Biomass offsets little or none of permafrost carbon release from soils, streams, and wildfire: an expert assessment

As the permafrost region warms, its large organic carbon pool will be increasingly vulnerable to decomposition, combustion, and hydrologic export. Models predict that some portion of this release will be offset by increased production of Arctic and boreal biomass; however, the lack of robust estimates of net carbon balance increases the risk of further overshooting international emissions targets. Precise empirical or model-based assessments of the critical factors driving carbon balance are unlikely in the near future, so to address this gap, we present estimates from 98 permafrost-region experts of the response of biomass, wildfire, and hydrologic carbon flux to climate change. Results suggest that contrary to model projections, total permafrost-region biomass could decrease due to water stress and disturbance, factors that are not adequately incorporated in current models. Assessments indicate that end-of-the-century organic carbon release from Arctic rivers and collapsing coastlines could increase by 75% while carbon loss via burning could increase four-fold. Experts identified water balance, shifts in vegetation community, and permafrost degradation as the key sources of uncertainty in predicting future system response. In combination with previous findings, results suggest the permafrost region will become a carbon source to the atmosphere by 2100 regardless of warming scenario but that 65%–85% of permafrost carbon release can still be avoided if human emissions are actively reduced

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol—which is a marker of cardiovascular risk—changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95% credible interval 3.7 million–4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world.</p

Repositioning of the global epicentre of non-optimal cholesterol

High blood cholesterol is typically considered a feature of wealthy western countries1,2. However, dietary and behavioural determinants of blood cholesterol are changing rapidly throughout the world3 and countries are using lipid-lowering medications at varying rates. These changes can have distinct effects on the levels of high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol and non-HDL cholesterol, which have different effects on human health4,5. However, the trends of HDL and non-HDL cholesterol levels over time have not been previously reported in a global analysis. Here we pooled 1,127 population-based studies that measured blood lipids in 102.6 million individuals aged 18 years and older to estimate trends from 1980 to 2018 in mean total, non-HDL and HDL cholesterol levels for 200 countries. Globally, there was little change in total or non-HDL cholesterol from 1980 to 2018. This was a net effect of increases in low- and middle-income countries, especially in east and southeast Asia, and decreases in high-income western countries, especially those in northwestern Europe, and in central and eastern Europe. As a result, countries with the highest level of non-HDL cholesterol�which is a marker of cardiovascular risk�changed from those in western Europe such as Belgium, Finland, Greenland, Iceland, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland and Malta in 1980 to those in Asia and the Pacific, such as Tokelau, Malaysia, The Philippines and Thailand. In 2017, high non-HDL cholesterol was responsible for an estimated 3.9 million (95 credible interval 3.7 million�4.2 million) worldwide deaths, half of which occurred in east, southeast and south Asia. The global repositioning of lipid-related risk, with non-optimal cholesterol shifting from a distinct feature of high-income countries in northwestern Europe, north America and Australasia to one that affects countries in east and southeast Asia and Oceania should motivate the use of population-based policies and personal interventions to improve nutrition and enhance access to treatment throughout the world. © 2020, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited

Rising rural body-mass index is the main driver of the global obesity epidemic in adults

Body-mass index (BMI) has increased steadily in most countries in parallel with a rise in the proportion of the population who live in cities 1,2 . This has led to a widely reported view that urbanization is one of the most important drivers of the global rise in obesity 3�6 . Here we use 2,009 population-based studies, with measurements of height and weight in more than 112 million adults, to report national, regional and global trends in mean BMI segregated by place of residence (a rural or urban area) from 1985 to 2017. We show that, contrary to the dominant paradigm, more than 55 of the global rise in mean BMI from 1985 to 2017�and more than 80 in some low- and middle-income regions�was due to increases in BMI in rural areas. This large contribution stems from the fact that, with the exception of women in sub-Saharan Africa, BMI is increasing at the same rate or faster in rural areas than in cities in low- and middle-income regions. These trends have in turn resulted in a closing�and in some countries reversal�of the gap in BMI between urban and rural areas in low- and middle-income countries, especially for women. In high-income and industrialized countries, we noted a persistently higher rural BMI, especially for women. There is an urgent need for an integrated approach to rural nutrition that enhances financial and physical access to healthy foods, to avoid replacing the rural undernutrition disadvantage in poor countries with a more general malnutrition disadvantage that entails excessive consumption of low-quality calories. © 2019, The Author(s)

Concentrations of persistent organochlorine compounds in human milk and placenta are higher in Denmark than in Finland

A significantly reduced male reproductive health status, including a higher prevalence of cryptorchidism and hypospadias, has been documented in Danish men compared with Finnish men. Exposure to environmental pollutants with endocrine disrupting activities has been suggested as a possible contributing factor. In this study, we investigated whether there was a difference in milk and placental concentrations of persistent organohalogen compounds, between the two countries. METHODS: Organohalogens were analysed by high-resolution gas chromatography-high-resolution mass spectrometry in human milk samples from Finland (n = 65) and Denmark (n = 65) and in placentas from Finland (n = 112) and Denmark (n = 168). RESULTS: 1,1-dichloro-2,2-bis(4-chlorophenyl)ethane (p,p&#39;-DDE) was the dominant pollutant. beta-Hexa-chloro-cyclohexane (beta-HCH), hexachlorobenzene (HCB), endosulfan-I, dieldrin, oxychlordane (OXC), cis-heptachloroepoxide (c-HE) and 1,1,1-trichloro-2,2-bis(4-chlorophenyl)ethane (p,p&#39;-DDT) were the other main organochlorines detected. Danish samples had significantly higher concentrations of p,p&#39;-DDE, p,p&#39;-DDT, beta-HCH, HCB, dieldrin, c-HE and OXC than did the Finnish samples. Levels of organobrominated compounds were very low and most were undetectable in the majority of samples. BB-153 and BB-155 were the most abundant polybromobiphenyl congeners. BB-153 was more abundant in Danish milk samples compared with Finnish samples, whereas BB-155 was more abundant in the Finnish milk. CONCLUSIONS: The organochlorine levels were higher in Danish, than in Finnish, samples, suggesting a higher exposure for Danish infants

From mother to child: Investigation of prenatal and postnatal exposure to persistent bioaccumulating toxicants using breast milk and placenta biomonitoring.

The exposure levels of placenta and paired breast milk samples to selected organochlorine compounds and pesticides from Danish and Finnish samples have been investigated. p,p?-DDE is the dominant pollutant, ?-HCH, hexachlorobenzene, endosulfan-I, dieldrin, oxychlordane, cis-heptachlor epoxide and p,p?-DDT being the other major constituents. Their concentrations are linearly correlated between milk and placenta in similar patterns for Danish and Finnish samples. Milk samples have higher levels of these pollutants than placenta on lipid base. However, the apparently not correlated compounds, such as ?-HCH, pentachlorobenzene, pentachloroanisole and methoxychlor, are generally accumulated more in placenta, which may suggest a tissue specific metabolic activity. Thus, depending on the compound of interest, biomonitoring may be done in placenta only or in both matrices