZ120, which is a PM10-like fine dust, certified for the elements arsenic, cadmium, nickel and lead. Certification of the CRM included testing of the homogeneity and stability of the material as well as the characterisation using an intercomparison approach. The main purpose of the material is to assess method performance, i.e. for checking accuracy of analytical results in the field of air quality control/measurement. As any reference material, it can also be used for control charts or validation studies.JRC.DG.D.2-Reference material

Development of Particulate Matter Certified Reference Materials (PM10 CRMs) - Final Report

The present report summarises the work carried out within the feasibility study devoted to the development of particulate matter certified reference materials (PM10 CRMs) at the RM Unit of IRMM. At present there is no suitable PM10 CRM certified for elements and/or PAHs. Therefore, this project was aimed at developing a CRM, which will play an active tool in the implementation of the Air Quality Framework Directive and its 1st and 4th Daughter Directives. In order to establish the target characteristics for the future PM10 CRMs, a meeting with experts in the field of air quality was organised. This report includes decisions made during that meeting.JRC.D.2-Reference material

Determination of Short-Chain Chlorinated Paraffins by Carbon Skeleton Gas Chromatography

Short-Chain Chlorinated Paraffins (SCCPs) are highly complex technical mixtures of polychlorinated n-alkanes with a chlorination degree between 50 and 70 % by mass, and a linear carbon chain length from C10 to C13, constituted by thousands of homologues, diastereomers and enantiomers. They have been used in many different applications, such as extreme pressure additives in lubricants and cutting fluids, plasticizers in PVC, and flame retardants in paints, adhesives and sealants. SCCPs are toxic towards aquatic organisms, bioaccumulative and persistent, and therefore the concern about this class of pollutants has increased in the last few years. In 2000 the European Union has included SCCPs in the list of priority substances in the field of water policy, amending the Water Framework Directive (WFD) 2000/60/EC. The implementation of the directive requires that laboratories should be able to measure such substances reliably at the level of the environmental quality standard (EQS). Unfortunately, this is not the case for SCCPs. The analytical tools currently available for the analysis of this class of compounds are scarce and no methodology has been fully validated. This is due to the complexity of their mixtures, and the lack of pure solutions for calibrations as well as matrix-matched reference materials. No routine method for monitoring purposes exists and a poor comparability of results was demonstrated. At present determination of SCCPs is mostly performed by mass spectrometry (MS) in the Electron Capture Negative Ionisation (ECNI) mode. The quantification relies on the monitoring of [M-Cl]- ions of specific mass to charge (m/z) ratio for each SCCP group according to the method developed by Tomy et al. This approach is prone to interferences from other chlorinated compounds and from medium chain chlorinated paraffins, therefore a thorough clean-up of the sample and a careful selection of the ions to be detected are necessary. The method is also affected by a strong dependence on the degree of chlorination of the standard used for calibration. Errors of up to 1100 % have been reported when the calibrant does not match the chlorination degree of the sample. An alternative approach for SCCPs determination is the carbon skeleton gas chromatography (GC)-MS in which chlorinated paraffins are catalytic hydrodechlorinated to the corresponding n-alkanes (see Figure 1). Information on the chlorination degree is lost, but accurate quantification is possible. In this paper the two approaches are compared, and some preliminary results in the determination of SCCPs in water samples with the carbon skeleton method are presented.JRC.DG.D.2-Reference material

Certification of the Mass Concentrations of Calcium, Chloride, Magnesium, Ortho-Phosphate, Potassium, Sodium and of pH and Conductivity in Groundwater - Certified Reference Material ERM®-CA616

This report presents the preparation and certification of the groundwater certified reference material ERM-CA616. All the steps required for the production of this water-matrix certified reference material are described in detail, from the sampling of natural groundwater until the characterisation exercise that lead to the final assignment of the certified values, following ISO Guide 34:2009 [1] and ISO Guide 35:2006 [2]. Homogeneity and stability of the water material were investigated with dedicated studies and the certification campaign for the material characterisation was based on an inter-comparison among several experienced laboratories. IRMM organised and coordinated all the phases of this project and carried out the evaluation of data. The certified values were calculated as the unweighted mean of the laboratory means of the accepted sets of results for each parameter, see below. Uncertainties were calculated in compliance with the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM, ISO/IEC Guide 98-3:2008) [3]. The stated expanded uncertainties include contributions from characterisation, homogeneity and stability.JRC.DG.D.2-Reference material