Memory effects in microscopic traffic models and wide scattering in flow-density data

By means of microscopic simulations we show that non-instantaneous adaptation of the driving behaviour to the traffic situation together with the conventional measurement method of flow-density data can explain the observed inverse-$\lambda$ shape and the wide scattering of flow-density data in ``synchronized'' congested traffic. We model a memory effect in the response of drivers to the traffic situation for a wide class of car-following models by introducing a new dynamical variable describing the adaptation of drivers to the surrounding traffic situation during the past few minutes (``subjective level of service'') and couple this internal state to parameters of the underlying model that are related to the driving style. % For illustration, we use the intelligent-driver model (IDM) as underlying model, characterize the level of service solely by the velocity and couple the internal variable to the IDM parameter ``netto time gap'', modelling an increase of the time gap in congested traffic (``frustration effect''), that is supported by single-vehicle data. % We simulate open systems with a bottleneck and obtain flow-density data by implementing ``virtual detectors''. Both the shape, relative size and apparent ``stochasticity'' of the region of the scattered data points agree nearly quantitatively with empirical data. Wide scattering is even observed for identical vehicles, although the proposed model is a time-continuous, deterministic, single-lane car-following model with a unique fundamental diagram.Comment: 8 pages, submitted to Physical Review

Empirical Traffic Data and Their Implications for Traffic Modeling

From single vehicle data a number of new empirical results about the temporal evolution, correlation, and density-dependence of macroscopic traffic quantities have been determined. These have relevant implications for traffic modeling and allow to test existing traffic models.Comment: For related work see http://www.theo2.physik.uni-stuttgart.de/helbing.htm

Derivation, Properties, and Simulation of a Gas-Kinetic-Based, Non-Local Traffic Model

We derive macroscopic traffic equations from specific gas-kinetic equations, dropping some of the assumptions and approximations made in previous papers. The resulting partial differential equations for the vehicle density and average velocity contain a non-local interaction term which is very favorable for a fast and robust numerical integration, so that several thousand freeway kilometers can be simulated in real-time. The model parameters can be easily calibrated by means of empirical data. They are directly related to the quantities characterizing individual driver-vehicle behavior, and their optimal values have the expected order of magnitude. Therefore, they allow to investigate the influences of varying street and weather conditions or freeway control measures. Simulation results for realistic model parameters are in good agreement with the diverse non-linear dynamical phenomena observed in freeway traffic.Comment: For related work see http://www.theo2.physik.uni-stuttgart.de/helbing.html and http://www.theo2.physik.uni-stuttgart.de/treiber.htm

Gas-Kinetic-Based Traffic Model Explaining Observed Hysteretic Phase Transition

Recently, hysteretic transitions to `synchronized traffic' with high values of both density and traffic flow were observed on German freeways [B. S. Kerner and H. Rehborn, Phys. Rev. Lett. 79, 4030 (1997)]. We propose a macroscopic traffic model based on a gas-kinetic approach that can explain this phase transition. The results suggest a general mechanism for the formation of probably the most common form of congested traffic.Comment: With corrected formula (3). For related work see http://www.theo2.physik.uni-stuttgart.de/helbing.htm

Generalized Force Model of Traffic Dynamics

Floating car data of car-following behavior in cities were compared to existing microsimulation models, after their parameters had been calibrated to the experimental data. With these parameter values, additional simulations have been carried out, e.g. of a moving car which approaches a stopped car. It turned out that, in order to manage such kinds of situations without producing accidents, improved traffic models are needed. Good results have been obtained with the proposed generalized force model.Comment: For related work see http://www.theo2.physik.uni-stuttgart.de/helbing.htm

