28 research outputs found
Scaling of stochasticity in dengue hemorrhagic fever epidemics
In this paper we analyze the stochastic version of a minimalistic multi-strain model,
which captures essential differences between primary and secondary infections in dengue
fever epidemiology, and investigate the interplay between stochasticity, seasonality and
import. The introduction of stochasticity is needed to explain the fluctuations observed
in some of the available data sets, revealing a scenario where noise and complex
deterministic skeleton strongly interact. For large enough population size, the stochastic
system can be well described by the deterministic skeleton gaining insight on the relevant
parameter values purely on topological information of the dynamics, rather than classical
parameter estimation of which application is in general restricted to fairly simple
dynamical scenarios