Developing and validating a predictive model for stroke progression

<p><b>Background:</b> Progression is believed to be a common and important complication in acute stroke, and has been associated with increased mortality and morbidity. Reliable identification of predictors of early neurological deterioration could potentially benefit routine clinical care. The aim of this study was to identify predictors of early stroke progression using two independent patient cohorts.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> Two patient cohorts were used for this study – the first cohort formed the training data set, which included consecutive patients admitted to an urban teaching hospital between 2000 and 2002, and the second cohort formed the test data set, which included patients admitted to the same hospital between 2003 and 2004. A standard definition of stroke progression was used. The first cohort (n = 863) was used to develop the model. Variables that were statistically significant (p < 0.1) on univariate analysis were included in the multivariate model. Logistic regression was the technique employed using backward stepwise regression to drop the least significant variables (p > 0.1) in turn. The second cohort (n = 216) was used to test the performance of the model. The performance of the predictive model was assessed in terms of both calibration and discrimination. Multiple imputation methods were used for dealing with the missing values.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> Variables shown to be significant predictors of stroke progression were conscious level, history of coronary heart disease, presence of hyperosmolarity, CT lesion, living alone on admission, Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project classification, presence of pyrexia and smoking status. The model appears to have reasonable discriminative properties [the median receiver-operating characteristic curve value was 0.72 (range 0.72–0.73)] and to fit well with the observed data, which is indicated by the high goodness-of-fit p value [the median p value from the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was 0.90 (range 0.50–0.92)].</p> <p><b>Conclusion:</b> The predictive model developed in this study contains variables that can be easily collected in practice therefore increasing its usability in clinical practice. Using this analysis approach, the discrimination and calibration of the predictive model appear sufficiently high to provide accurate predictions. This study also offers some discussion around the validation of predictive models for wider use in clinical practice.</p&gt

Identification of Trace Organic Components in the CR Chondrites by 4D TOFMS

This paper reports preliminary results of a 4D TOFMS study of CR chondrite organic material, highlighting the low-level organic species that may further reveal the complexity of parent body modification of interstellar precursors

Production of high molecular weight organic compounds on the surfaces of amorphous iron silicate catalysts: Implications for organic synthesis in the solar nebula

The high molecular weight organic products of Fischer-Tropsch/Haber-Bosch syntheses on the surfaces of Fe-silicate catalysts have been studied by GCMS

A Review on House Design with Energy Saving System in the UK

This document is the Accepted Manuscript version of the following article: Y. Xie, M. S. Gilmour, Y. Yuan, H. Jin, and H. Wu, ‘A review on house design with energy saving system in the UK’, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 71, pp. 29-52, first published online 10 January 2017. Under embargo. Embargo end date: 10 January 2018. This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ The version of record is available online at doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.app/thermaleng.2017.01.003 © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.As part of EU incentives, the UK government have set ambitious environmental targets relating to energy consumption including a reduction of carbon emissions of 80% by 2050. The use of various technologies can help meet these targets as well as providing a secure energy source for the UK in the future. This research took the UK as a case study and investigated where reduction measures are most suited to reduce energy consumption. This paper presents a review on the current state-of-the-art on the domestic technology available, in particular solar energy, heat pumps, phase changing materials (PCMs) and micro combined heat and power (micro-CHP) systems, aiming at identifying research and development opportunities for energy saving in these fields. Furthermore, the financial as well as environmental aspects are assessed as these are the two key considerations of typical household. A typical UK house design, including the floor plan, is created through the use of computer aided design (CAD) software. The house design gives a payback period between 8.7 years at best and 11.6 years at worst.Peer reviewe

Multi-transmission-line-beam interactive system

We construct here a Lagrangian field formulation for a system consisting of an electron beam interacting with a slow-wave structure modeled by a possibly non-uniform multiple transmission line (MTL). In the case of a single line we recover the linear model of a traveling wave tube (TWT) due to J.R. Pierce. Since a properly chosen MTL can approximate a real waveguide structure with any desired accuracy, the proposed model can be used in particular for design optimization. Furthermore, the Lagrangian formulation provides for: (i) a clear identification of the mathematical source of amplification, (ii) exact expressions for the conserved energy and its flux distributions obtained from the Noether theorem. In the case of uniform MTLs we carry out an exhaustive analysis of eigenmodes and find sharp conditions on the parameters of the system to provide for amplifying regimes

Aromatic moieties in meteorites: relics of interstellar grain processes?

The carbonaceous chondrite meteorites contain a record of the formation of the solar system, part of which is present within organic matter. This organic matter is predominantly aromatic, and its sources remain controversial. The δ13C values for individual free and macromolecular aromatic moieties from Cold Bokkeveld and Murchison suggest that these units originate from radiation-induced ``circle'' reactions involving simultaneous bond synthesis and cracking. Large carbon isotope fractionations and a deuterium enrichment for these entities suggest that these reactions occurred in a dense interstellar cloud. The juxtaposition of the synthesis and cracking products implies that the reactions occurred in a restricting medium, the most likely candidate for which is the icy organic mantles of interstellar grains. In contrast, the δ13C record in aromatic moieties from Orgueil is mostly obscured, possibly due to the increased levels of parent body aqueous alteration experienced by this meteorite. These novel observations are consistent with the interstellar-parent body hypothesis, where the final form of meteoritic organic matter results from the transfiguration of interstellar organic precursors by aqueous reactions on the meteorite parent body