Stability of cooperation under image scoring in group interactions

Image scoring sustains cooperation in the repeated two-player prisoner's dilemma through indirect reciprocity, even though defection is the uniquely dominant selfish behaviour in the one-shot game. Many real-world dilemma situations, however, firstly, take place in groups and, secondly, lack the necessary transparency to inform subjects reliably of others' individual past actions. Instead, there is revelation of information regarding groups, which allows for `group scoring' but not for image scoring. Here, we study how sensitive the positive results related to image scoring are to information based on group scoring. We combine analytic results and computer simulations to specify the conditions for the emergence of cooperation. We show that under pure group scoring, that is, under the complete absence of image-scoring information, cooperation is unsustainable. Away from this extreme case, however, the necessary degree of image scoring relative to group scoring depends on the population size and is generally very small. We thus conclude that the positive results based on image scoring apply to a much broader range of informational settings that are relevant in the real world than previously assumed.Comment: 6 two-column pages, 4 figures; accepted for publication in Scientific Report

Pedestrian, Crowd, and Evacuation Dynamics

This contribution describes efforts to model the behavior of individual pedestrians and their interactions in crowds, which generate certain kinds of self-organized patterns of motion. Moreover, this article focusses on the dynamics of crowds in panic or evacuation situations, methods to optimize building designs for egress, and factors potentially causing the breakdown of orderly motion.Comment: This is a review paper. For related work see http://www.soms.ethz.c

Structure and Instability of High-Density Equations for Traffic Flow

Similar to the treatment of dense gases, fluid-dynamic equations for the dynamics of congested vehicular traffic are derived from Enskog-like kinetic equations. These contain additional terms due to the anisotropic vehicle interactions. The calculations are carried out up to Navier-Stokes order. A linear instability analysis indicates an additional kind of instability compared to previous macroscopic traffic models. The relevance for describing granular flows is outlined.Comment: For related work see http://www.theo2.physik.uni-stuttgart.de/helbing.htm

Long-lived states in synchronized traffic flow. Empirical prompt and dynamical trap model

The present paper proposes a novel interpretation of the widely scattered states (called synchronized traffic) stimulated by Kerner's hypotheses about the existence of a multitude of metastable states in the fundamental diagram. Using single vehicle data collected at the German highway A1, temporal velocity patterns have been analyzed to show a collection of certain fragments with approximately constant velocities and sharp jumps between them. The particular velocity values in these fragments vary in a wide range. In contrast, the flow rate is more or less constant because its fluctuations are mainly due to the discreteness of traffic flow. Subsequently, we develop a model for synchronized traffic that can explain these characteristics. Following previous work (I.A.Lubashevsky, R.Mahnke, Phys. Rev. E v. 62, p. 6082, 2000) the vehicle flow is specified by car density, mean velocity, and additional order parameters $h$ and $a$ that are due to the many-particle effects of the vehicle interaction. The parameter $h$ describes the multilane correlations in the vehicle motion. Together with the car density it determines directly the mean velocity. The parameter $a$, in contrast, controls the evolution of $h$ only. The model assumes that $a$ fluctuates randomly around the value corresponding to the car configuration optimal for lane changing. When it deviates from this value the lane change is depressed for all cars forming a local cluster. Since exactly the overtaking manoeuvres of these cars cause the order parameter $a$ to vary, the evolution of the car arrangement becomes frozen for a certain time. In other words, the evolution equations form certain dynamical traps responsible for the long-time correlations in the synchronized mode.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, RevTeX

Evolutionary Dynamics of Populations with Conflicting Interactions: Classification and Analytical Treatment Considering Asymmetry and Power

Evolutionary game theory has been successfully used to investigate the dynamics of systems, in which many entities have competitive interactions. From a physics point of view, it is interesting to study conditions under which a coordination or cooperation of interacting entities will occur, be it spins, particles, bacteria, animals, or humans. Here, we analyze the case, where the entities are heterogeneous, particularly the case of two populations with conflicting interactions and two possible states. For such systems, explicit mathematical formulas will be determined for the stationary solutions and the associated eigenvalues, which determine their stability. In this way, four different types of system dynamics can be classified, and the various kinds of phase transitions between them will be discussed. While these results are interesting from a physics point of view, they are also relevant for social, economic, and biological systems, as they allow one to understand conditions for (1) the breakdown of cooperation, (2) the coexistence of different behaviors ("subcultures"), (2) the evolution of commonly shared behaviors ("norms"), and (4) the occurrence of polarization or conflict. We point out that norms have a similar function in social systems that forces have in physics