The interaction of transmission intensity, mortality, and the economy: a retrospective analysis of the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused over 6.4 million registered deaths to date, and has had a profound impact on economic activity. Here, we study the interaction of transmission, mortality, and the economy during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic from January 2020 to December 2022 across 25 European countries. We adopt a Bayesian vector autoregressive model with both fixed and random effects. We find that increases in disease transmission intensity decreases Gross domestic product (GDP) and increases daily excess deaths, with a longer lasting impact on excess deaths in comparison to GDP, which recovers more rapidly. Broadly, our results reinforce the intuitive phenomenon that significant economic activity arises from diverse person-to-person interactions. We report on the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on transmission intensity, excess deaths and changes in GDP, and resulting implications for policy makers. Our results highlight a complex cost-benefit trade off from individual NPIs. For example, banning international travel increases GDP however reduces excess deaths. We consider country random effects and their associations with excess changes in GDP and excess deaths. For example, more developed countries in Europe typically had more cautious approaches to the COVID-19 pandemic, prioritising healthcare and excess deaths over economic performance. Long term economic impairments are not fully captured by our model, as well as long term disease effects (Long Covid). Our results highlight that the impact of disease on a country is complex and multifaceted, and simple heuristic conclusions to extract the best outcome from the economy and disease burden are challenging

Coronary heart disease mortality in treated familial hypercholesterolaemia: Update of the UK Simon Broome FH register

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with familial hypercholesterolaemia (FH) have an elevated risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Here we compare changes in CHD mortality in patients with heterozygous (FH) pre 1992, before lipid-lowering therapy with statins was used routinely, and in the periods 1992–2008 and 2008–2016. METHODS: 1903 Definite (DFH) and 1650 Possible (PFH) patients (51% women) aged 20–79 years, recruited from 21 lipid clinics in the United Kingdom and followed prospectively between 1980 and 2016 for 67,060 person-years. The CHD standardised mortality ratio (SMR) compared to the population in England and Wales was calculated (with 95% Confidence intervals). RESULTS: There were 585 deaths, including 252 from CHD. Overall, the observed 2.4-fold excess coronary mortality for treated DFH post-1991 was significantly higher than the 1.78 excess for PFH (35% 95% CI 3%–76%). In patients with DFH and established coronary disease, there was a significant excess coronary mortality in all time periods, but in men it was reduced from a 4.83-fold excess (2.32–8.89) pre-1992 to 4.66 (3.46–6.14) in 1992–2008 and 2.51 (1.01–5.17) post-2008, while in women the corresponding values were 7.23 (2.65–15.73), 4.42 (2.70–6.82) and 6.34 (2.06–14.81). Primary prevention in men with DFH resulted in a progressive reduction in coronary mortality over the three time-periods, with no excess mortality evident post-2008 (0.89 (0.29–2.08)), although in women the excess persisted (post-2008 3.65 (1.75–6.72)). CONCLUSIONS: The results confirm the benefit of statin treatment in reducing CHD mortality, but suggest that FH patients with pre-existing CHD and women with FH may not be treated adequately

Urinary albumin/creatinine ratio tertiles predict risk of diabetic retinopathy progression: a natural history study from the Adolescent Cardio-Renal Intervention Trial (AdDIT) observational cohort

Aims/hypothesis: We hypothesised that adolescents with type 1 diabetes with a urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) in the upper tertile of the normal range (high ACR) are at greater risk of three-step diabetic retinopathy progression (3DR) independent of glycaemic control. Methods: This was a prospective observational study in 710 normoalbuminuric adolescents with type 1 diabetes from the non-intervention cohorts of the Adolescent Cardio-Renal Intervention Trial (AdDIT). Participants were classified as ‘high ACR’ or ‘low ACR’ (lowest and middle ACR tertiles) using baseline standardised log10 ACR. The primary outcome, 3DR, was determined from centrally graded, standardised two-field retinal photographs. 3DR risk was determined using multivariable Cox regression for the effect of high ACR, with HbA1c, BP, LDL-cholesterol and BMI as covariates; diabetes duration was the time-dependent variable. Results: At baseline mean ± SD age was 14.3 ± 1.6 years and mean ± SD diabetes duration was 7.2 ± 3.3 years. After a median of 3.2 years, 83/710 (12%) had developed 3DR. In multivariable analysis, high ACR (HR 2.1 [1.3, 3.3], p=0.001), higher mean IFCC HbA1c (HR 1.03 [1.01, 1.04], p=0.001) and higher baseline diastolic BP SD score (HR 1.43 [1.08, 1.89], p=0.01) were independently associated with 3DR risk. Conclusions/interpretation: High ACR is associated with greater risk of 3DR in adolescents, providing a target for future intervention studies

Telomeres are shorter in myocardial infarction patients compared to healthy subjects: correlation with environmental risk factors

