ANALISIS DETERMINAN TOTAL PERDAGANGAN INDONESIA DENGAN NEGARA ANGGOTA ASSOCIATION OF SOUTH EAST ASIAN NATIONS (ASEAN): PENDEKATAN GRAVITY MODEL PERIODE 1999-2010

ABSTRACT DETI HAPSARI. The Determinant Analysis of Total Trade of Indonesia with Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Country Members: Gravity Model Approach, Period of 1999-2010. Faculty of Economics, State University of Jakarta. 2013. This study examined the determinant of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Indonesia, GDP of ASEAN country members, and Economic Distance between Indonesia and ASEAN country members to Total Trade of Indonesia with ASEAN country members. The reseacher also determined the implementation of ASEAN Free Trade Area (AFTA) as a dummy variable. The reasearch was done by considering the constant price GDP of Indonesia and ASEAN country members with 2005 as the base year, and economic distance between Indonesia and those countries (Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Philipines, Brunei Darussalam, Viet Nam, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Myanmar and Cambodia) in the period 1999-2010 by ex post facto method with panel data analysis. Most of the data were taken from Statistic Division of ASEAN Secretariat and United Nation statistic publication. The data processing used EViews 7.2 program and Microsoft Excel 2010. The result of chow test, LM-test and hausman test chosed fixed effect model with cross-section weights as the best estimating model of this research. Based on the best model, the GDP of Indonesia had a significant positive influence. On the other hand, the GDP of ASEAN country members and Economic Distance had a significant negative influence. Whereas the implementation of AFTA had an insignificant positive influence to total Trade Indonesia with ASEAN country members. At 95% confidence level, the value of F-stat (1033,33) > F-table (1,8555) showed that all of independent variables (simultaneously) significantly influenced the dependent variable and the value of Adjusted R-squared is 0,991 indicated that 99,1% of Total Trade Indonesia with ASEAN country members could be explained by those independent variables. Keywords: AFTA, Economic Distance, GDP, Gravity Model, Panel Data, Trade