Shorter telomeres have been reported in premature myocardial infarction (MI) patients. Our work aimed at confirming the association of shorter telomere with MI in two case–control studies and in familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) patients with coronary heart disease (CHD). The HIFMECH study compared 598 white male patients (<60 years) who survived a first MI and 653 age-matched controls from North and South Europe. Additionally, from the UK, 413 coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) patients and two groups of 367 and 94 FH patients, of whom 145 and 17 respectively had premature CHD, were recruited. Leukocyte telomere length (LTL) was measured using a real-time polymerase chain reaction-based method. In HIFMECH, LTL was significantly shorter in subjects from the North (7.99 kb, SD 4.51) compared to the South (8.27 kb, SD 4.14; p = 0.02) and in cases (7.85 kb, SD 4.01) compared to controls (8.04 kb, SD 4.46; p = 0.04). In the CABG study, LTL was significantly shorter (6.89 kb, SD 4.14) compared to the HIFMECH UK controls (7.53, SD 5.29; p = 0.007). In both samples of FH patients, LTL was shorter in those with CHD (overall 8.68 kb, SD 4.65) compared to the non-CHD subjects (9.23 kb, SD 4.83; p = 0.012). Apart from a consistent negative correlation with age, LTL was not associated across studies with any measured CHD risk factors. The present data confirms that subjects with CHD have shorter telomeres than controls and extends this to those with monogenic and polygenic forms of CHD

Vascular Effects of ACE (Angiotensin-Converting Enzyme) Inhibitors and Statins in Adolescents With Type 1 Diabetes

An increased albumin-creatinine ratio within the normal range can identify adolescents at higher risk of developing adverse cardio-renal outcomes as they progress into adulthood. Utilizing a parallel randomized controlled trial and observational cohort study, we characterized the progression of vascular phenotypes throughout this important period and investigated the effect of ACE (angiotensin-converting enzyme) inhibitors and statins in high-risk adolescents. Endothelial function (flow-mediated dilation and reactive hyperemia index) and arterial stiffness (carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity) were assessed in 158 high-risk participants recruited to a randomized, double-blind placebo-controlled 2×2 factorial trial (randomized, placebo-controlled trial) of ACE inhibitors and/or statins in adolescents with type 1 diabetes (AdDIT [Adolescent Type 1 Diabetes cardio-renal Intervention Trial]). Identical measures were also assessed in 215 lower-risk individuals recruited to a parallel observational study. In the randomized, placebo-controlled trial, high-risk patients randomized to ACE inhibitors had improved flow-mediated dilation after 2 to 4 years of follow-up (mean [95% CI]: 6.6% [6.0-7.2] versus 5.3% [4.7-5.9]; P=0.005), whereas no effect was observed following statin use (6.2% [5.5-6.8] versus 5.8% [5.1-6.4]; P=0.358). In the observational study, patients classed as high-risk based on albumin-creatinine ratio showed evidence of endothelial dysfunction at the end of follow-up (flow-mediated dilation=4.8% [3.8-5.9] versus 6.3% [5.8-6.7] for high-risk versus low-risk groups; P=0.015). Neither reactive hyperemia index nor pulse wave velocity were affected by either treatment (P>0.05 for both), but both were found to increase over the duration of follow-up (0.07 [0.03-0.12]; P=0.001 and 0.5 m/s [0.4-0.6]; P<0.001 for reactive hyperemia index and pulse wave velocity, respectively). ACE inhibitors improve endothelial function in high-risk adolescents as they transition through puberty. The longer-term protective effects of this intervention at this early age remain to be determined. Registration- URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier NCT01581476

The role of guidelines and the patient's life-style in GPs' management of hypercholesterolaemia

BACKGROUND: Recent Swedish and joint European guidelines on hyperlipidaemia stress the high coronary risk for patients with already established arterio-sclerotic disease (secondary prevention) or diabetes. For the remaining group, calculation of the ten-year risk for coronary events using the Framingham equation is suggested. There is evidence that use of and adherence to guidelines is incomplete and that tools for risk estimations are seldom used. Intuitive risk estimates are difficult and systematically biased. The purpose of the study was to examine how GPs use knowledge of guidelines in their decisions to recommend or not recommend a cholesterol-lowering drug and the reasons for their decisions. METHODS: Twenty GPs were exposed to six case vignettes presented on a computer. In the course of six screens, successively more information was added to the case. The doctors were instructed to think aloud while processing the cases (Think-Aloud Protocols) and finally to decide for or against drug treatment. After the six cases they were asked to describe how they usually reason when they meet patients with high cholesterol values (Free-Report Protocols). The two sets of protocols were coded for cause-effect relations that were supposed to reflect the doctors' knowledge of guidelines. The Think-Aloud Protocols were also searched for reasons for the decisions to prescribe or not to prescribe. RESULTS: According to the protocols, the GPs were well aware of the importance of previous coronary heart disease and diabetes in their decisions. On the other hand, only a few doctors mentioned other arterio-sclerotic diseases like stroke and peripheral artery disease as variables affecting their decisions. There were several instances when the doctors' decisions apparently deviated from their knowledge of the guidelines. The arguments for the decisions in these cases often concerned aspects of the patient's life-style like smoking or overweight- either as risk-increasing factors or as alternative strategies for intervention. CONCLUSIONS: Coding verbal protocols for knowledge and for decision arguments seems to be a valuable tool for increasing our understanding of how guidelines are used in the on treatment of hypercholesterolaemia. By analysing arguments for treatment decisions it was often possible to understand why departures from the guidelines were made. While the need for decision support is obvious, the current guidelines may be too simple in some respects

Subjects with Molecularly Defined Familial Hypercholesterolemia or Familial Defective apoB-100 Are Not Being Adequately Treated

To study whether subjects with a molecular genetic diagnosis of familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) or familial defective apoB-100 (FDB) are being adequately treated.A questionnaire regarding medical history was sent to 2611 subjects who had been provided with a molecular genetic diagnosis of FH or FDB, and a blood sample was obtained for lipid measurements.956 (36.6%) of the 2611 subjects participated. The mean age for starting lipid-lowering therapy was 33.4 (±12.1) years. Among those below 18 years of age, only 20.4% were on lipid-lowering drugs, whereas 89.1% of those aged 18 and above were on lipid-lowering drugs. The mean levels of total serum cholesterol and LDL-cholesterol were 5.7 (±1.5) mmol/l and 3.9 (±1.3) mmol/l, respectively. Among those who were on lipid-lowering drugs, 29.0% and 12.2% had levels of LDL cholesterol below 3.0 mmol/l and 2.6 mmol/l, respectively. Only 47.3% of the 956 subjects were considered as being adequately treated largely due to a failure to titrate their drug regimens. From the use of cholesterol-years score, lipid-lowering therapy must start before the age of 20 in order to prevent the subjects from contracting premature coronary heart disease.The majority of FH/FDB subjects are being diagnosed late in life and are not being adequately treated. In order to prevent them from contracting premature coronary heart disease, it is key that levels of LDL cholesterol are normalized from a young age and that sufficient doses of lipid-lowering drugs are being used

Patients’ Perceptions and Experiences of Familial Hypercholesterolemia, Cascade Genetic Screening and Treatment

Background: Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is a serious genetic disorder affecting approximately 1 in every 300 to 500 individuals and is characterised by excessively high low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol levels, substantially increased risk of early-onset coronary heart disease (CHD) and premature mortality. If FH is untreated, it leads to a greater than 50 % risk of CHD in men by the age of 50 and at least 30 % in women by the age of 60. FH can be diagnosed through genetic screening and effectively managed through pharmacological treatment and lifestyle changes. Purpose: Familial hypercholesterolemia (FH) is a genetic health condition that increases the risk of cardiovascular disease. Although FH can be effectively managed with appropriate pharmacological and dietary interventions, FH detection rate through genetic screening remains low. The present study explored perceptions and experiences of FH patients (N = 18) involved in a genetic cascade screening programme. Methods: Face-to-face interviews were conducted to assess patients’ knowledge and understanding of FH, explore factors linked to adherence to health-protective behaviours and examine perceptions of genetic screening. Results: Thematic analysis of interviews revealed four themes: disease knowledge, severity of FH, lifestyle behavioural change and barriers to cascade screening and treatment. Participants recognised FH as a permanent, genetic condition that increased their risk of CHD and premature mortality. Many participants dismissed the seriousness of FH and the importance of lifestyle changes because they perceived it to be effectively managed through medication. Despite positive attitudes toward screening, many participants reported that relatives were reluctant to attend screening due to their relatives’ ‘fatalistic’ outlook or low motivation. Participants believed that they had insufficient authority or control to persuade family members to attend screening and welcomed greater hospital assistance for contact with relatives. Conclusions: Findings support the adoption of direct methods of recruitment to cascade screening led by medical professionals, who were perceived as having greater authority. Other implications included the need for clinicians to provide clear information, particularly to those who are asymptomatic, related to the seriousness of FH and the necessity for adherence to medication and lifestyle changes

Database of epidemic trends and control measures during the first wave of COVID-19 in mainland China.

OBJECTIVES: In this data collation study, we aimed to provide a comprehensive database describing the epidemic trends and responses during the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) throughout the main provinces in China. METHODS: From mid-January to March 2020, we extracted publicly available data regarding the spread and control of COVID-19 from 31 provincial health authorities and major media outlets in mainland China. Based on these data, we conducted descriptive analyses of the epidemic in the six most-affected provinces. RESULTS: School closures, travel restrictions, community-level lockdown, and contact tracing were introduced concurrently around late January but subsequent epidemic trends differed among provinces. Compared with Hubei, the other five most-affected provinces reported a lower crude case fatality ratio and proportion of critical and severe hospitalised cases. From March 2020, as the local transmission of COVID-19 declined, switching the focus of measures to the testing and quarantine of inbound travellers may have helped to sustain the control of the epidemic. CONCLUSIONS: Aggregated indicators of case notifications and severity distributions are essential for monitoring an epidemic. A publicly available database containing these indicators and information regarding control measures is a useful resource for further research and policy planning in response to the COVID-19 epidemic